Best NASCAR Cup Series Bets and Predictions for the Go Bowling at the Glen in Watkins Glen

The betting market has always loved Shane Van Gisbergen on road courses.

It has reached new levels this week.

For Sunday's Go Bowling at the Glen, Van Gisbergen is +125 to win in FanDuel Sportsbook's NASCAR betting odds. It's effectively an unheard-of number in the Cup Series.

And it's actually a value for me.

I've got Van Gisbergen at 46.1% to win, up from 44.4% implied at +125. I don't want to bet him at that number (though I would happily do so at +140 or longer), but I understand why the model is so high on him. SVG has won four of six road-course races he has run with Trackhouse Racing, and he nearly won here last year while driving for Kaulig. He's a sicko.

But given my model may be undervaluing youngster Connor Zilisch, I prefer to live in the non-outright markets to start. Let's dig into what my full sims say about the week before practice, and then we can outline my favorite bets as things stand.

(NOTE: The sims are now updated post-qualifying. Zilisch has been forced to withdraw from the race due to an injury he sustained after winning yesterday's Xfinity Series race.)

NASCAR Predictions for Watkins Glen

NASCAR Betting Picks for Watkins Glen

Chase Elliott to Finish Top 5 (+180)

(UPDATE: Elliott has since lengthened to +290 to finish top 5. This is because Elliott qualified 20th, giving him a tough path. However, Elliott had good speed in practice, so he is a pretty big value to me at +290, and I also have him as the best outright bet on the board at +2500.)

Chase Elliott is rounding back into form on road courses, having finished top-five in four of the past five races on this track type. When you put him at easily his best of the bunch, I'm not gonna lay off.

Elliott won here in dominant fashion in 2018 and 2019, was runner-up in 2021, and finished fourth in 2022. The past two years have underwhelmed, but as mentioned, his form is back on the ascent.

In 2025, specifically, Elliott's lone non-top-five at a road course came in Chicago, which is as different from Watkins Glen as you can get. That's why my model has him at 40.3% for a top-five, up from 35.7% implied at +180. I'm also showing value on William Byron (+170) and Christopher Bell (+190) in this same market if you want extra swipes.

Ryan Blaney to Finish Top 10 (+330)

(UPDATE: Because he won the pole, Blaney has since shortened to -240 to finish top 10. He is no longer a value at that number.)

The speed of Watkins Glen makes it more equipment-centric than other road courses, which provides a boost for Ryan Blaney in a Penske car. He has been strong enough this year for me to think he can cash this ticket.

Blaney has opened the year with a top-20 average running position in all four road course races. His lone mark outside the top 15 came in Sonoma, when he got pushed off track while running well inside the top 10.

Blaney has finished top 10 in 3 of 8 career races at Watkins Glen, a 37.5% rate. His implied odds at +330 are 23.3%. He does get a downgrade in my model because Penske's general form on road courses has been poor the past two years, but even with that, it still has him at 27.3%. Blaney's general speed on road courses this year is good enough for me to back him.

Ryan Preece to Finish Top 10 (+350)

(UPDATE: Preece has since lengthened to +550 to finish top 10. He did decline in my sims a bit due to a lack of pace Saturday, but I have him at 17.6% to finish top 10, making him a slight value at +550.)

Before joining RFK Racing, Ryan Preece would often have speed on road courses, but he'd fail to convert it into a finish. This year has been different, and I like him quite a bit as a result.

Preece has run four road-races with his new team. He has had a top-17 average running position in all of them, and he finished top-15 in three. That includes a seventh-place finish in Chicago.

Entering 2025, Preece had two career top-10s on road courses. One of those actually came in Watkins Glen when he finished ninth with Stewart-Haas Racing last year. Now that we've seen he has the equipment to compete, he should be able to duplicate that performance.

I've got Preece at 30.0% to finish top 10, up from 22.2% implied. This is currently my favorite bet on the board.

Post-Qualifying Addition: Christopher Bell to Finish Top 5 (+350)

Bell didn't necessarily have great speed in practice, but he did qualify ninth. Thus, I'm a bit surprised he lengthened as much as he did when odds re-opened. I think it gives us a good window to buy low.

Bell ranked 18th and 14th in the 4- and 8-lap practice splits of my model, which included a group speed differential adjustment. While that's not bad, he also wasn't completely out to lunch.

Bell already has one road-course win this year, getting that done at COTA. He was runner-up in Mexico City and fifth in Sonoma, so the form is top-tier. Bell hasn't been as good historically at Watkins Glen, but he did finish third in 2023. I agree with what the model says, and it has Bell at 32.5% to finish top 5.

Post-Qualifying Addition: Ty Gibbs to Finish Top 10 (+170)

I have value on Ty Gibbs across the board (win +4500, top 5 +600). His Saturday speed was middling enough where I'm willing to take the most conservative bet, which is also a big value.

Gibbs will start 14th after ranking 17th and 18th in my model's 4- and 8-lap splits, respectively. It's just a fine output.

However, like Bell, he is in elite form on road courses. He had arguably the second best car in Mexico City, and he finished second in Chicago and seventh in Sonoma.

Gibbs was a threat to win at Watkins Glen during his rookie year when he finished fifth with a fourth-place average running position. I've got enough faith in him as a driver to think he can finish top-10 even with just a decent car. My model has him at 47.0% for a top-10, way above his 37.0% implied odds.

Post-Qualifying Addition: Austin Cindric to Finish Top 10 (+430)

Like Gibbs, I have value on Austin Cindric across the board, including at +22500 to win. I'll stick with the top-10, but he's someone I want to buy into somehow.

A lot of Fords had good speed Saturday, and that includes Cindric. He was 13th and 9th in my model's two practice splits, and he qualified 13th.

Although the finishes have been poor for Cindric this year, he's a good road racer. As a rookie, he finished top-10 in four of six races, and he was 13th at Watkins Glen that year. He finished 10th here last year before finishing fourth at Charlotte during the playoffs. He's better than his results would indicate.

That talent leads to the model having Cindric at 24.9% to finish top 10, up from 18.9% implied. Because he's not close to any other playoff drivers in the regular season points standings (and he's already locked in), I think Team Penske will allow Cindric to race for the win rather than prioritizing stage points. That benefits him in this market, as well.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.