UFC 320 Best Bets and Props: Ankalaev vs. Pereira 2

If you crave violence, artistry, and competition in its purest form, the Ultimate Fighting Championship might be for you.

Colloquially known as "UFC," the world's largest mixed martial arts promotion holds around a dozen MMA fights a vast majority of weekends throughout the year. The promotion has fathered some of the largest combat-sport stars of the 21st century, including Conor McGregor, Khabib Nurmagomedov, and Jon Jones.

There are plenty of ways to get in on the action every Saturday. FanDuel Sportsbook provides MMA odds including moneylines, round totals, and prop bets for each fight.

Without further delay, here are a few best bets from UFC 320: Anakalev vs. Pereira 2, taking place at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada on Saturday.

UFC 320 Betting Picks

Punahele Soriano vs. Nikolay Veretennikov

Soriano by (T)KO or Points (-210)

Weight class shifts are one of the hardest parts of handicapping MMA. Punahele Soriano seems to be on the extremely favorable end of his.

Soriano mauled Miguel Baeza with 144 significant strikes and 5 takedowns in one of 2023's most dominant efforts without a finish. It took him just 31 seconds to crack Uros Medic's chin. On paper, the 1-2 record of Nikolay Veretinnikov is actually the easiest opponent he'll have seen at welterweight so far.

Veretennikov got a split decision against Francisco Prado, who is winless in the weight class. His -0.42 striking success rate (SSR) isn't ideal when he's only faced two combined wins at 170 pounds in three fights, and there's not much of a wrestling (18% takedown accuracy) threat. The Kazak fighter also hasn't attempted a sub in UFC.

The underdog's striking (46%) and takedown (62%) defense are sketchy enough to see Soriano repeating either gameplan with success. My model has him 61.9% likely to win by knockout or decision, and I don't have a strong verdict about the precise method.

Macy Chiasson vs. Yana Santos

Chiasson Wins Inside the Distance (+210)

I respect Yana Santos' career resurgence, but the fact she's back in the top 10 at women's bantamweight is probably an indictment of the division.

Santos is a low-power point fighter -- and a darn good one (+1.35 SSR) -- but has been finished in three of her five UFC losses, struggling with larger fighters like Cris Cyborg, Aspen Ladd, and Irene Aldana. That's especially been the case when it comes to takedown defense (53%) against these ladies. Here comes another massive fighter for the division in 5'11" Macy Chiasson.

Chiasson lands 2.08 takedowns per 15 minutes, but she's also got a surprising knockdown rate (0.47 KD%) for the division. With a stoppage for or against in 7 of her 12 career bouts, she's sort of an exception to the rule in a division where just 43% of fights end via early finish.

I've got Chiasson recording a knockout or submission 33.3% of the time in this one. Santos' poor takedown defense should open the door for Chiasson to use either her ground-and-pound attacks or submission offense to win the fight.

Edmen Shahbazyan vs. Andre Muniz

Muniz to Win (+225)
Muniz by Submission (+500)
Muniz by Submission in Round 2 or 3 (+734)

This is an interesting step up in competition for Edmen Shahbazyan.

The 27-year-old was in a main event in 2020 and has always been seen as a top prospect, but up to this point, the results haven't followed. He's 5-5 in his last 10 bouts, and the wins have come over foes a combined 23-27 with the promotion. He's yet to truly score a high-level win -- even with a path to victory to do so against Andre Muniz.

At 35, Muniz's chin is definitely starting to fail him. He's lost three of his last four by finish, but all came inside the 185-pound rankings -- or just outside it with top prospect Ikram Aliskerov (3-1 UFC). The grappling ace, otherwise, has a win over Junyong Park (9-3 UFC) that has aged like wine and proves to give him the late edge in that realm here.

There's no getting around it. This fight centers around Shahbazyan's 1.76 KD% producing the early bonk. Given this card placement close to his gym at Xtreme Couture, that's what UFC is banking on. However, I just don't think it's supremely reliable when he was unable to get it against Andre Petroski or Gerald Meerschaert -- a couple of chinny guys in their mid-30s with a combined eight UFC losses via (T)KO.

I've got the Brazilian still 41.8% likely to win this bout, and it's via a patented submission 20.7% of the time. Presumably, he'll realize he has an early storm to weather in this one when "The Golden Boy" is 3-5 in fights that reach the second round.

Abus Magomedov vs. Joe Pyfer

Magomedov to Win (+190)
Magomedov by Points (+500)

Questionable gas tanks but otherwise modest durability could make this a fuel-saving battle at middleweight.

Abus Magomedov draws the red corner when he's 5-2 in UFC and has only lost in the top 10 at 185 pounds. Joe Pyfer is still without a number next to his name after a convincing 2024 loss to Jack Hermansson, who has since left the division.

I'm really not certain Pyfer has improved. "Bodybagz" is an ultra-physical combatant who uses his power (2.01 KD%) and submission danger (0.7 sub attempts per 15) to overwhelm holes in opponents. His two trips beyond the seven-minute mark have been dicey, though, when looking at the "L" to Jack plus a lost third round against an undersized Kelvin Gastelum (14-10 UFC).

Magomedov, anecdotally, is the more technical striker even if Sean Strickland compromised his -0.47 SSR. Three inches of reach should serve him well, and he's only faced one takedown attempt in his area of expertise. Pyfer's 60% takedown D is a bit of a red flag even though I don't believe the German will grapple here.

I've only got Magomedov 40.1% likely to win, but it's him or pass against this ballooning line. Even in a fight -220 to not go the distance, Pyfer has never been finished as a pro, so it's a decision win for Abus 19.4% of the time.

Josh Emmett vs. Youssef Zalal

Zalal by Submission (+650)

What would this line have been in September 2022? Youssef Zalal was just cut from UFC, and Josh Emmett was less than six months from an unsuccessful UFC title shot.

As we know, though, three years can be an eternity in MMA. Zalal's four-fight win streak since returning has pushed him into the rankings. At 40, Emmett has dropped three of his last four and hasn't beaten a current featherweight since that aforementioned place in time.

To many's surprise, "The Moroccan Devil" took an entirely striking-oriented approach to dispatch Calvin Kattar earlier this year, and his +46 striking differential was quite the statement. I'm wondering if he gets back to basics here, though. Zalal submitted each of his first three foes in this second stint before the Kattar bout and averages 2.09 takedowns and 1.3 submission attempts per 15 minutes.

Matchmakers have done Emmett a favor to help him avoid many wrestlers, but his 46% takedown defense is awful. He was submitted in guard by Yair Rodriguez to lose that 2023 title opportunity. I've got a hypothesis that the knockout artist can't grapple anywhere close to a ranked level.

My model agrees. I've got Zalal 33.3% likely (+200 implied) to find a sub on Saturday.

Jiri Prochazka vs. Khalil Rountree Jr.

Prochazka to Win (-196)
Prochazka by Submission or Points (+410)

This was the most surprising model verdict of the week.

I've had Jiri Prochazka in near pick 'ems since he became model-eligible. It's kind of hard not to feel like his fights are coinflips between unbelievable offense (5.74 significant strikes landed per minute) with porous striking defense (43%). Nonetheless, only former 205-pound champ Alex Pereira has found the button to KO him in seven UFC fights.

Khalil Rountree Jr. certainly has power to put people out on paper, but his 2.28 KD% certainly feels a bit more hollow when he's dropped just one of three ranked foes he's faced. Rountree still remains one of the most overvalued fighters in UFC, per my model, when looking at a -0.45 SSR paired with a relatively untested 58% takedown D. He's lost all four fights where his opponent landed a takedown, but like Emmett, the schedule has been favorable.

Diehards might remember Prochazka has landed three takedowns in UFC and submitted former champion Glover Teixeira in their 2022 barnburner. Does the Czech fighter take a true path of least resistance?

I think these numbers are friendly enough to find out. I've got Jiri 68.3% likely to win (-214 implied) overall, but that's a submission or decision win a whopping 30.5% of the time. The knockout outcome is much more of a coinflip that could favor "Warhorse" as a 'dog. If I got one way to bet this fight, I think it'd be a small dart at the prop fading a Prochazka (T)KO in victory.

Merab Dvalishvili vs. Cory Sandhagen

Sandhagen to Win (+310)

I don't always fade dominant, incumbent champions, but it's always a challenge to back them as a value bettor. It might not be Cory Sandhagen that upsets Merab Dvalishvili, but "The Machine" has made enough fans to jack his betting price through the roof.

Two of Dvalishvili's three title fights came against an overpowered Sean O'Malley, and the lanky frame of Sandhagen (63% takedown D) seems ripe for that issue. Yet, Sandhagen stuffed a quality 8 of 13 advances from Umar Nurmagomedov -- a mutual opponent of these two. He was controlled for 5:11 of the 25 minutes.

However, even factoring in control, Merab (+1.83 SSR) and Cory (+1.72 SSR) have very similar damage differentials. Sandhagen has also faced seven fighters currently ranked to Dvalishvili's four.

As non-stop as Merab's wrestling is, his 35% takedown accuracy is just okay, and he struggles to score control time, which is where the takedown volume (5.84 landed per 15 minutes) comes from. Merab's limitations at distance (42% striking accuracy) are fairly well-documented, and he'll cede two inches of reach.

The top of bantamweight is so well-rounded that numbers like this shouldn't exist. Sandhagen covered a +310 price against Nurmagomedov, who went to a split decision with Dvalishvili. My model has Sandhagen as 43.1% likely to win this fight, which is 68.3% likely forecasted to go the distance. FanDuel's -330 odds on a full fight imply this could be a closer fight than expected where Sandhagen might be able to squeeze out rounds.

Magomed Ankalaev vs. Alex Pereira

Fight Doesn't Go the Distance (-140)
Pereira Wins Inside the Distance (+250)

At 38, it'll be fascinating to see if Alex Pereira can add another improbable chapter to his equally improbable career. He won five title fights after the age of 35, which is usually where fighters don't win any at all. Not even using any anecdotal excuses from "Poatan", he definitely didn't perform to his metrics in that fight.

Perhaps paralyzed by Magomed Anakalev's takedown threat, Poatan attempted just 137 significant strikes to Big Ank's 180. Usually, Pereira attempts 8.06 per minute to Ankalev's 7.04. Upping his volume was really all that was required to get the nod as he landed 55% to Ankalaev's 52%.

However, this is also a guy with a 1.07 KD% to Ankalaev's 1.02 KD%. It's frankly amazing that both fighters -- above the age of 33 -- weren't dropped over the course of 25 minutes. Pereira was definitely wobbled. There's too much power at play when I'd argue there's also a bit of grappling risk; both are 0-1 in their pro careers via submission.

In the first fight, I had Pereira 57.0% likely to win and the fight 53.4% likely to not go the distance. It was a close bout that just went against both of those outcomes.

However, with the added age for both fighters (and the 25 minutes added to the sample), I've now got Pereira 49.0% likely to win a fight forecasted 65.0% likely to end early. In general, the market has overcorrected to the "Anakalev by decision" angle we saw in the first fight.

That's not a huge surprise. I'll fade it with both a play on the under and laddering that play with Pereira being the one to score the early finish. I've actually got Poatan finding it 37.6% of the time compared to 27.4% for Big Ank, who hasn't stopped a top-10 opponent yet.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.