UFC 318 Best Bets and Props: Holloway vs. Poirier 3

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Without further delay, here are a few best bets from UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3, taking place at the Smoothie King Center in New Orleans, Louisiana on Saturday.

UFC 318 Betting Picks

Ryan Spann vs. Lukasz Brzeski

Brzeski to Win (+190)

After Ryan Spann's heavyweight debut, I'm not sure even this fight is the slam dunk UFC supposes it is opposite Lukasz Brzeski.

It is extremely noteworthy that Brzeski is 1-5 in UFC yet sits as the fifth-shortest underdog on this card. He's been a can crushed in spots, but there's context to be had with his record. He was robbed of a second UFC win from a +52 striking differential against Martin Buday, and his UFC opponents have a combined 26-10 record against all others.

Facing that murderer's row, Brzeski's +1.34 striking success rate (SSR) is strong. Spann (-1.01 SSR) doesn't have the same ability to win minutes, relying on power punches (2.10% knockdown rate) and submission attempts (1.5 per 15 minutes) that often leave him gassed after a few minutes.

Though the odds for Spann to finish Brzeski are still in the former's favor, Brzeski exploiting Spann's ugly 43% striking D for a (T)KO himself is on the table in addition to my model's 81.6% likelihood that a decision would go the Polish fighter's way.

I've got Brzeski 42.5% likely to win overall, implying closer to +135 odds.

Jimmy Crute vs. Marcin Prachnio

Crute Wins Inside the Distance (-135)

This matchup was inconceivable in 2021 at the peak of Jimmy Crute's powers. Marcin Prachnio was 2-3 in UFC at that time.

Crute is a good case study on age in UFC, getting rushed into the rankings at just 25 at that stage and getting smoked. He's still 0-3-2 in his last five fights even if both draws could be considered robbed from his pocket. Overall, the Aussie's 42% striking D wasn't good enough to keep top-level guys at bay.

However, he averages 3.86 takedowns and 1.2 submission attempts per 15 minutes as a lethal matchup for Prachnio's 53% takedown defense.

Prachnio just doesn't seem to have the power to exploit Crute's issues outside of a fluke kick. A kick earned him his lone career UFC knockdown, which is why the Polish fighter's knockdown rate (0.17%) is the smallest among active 205ers with a minimum of five starts.

Overall, "The Brute" seems primed for a huge win on the ground. Prachnio has been submitted by every foe who averages north of 0.2 attempts per 15 minutes. Whether it's ground-and-pound or a sub, I've got Crute finding a finish 57.2% of the time.

Marvin Vettori vs. Brendan Allen

Vettori to Win (+156)

UFC must fear this fight is going to be boring. Otherwise, how are top-10 middleweights Marvin Vettori and Brendan Allen on the prelims?

At these odds, "The Italian Dream" is an amazing bet. He's seemingly got all the right tools to beat Brendan Allen. Vettori's +0.17 SSR is better than Allen's (-0.12 SSR), and he's got the wrestling to make him pay for a guard-heavy approach. He averages 1.51 takedowns per 15 minutes with good efficiency (45% land rate) and hasn't been subbed as a pro.

The striking realm should be a massive advantage. Vettori attempts 3.17 more significant strikes per minute, and his expected land rate (50.5%) is better just using these two's historical averages for striking accuracy and defense.

Most of all? Brendan Allen's "ranked" wins have aged to the point where they're no longer in the division, retired, or have tumbled outside the top 15. He's 0-2 versus currently ranked middleweights.

My model still has Allen a decent favorite here (57.3%) on perceived power advantages and submission danger, but I'd anecdotally favor Vettori outright knowing what an outlier he is in terms of durability.

Kevin Holland vs. Daniel Rodriguez

Fight Goes the Distance (+164)
Rodriguez by Points (+800)

We'll finally get this originally scheduled UFC 279 battle after mayhem ensued there.

These two are seemingly at very different points in their careers, though. Kevin Holland holds a welterweight ranking despite a 4-3 record at 170 pounds, and Daniel Rodriguez has largely been crossed off from the top 15 after stoppage losses to Ian Machado Garry and Neil Magny in consecutive fights after that night. This perception might be why Holland is -520 to win here.

But perception isn't reality.

Holland isn't just hovering around .500 in this weight class; he's run extremely fortunate of late for a guy with just a 0.51% KD and 0.6 submission attempts per 15 minutes to do. On a per-minute basis, Rodriguez (+2.00 SSR) is a more efficient striker than "Trailblazer" (+1.13 SSR).

Even at 37, "D-Rod" stopped Santiago Ponzinibbio (12-8 UFC) slightly earlier two months ago than Holland did in 2023.

These two just aren't that different, and Rodriguez's durability plus Holland's unwillingness to wrestle should keep this fight a competitive striking match. I prefer a "point spread" market where possible, but I've got Rodriguez as 25.6% likely to win this fight by decision. That's higher than Kevin (22.0%) in a fight that, modeled at 47.6% likely to go 15 minutes, is undervalued to see its full distance.

Paulo Costa vs. Roman Kopylov

Costa to Win (+184)

I've said it before, and I'll say it again. I live for UFC betting spots like this.

Paulo Costa's meteoric rise to a UFC title shot was always a bit fraudulent, turning in four (T)KOs over unranked or over-the-hill fighters before a split decision with Yoel Romero in which his striking differential was -7. However, Costa's four losses in UFC since have also come to current top-10 middleweights. Where does Roman Kopylov shake out?

Frankly, I'm not sure the Russian striking ace is a ranked contender. He was behind at distance against Cesar Almeida (-19 distance strikes) and Chris Curtis (-18), who has since left the division for welterweight. Kopylov used a poor stoppage to sneak past Curtis and five takedowns to thwart Almeida, but Costa's takedown D (80%) is a reliable strength.

Losing at distance outside the rankings is a bad sign when Kopylov's overall SSR (+0.10) just isn't that far ahead of Costa's (-0.34), which has suffered at a championship level. Costa averages 0.80 more significant strike attempts per minute, and he's been dropped just twice in UFC as Kopylov's power (1.18% KD) has been a key advantage for him.

Efficiency concerns in tow, I've still got Costa 46.9% likely to win this bout.

Max Holloway vs. Dustin Poirier

Fight Doesn't Go the Distance (+106)
Poirier Wins Inside the Distance (+250)
Poirier by Submission (+1200)

I'm fortunate to have a model to make the exclusive call here. It's hard not to be biased in Dustin Poirier's retirement fight.

"The Diamond" has produced several iconic moments, including an interim lightweight title win over Max Holloway in 2019. He's 2-0 over Max including a 2012 win at featherweight, but this is also the first time that Holloway is on the correct side of the median championship age in UFC (30).

There's too much weird here to have the fight so likely to go the distance.

Seven straight Poirier bouts have ended in a finish, showing the influence the 2019 fight has over this line. It's not like Holloway, seeing three straight end by (T)KO, has been seeing the cards recently, either. Max's last fight was his first career loss by knockout after 2,298 significant strikes absorbed. That's a big deal for a chin that's been living on borrowed time.

The reality is that both of these fighters are older, and Holloway's fluctuation between 145 pounds and 155 pounds could significantly impact his durability. Plus, Max's lack of success makes sense on paper. Ceding power and grappling upside to Poirier, he also is on the wrong end of two inches in reach.

Similar to oddsmakers, I've got "Blessed" Holloway a small favorite (50.5%) to show no value on the moneyline. However, I've got this fight 63.4% likely to end early, and Poirier (38.9%) makes up a much greater percentage of that than Holloway (24.5%).

Given Dustin's quotes about wanting to finally secure his signature guillotine choke if he has the position to do so, I find it interesting that I've modeled a Poirier sub at 20.3% likely. At 1.3 submission attempts per 15 minutes, he just tries too often to ignore such lengthy odds.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.