3 Best NFL Bets and Player Props for Cowboys at Commanders on Christmas Day

Even within a single NFL game, betting markets are abundant.

You've got everything from spreads and totals to touchdown scorers and player props at your disposal. It can be a lot to sort through.

So, which bets stand out on Christmas Day as the Dallas Cowboys take on the Washington Commanders? Let's dig into FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL betting odds to find out.

All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.

Cowboys at Commanders Christmas Day Betting Picks

Total Over 50.5 (-106)

Yeah, this is a lofty total when one of the teams is starting a backup quarterback. I just don't know if it matters with how rough these defenses are.

The Cowboys and Commanders enter Week 17 with the two worst defenses in the league, by numberFire's schedule-adjusted metrics. The Cowboys are letting up an average of 30.3 points per game, and the Commanders are at 26.9.

Yowza.

The Cowboys' offense should be able to do the heavy lifting here, but I do think Josh Johnson will be able to do at least something for the Commanders. They have a good infrastructure around him as they're numberFire's 17th-ranked offense despite having gobs of injuries on offense. They also still seem to be playing hard, which matters.

I'm pretty far above market on this game, which makes me uneasy. I do think that being high on the total is at least directionally accurate, so that's where I'll start with this game.

Treylon Burks Anytime Touchdown (+440)

I'm showing value on both Treylon Burks and Ben Sinnott (+550) to score, so you can pick your poison. I have a slight preference for Burks, personally.

With Jaylin Lane leaving early in Week 16, Burks ran a route on 88.0% of the team's drop backs. He earned five targets, including the team's lone end-zone target of the game.

That's not abnormal for Burks, who has 20.0% of the team's end-zone targets in the games he has played. His overall target per route rate is middling at 16.7%, but he's getting high-leverage looks.

With Lane on IR, I'm expecting Burks to be a near every-down player. That's enough for me to have his fair anytime touchdown odds at +410, so I like the +440 we're getting here.

Javonte Williams Under 75.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

Week 16 was the first game the Cowboys have played without the postseason on the line, and Javonte Williams' snap rate was -- by far -- the lowest it has been this year, minus Week 15 when he was in and out with a neck injury. They may be trying to scale him back, presenting some potential value in the under.

Not only was Williams' snap rate down, but so was his production. He had just 34 rushing yards, his second lowest mark of the season. Although the matchup is nice, they'll be on the road this time around.

To me, it feels like this prop line is treating Williams as status quo. Given the neck injury and the lowered stakes, that seems like a mistake. I'll take the under despite how juicy of a matchup it is.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.