UFC 304 DFS Picks: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2

If you crave violence, artistry, and competition in its purest form, the Ultimate Fighting Championship might be for you.

Colloquially known as "UFC," the world's largest mixed martial arts promotion holds around a dozen MMA fights a vast majority of weekends throughout the year. The promotion has fathered some of the largest combat-sport stars of the 21st century, including Conor McGregor, Khabib Nurmagomedov, and Jon Jones.

There are plenty of ways to get in on the action every Saturday. In this piece, we'll look at the fights through the lens of playing UFC DFS contests on FanDuel Fantasy. Fighters score fantasy points for significant strikes, takedowns, knockdowns, and submission attempts, but a quick finish provides the best way to win!

Without further delay, let's take a look at the main slate for UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2, taking place at the Co-Op Live in Manchester, England on Saturday.

UFC 304 DFS Picks

Studs to Target

We've got eight favorites -- all men or women from the U.K. -- of at least -225, according to FanDuel's UFC odds. Some will put up monstrous scores in DFS.

At the top of that list has to be Tom Aspinall ($23), who hasn't seen a seventh minute elapse in UFC through eight fights. If that trend holds for the heavyweight, you're locking in 75 FanDuel points before even getting to his stellar rate of FanDuel points per minute excluding bonuses (6.58 FDPPM). He's the top MVP candidate by a mile.

I'd put Molly McCann ($19) second in a total squash match against Bruna Brasil. Brasil's 53% takedown D is a disaster with McCann just having notched a submission in her strawweight debut, but "Meatball" is also a high-volume striker at 5.79 significant strikes landed per minute (SSLPM). All three of her fights in England since the COVID break ended early, and Brasil is a prime candidate to get overwhelmed.

Mick Parkin ($19) would get my bronze medal. At worst, he's shown enough wrestling at 1.60 takedowns per 15 minutes (TDp15) to pile up those points against Lukasz Brzeski's awful 36% takedown D. Brzeski was also starched in the first round two fights ago and has shown questionable cardio, so there are a lot of ways for Aspinall's training partner to score in DFS.

My model is also in on Arnold Allen ($18), who I've got winning 61.8% of the time and finding a finish 21.2% of the time. It's less sure on Nathaniel Wood ($22) scoring big-time fantasy points when projecting a decision win for him 52.3% of the time.

Many will also consider Sam Patterson ($21), who is -270 to win inside the distance, but I could easily see Patterson's 49% striking defense getting flattened quickly by Kiefer Crosbie in the lowest level fight on the card. Tread carefully.

Value Plays to Target

The near-identical salaries in the mid-range belong to Paddy Pimblett ($15) and King Green. I'll take "Paddy the Baddy" when modeling his inside-the-distance chances (38.6%) significant higher than Green's (16.9%) when the two score similarly in terms of FDPPM.

We'll find welterweight title challenger Belal Muhammad ($15) down here thanks to his standing as a +210 underdog, but he'll be around to pile up fantasy points. My model has the main event 81.1% likely to see all 25 minutes. Showcasing the volume that could also help him win the title via decision, Muhammad's 3.59 FDPPM are significantly higher than the low-activity champion Edwards' (2.28).

Gregory Rodrigues ($14) has finished each of his last five wins with four knockdowns in that time. He's got a pronounced grappling edge on Christian Leroy Duncan's 50% takedown defense, and I don't trust CLD's striking defense (50%), either. It seems like a sensible spot to save salary.

Manel Kape ($13) became unavoidable for me as this line (and inherently his salary) moved throughout the week. Kape has big-time power (1.42% knockdown rate) and has never been finished in a fight -- plus this one is -174 to see all 15 minutes. I prefer a punt in his matchup with Muhammad Mokaev.

As mentioned in my UFC 304 betting picks column, Marcin Prachnio ($13) was the first inefficient spot I targeted this week. My model has him at -150 to win, and having posted 5.61 SSLPM, he can pile up points on the way even if his fight is -140 to go the distance.

Oban Elliott ($13), Jake Hadley ($12), and Alice Ardelean ($12) are other underdogs I'd lean toward picking to win at their respective odds. All three's fights are favored to go the distance, but they can work in a pinch.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.