Fantasy Football: Too Many Factors Are Working Against Amon-Ra St. Brown in 2025

The first pick of your fantasy draft is an important one to not bomb. From that perspective, I understand lunging toward Amon-Ra St. Brown anywhere past the elite top three.

St. Brown was relegated to part-time duty as a rookie in 2021, but since he's been a focal point of the Detroit Lions' offense, you've quite literally never been dissatisfied by the wideout in fantasy football. On a total points basis in half-PPR formats, "Sun God" was the WR8 in 2022, WR3 in 2023, and WR3 in 2024. A top-eight floor...not too shabby.

However, there's a lot of "new" in Detroit after another amazing, 15-2 season. Both coordinators have been poached from the team, and the Lions' vaunted offensive line is a bit different.

Obviously, the baseline expectation for the team is still quite high. However, with St. Brown currently coming off the board with an average draft position (ADP) of 9.8, it seems like the market has adjusted to expect St. Brown's worst full-time season of his career.

Is this appropriate, or is it a signal that we should avoid the wide receiver in the first round of drafts?

Note: A player's ADP data comes from FantasyPros' half-PPR data. The basis for rounds used in this piece is from 12-player leagues.

Detroit Lions Offseason Changes in Fantasy Football

There are two Detroit Lions projected in the first round of fantasy drafts this year. In addition to Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jahmyr Gibbs is usually floating around the top five. Overall, Detroit has five options coming off the board in the top 60 overall in ADP. Yowzers.

Here's the problem. Unlike last year, we flatly can't assume that the Lions will lead the NFL in total offensive touchdowns (68) by seven again.

Ben Johnson was the mastermind that took Detroit's offense to the next level. In a half season with Johnson in 2021, the team posted just 36 offensive touchdowns with St. Brown, Jared Goff, two talented running backs, and T.J. Hockenson in the fold as a decent allegory to Sam LaPorta. They finished with at least 53 in all three seasons with Johnson as the full-time playcaller.

It's a team-level issue that impacts overall scoring potential for all players, but via ADP, David Montgomery seems to be the party projected to suffer most.

Johnson wasn't the only departure, either. Center Frank Ragnow retired abruptly. The four-time Pro Bowler was only 29. The team also lost guard Kevin Zeitler in free agency. Detroit has been considered one of the best -- or the best -- offensive lines in the sport for most of Johnson's tenure, but Pro Football Focus (PFF) ranks them just an above-average 13th in their preseason evaluation.

Detroit didn't just lead the league in fantasy production. They did so by a lot. We're paying the piper for that in 2025 ADP, and if the Lions drop outside the top five in total scores this season, many of these picks could be in trouble. St. Brown is not immune to this problem.

Amon-Ra St. Brown 2025 Fantasy Football Outlook

Here's the hidden information that Amon-Ra St. Brown dynasty managers don't want you to know. Despite holding the same ranking (WR3) in 2024, St. Brown already took a step back last year. That's why his ADP has dropped in 2025 more than my aforementioned point.

St. Brown averaged 17.4 half-PPR fantasy points per game (FPPG) on a 30.4% target share in 2023. Last season, he posted just 15.3 FPPG on a 27.4% target share. This was with talented tight end Sam LaPorta (17.0% target share) taking a backseat that might not remain the case as St. Brown, LaPorta, and Jameson Williams jockey for targets that aren't super voluminous. Under Johnson, the team had the 12th-lowest pass rate over expectation (-3.4%) in 2024, and I'm not sure Dan Campbell will put any less of an emphasis on the run with John Morton.

Touchdowns, which we know are always fluky and shouldn't be relied on without opportunity, saved Amon-Ra's season.

St. Brown was just 22nd among receivers with at least 30 targets in end zone target share (32.3%), yet he was fifth in touchdowns per game (0.7) at the position. This isn't even factoring in the uphill battle of a 29.5% red zone opportunity share or better for both Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery out of the backfield in games they were active. Here's Detroit's full picture from inside the 20 last year:

At 0.7 touchdowns per red zone opportunity, Jamo ran nuclear hot in this category, but Amon-Ra St. Brown was second-luckiest in converting close opportunities to scores. If the tuddies start to drop, we could truly see the effect on St. Brown's fantasy totals.

Where Should St. Brown Go in Fantasy Drafts?

"Upside" is king in fantasy football. The reality is that, compared to 2024, there just really isn't anything about Amon-Ra St. Brown that provides optimism for him to outperform last season's efforts.

Between Johnson and two key offensive linemen leaving, any rational fantasy football mind would expect Detroit to take a step back from their league-best touchdown output a year ago. That's going to hurt this offense across the board. Not only has St. Brown's piece of the pie in the offense shrunk already, but a new mind could absolutely slide more targets the way of talented, former top-40 picks in the draft.

Plus, this is a Lions squad that is fundamentally built around the run, and they could be less efficient in that category because of the line changes, as well.

Even if this situation was unchanged, St. Brown is almost certainly a regression candidate in the touchdown column after outperforming his opportunities in 2024.

You also hate to think this way, but St. Brown also has missed just 2 of the Lions' last 51 regular season games. Injury luck is yet another factor that can't possibly get better even if the durable wideout is more likely than not to play a full schedule.

Realistically, that means that, in order to select St. Brown projecting a decrease in so many different areas and still get "upside", you'd probably need to get him in the second round.

Amon-Ra is probably closer to the projection of top wide receivers facing modest target competition on solid, rush-first offenses with average red zone work for their role. That sounds a lot more like A.J. Brown, Ladd McConkey, and Drake London than it does Puka Nacua or Malik Nabers.

Because St. Brown's historical consistency will largely produce a buyer in the late first round, I see myself avoiding "Sun God" in most drafts.

I'm much more interested in St. Brown's teammates, LaPorta and Montgomery. They didn't outperform their 2024 red zone opportunities and seem to be getting most of the brunt of a projected Lions dip without Johnson.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.