4 NFL Touchdown Picks for Week 3

Taking anytime touchdown props via the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook is a fun way to wager on the NFL.

Which touchdown picks make sense for this week? Let's dig in.

All NFL odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published.

Best NFL TD Bets: Week 3

Stefon Diggs Anytime Touchdown (+160)

The Houston Texans are undoubtedly loaded at receiver, so it is going to be tough to determine which Texans WRs are going to score each week. However, there is reason to believe Stefon Diggs is a solid choice to score at his current odds.

We took Diggs in Week 1 ahead of his debut with the Texans, and he responded by scoring twice against the Indianapolis Colts. Even though Diggs is second in Houston's aerial attack with an 18.5% target share, he has 60% of the team's red-zone targets and 50% of the team's end-zone targets to begin the year, via NextGenStats.

While the Minnesota Vikings gave the San Francisco 49ers fits in Week 2 by limiting them to 17 points, the Texans have a healthy 24.0-point implied total entering Sunday's contest. The Vikings possess the sixth-highest blitz rate (33.3%) in the league so far under defensive coordinator Brian Flores, so C.J. Stroud could look to get the ball out quickly to Diggs -- who has the lowest average depth of target (5.3 yards) among the Texans' WRs.

Our fantasy football projections are giving Diggs a slightly lower chance (0.41) to score a receiving touchdown than Nico Collins (0.42) in Week 3 as Collins is being given +135 odds to score a touchdown. For those who also love following revenge narratives, Diggs is facing one of his former teams after spending the first five years of his career in Minnesota.

Chris Olave Anytime Touchdown (+150)

Not many people expected the New Orleans Saints to boast the best offense in the NFL through the first two weeks. Offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak has the Saints marching in unison in his first year calling the plays as New Orleans has tallied a combined 91 points entering Week 3.

While Derek Carr has been limited to 39 pass attempts due to the Saints blowing out both of their opponents, Rashid Shaheed and Alvin Kamara have been the biggest beneficiaries in the touchdown department thus far. That being said, it's only a matter of time before Chris Olave gets to celebrate his first touchdown of the campaign.

Olave is currently tied for the second-highest target share (20.5%) on the Saints while he's second on the team in air yards share (24.7%). Additionally, Olave is one of five players on New Orleans' roster to have a red-zone target, and he was just one-yard short of falling into the end zone in Week 2.

The matchup is a favorable one for the Saints' passing game as the Philadelphia Eagles have given up the seventh-most yards per route run (1.98) and 5 total TDs to receivers. On top of that, Philly's defense is allowing the 11th-most deep yards per target (11.9), so there's a chance for Olave to hit a splash play for a score in Week 3.

Kyler Murray Anytime Touchdown (+155)

It was exciting to see a fully healthy Kyler Murray in Week 2, with Kyler completing 17 of his 21 attempts for 266 yards and 3 TDs through the air. Along with his nearly perfect passing numbers, Murray also added 59 rushing yards on 5 rushing attempts, giving him 57-plus rushing yards for the second straight week.

In an offense that looks vastly improved so far, it's a positive sign to see the dual-threat quarterback using his legs to create plays for the Arizona Cardinals again. Across eight starts in 2023 -- when he returned from a torn ACL that occurred in 2022 -- Murray scored three rushing TDs, and he's got a decent chance to score his first in 2024 on Sunday versus the Detroit Lions.

With a new-look secondary, the Lions have run man-coverage at the second-highest rate (50.6%) in the NFL to begin the season. Playing man-coverage can lead to defenders turning their backs to the quarterback, which could give Murray more rushing opportunities in a game where the Cardinals boast a formidable 24.25-point implied total at home.

While the Lions could have someone who holds the responsibility of spying on Murray, Kyler having Marvin Harrison Jr. and Trey McBride at his disposal makes it tougher for Detroit to force Murray to make tight-window throws in the red area -- which he's capable of doing. All it takes for Murray to score a rushing touchdown is the Lions getting caught sleeping on a play or for Murray to pull the ball down when faking a handoff to someone like James Conner.

Brandon Aiyuk Anytime Touchdown (+120)

Jordan Mason has nearly reached Christian McCaffrey-level odds to score a touchdown as he is holding the shortest touchdown odds to score (-175) by a wide margin in Sunday's showdown with the Los Angeles Rams. There isn't much value in taking Mason to find the end zone for the third straight week, so I have my sights on Brandon Aiyuk to score for the first time this season.

Ahead of Sunday's kickoff, McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel have been ruled out for the San Francisco 49ers. During the two-game stretch where Samuel was sidelined in 2023 (Weeks 7 and 8), Aiyuk commanded a 25.4% target share, 38.6% air yards share, and 2.81 yards per route run.

Through the first two weeks of 2024, Aiyuk has just a 15.4% target share, 21.2% air yards share, and 1.11 yards per route run. At the same time, he's earned three of the five end-zone targets for the 49ers this year, although he was unable to turn any of those looks into a touchdown.

The good news for Aiyuk is that the Rams are permitting the most yards per route run (2.32) to WRs, and a wideout has logged 120-plus yards and a score in back-to-back weeks when facing LA. There's also a chance George Kittle is unable to suit up for San Fran on Sunday as he was absent from practice on Thursday. Kittle sitting would increase the chances of Aiyuk crossing the goal line.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.