Week 2 NFL Betting Trends: What History Says About Early-Season Takeaways

Research is a key component to NFL betting, and while some trends can really come across as flashy, we have to keep in mind that trends are descriptive. They tell us about what has happened.

If a team's star quarterback is out, his franchise's record against divisional opponents the last four years may not really be of use when digging into an upcoming matchup.

But even with that, it's good to know as much as we can before making up our minds.

So, I'll be looking to pinpoint some potentially noteworthy trends entering each week of the NFL season.

Note: All betting odds and trends since 2019, unless otherwise noted. All data from numberFire.

Week 2 Favorites Cover Less Often Than Week 1 Favorites

All offseason, we're waiting to see each of the 32 NFL teams in action, and no matter how firmly we feel about certain teams, Week 1 feels more ambiguous than Week 2.

However, since 2019, Week 1 favorites have won 64.5% of their games and covered 45.0% of the time.

In Week 2, the win rate of favored teams is virtually identical (64.6%), but their cover rate drops to 40.2%.

Specifically, home favorites have been weak against the spread (35.1% cover rate despite a 63.2% win rate) in Week 2.

Undefeated Teams -- At Home -- Might Be Overrated Compared to Winless Teams

Teams off to a 1-0 start facing teams that lost their opener have a win rate of 59.1% -- with a cover rate of 47.6%.

But 1-0 teams hosting 0-1 teams have a 52.9% win rate and a 33.3% cover rate.

This is a small sample (19 games), so let's not lose sight of that, but take an extra look at Week 1's underlying data before expecting home teams to romp 0-1 squads.

Scoring Typically Improves in Week 2

Week 1 games have averaged 44.87 points with a 42.0% over rate in our sample since 2019.

Week 2 games are at 45.48 and 47.9%, respectively. That shows a scoring increase, on average, plus a boost to the over rate.

We have to remember that overs are less likely (48.4%) than unders overall, but Week 1 has historically been under-friendly (again, 42.0%).

This year in Week 1, teams averaged just 20.66 points per game for 41.32 combined points per game.

Scoring isn't always low in Week 1. Since 2019, point totals have been 48.5, 47.4, 48.0, 42.1, 41.0, 45.8, and now 41.3. The two other years when scoring was below 42.5 in our sample, Week 2 games jumped up +1.5 points and +8.8 points to 43.6 and 49.8 points, respectively.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.