Most Clutch NFL Quarterbacks Entering 2025

Of all the attributes which make up an elite NFL quarterback in the year 2025, the Clutch factor may be the most difficult to quantify.

Without a clear definition, focusing purely on the 4th quarter is a good place to start.

From there, we can further narrow our scope to find the most clutch NFL quarterbacks entering 2025.

Most Clutch NFL Quarterbacks Entering 2025

To do this, I pulled "clutch" quarterback statistics from nflfastR for every quarterback in the 2024 season.

Below, you'll see a table with the bulk of the returning quarterbacks from 2024. Alongside is their Total EPA (expected points added) per play average for three specific 4th-quarter splits.

One-Score EPA: Differential is between -8 and +8 points.
Tied/Trailing EPA: Differential is between -16 and 0 points.
Non-Blowout EPA: Win probability is between 10% and 90%.

*Did not have enough plays to qualify.

Let's run through the most clutch NFL quarterbacks entering 2025 based on last season's EPA per play in one-score games.

Jalen Hurts (PHI)

Jalen Hurts didn't see as many clutch reps as some of the other top quarterbacks in the league last season. That's what happens when your team has a +6.0 average point differential entering the fourth quarter (seventh-highest in the NFL).

But when the Philadelphia Eagles needed Hurts to perform in the clutch, he delivered. Hurts led the league in 4th quarter one-score EPA per play last season. He orchestrated an Eagles offense which, in total, tied for third in EPA per play during the fourth quarter.

Much of that production came on the ground where Hurts scored 5 rushing touchdowns and amassed 18 first downs -- both top five among all rushers.

Through the air, Hurts led the league in 4th quarter completion percentage (73%), rounding out one of the most clutch profiles in the NFL.

And while he didn't record enough plays to qualify for the leaderboard, his 0.76 EPA per play while tied or trailing was far and away the best mark in football.

Tua Tagovailoa (MIA)

Tua Tagovailoa was the only quarterback who rivaled Hurts' 4th quarter efficiency in 2024. He finished right behind Hurts in one-score EPA in the 4th quarter despite contributing exactly 0 rushing yards in the final period.

That just speaks to how efficient Tua was through the air. He finished a hair behind Hurts in 4th quarter completion percentage (72.6%) and led a pair of game-winning drives desite missing six games. We saw firsthand how big of an impact Tagovailoa makes on Miami's late-game offense during his absence. They had a +3.0 4th quarter average point differential in Tua's full games but an -0.5 without him.

Jayden Daniels (WAS)

Perhaps the most impressive part of Jayden Daniels Rookie of the Year campaign was how well he played in the biggest moments. In his first professional season, Daniels recorded the third-highest EPA per play in the 4th quarter of one-score games, and the second-highest in the 4th quarter while tied or trailing.

Daniels was incredibly efficient (fourth in 4th quarter completion percentage) but still managed to push the ball downfield (sixth in yards per attempt). An eye-popping 50.4% of Daniels' 4th quarter pass attempts resulted in a first down or touchdown -- the third-highest rate football.

He was still a threat with his legs, ranking in the top 10 for 4th quarter rushing yards among quarterbacks.

Patrick Mahomes (KC)

It wouldn't be a list of the NFL's most clutch quarterbacks without Patrick Mahomes. The two-time Super bowl MVP finished top-five in EPA per play in the 4th quarter of one-score games and when tied or trailing.

Mahomes' impact on the game is hard to quantify. He was "only" 11th in 4th quarter completion percentage (67.2%) with a mild 6.8 yards per attempt, but there's no denying how well he orchestrates this Kansas City Chiefs offense. Mahomes just led the league in 4th quarter comebacks and game-winning drives, after all.

The Chiefs' offense just took off in the 4th quarter of games last season. In the first three quarters, KC ranked 13th in EPA per play and passing EPA. In the 4th quarter, Mahomes and the Chiefs jumped to sixth in both metrics.

Baker Mayfield (TB)

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers were not afraid to let Baker Mayfield cook in the 4th quarter last season. That proved to be good strategy as Mayfield tied for fourth in one-score EPA per play during the 4th quarter.

Baker was uber-efficient through the air, ranking third in completion percentage (72.5%) and pacing the position in NFL Passer Rating (117.8) during the 4th quarter. He managed to stay efficient despite heavy volume, finishing with the eighth-most pass attempts and third-most passing yards in the 4th quarter last season.

But he wasn't afraid to use his legs when things got tight. Baker ranked fourth among quarterbacks in rushing first downs and tied for fifth among all rushers in rushes of 10+ yards during the 4th quarter.

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