Thanksgiving is when the playoff push hits in the NFL, and there are still close races across the league as we enter the week before. Last week's marquee matchups didn't disappoint, and frankly, there just aren't that many this week. The "Harbaugh Bowl" will take place on Monday, leaving Sunday's best matchup a battered San Francisco 49ers group headed to Lambeau to battle the Green Bay Packers.

A lot of top contenders are just trying to avoid upsets that could be costly. Will favorites keep rolling, or will 'dogs -- just as the actual "Dawg Pound" on Thursday did -- starting barking?

Additionally, don't forget to check out FanDuel Research's NFL projections to see what numberFire's model expects from each player across key statistical categories.

Which value remains on the board in FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL betting odds? Let's check it out.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

Today's Best NFL Betting Picks

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears

Under 39.5 Points (-115)

These two struggling offenses probably won't turn it around amidst chilly and windy weather at Soldier Field today.

These are two of numberFire's top-eight defenses, according to its schedule-adjusted metrics. That's one good note for an under, and the modest-to-subdued adjusted pace between these two squads is another. Digging deeper, they should be able to bother each other's scoring attacks much further.

According to Pro Football Focus, the Minnesota Vikings have the NFL's highest pressure rate as a defense (39%). That's not ideal news for Caleb Williams and the Chicago Bears, who have allowed 41 sacks (second-most in the NFL) thus far. When allowing at least four sacks in a game, Chicago has only scored 10.5 points per contest this season.

Minnesota isn't free of concerns, either. Sam Darnold has turned it over seven times in the last three games, and the Bears' D is opportunistic. They're seventh in the NFL with 17 forced turnovers. Even if Chicago's pass pro is struggling again, they're a short field away from getting back in the game.

Oddsmakers have made this the lowest total of Sunday despite star-studded personnel on both sides for a reason.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New York Giants

Buccaneers Over 23.5 Points (-110)
Mike Evans Over 55.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

The funkiest spread on the board might be this one. Rather than step in the trap, it's pretty obvious how the Tampa Bay Buccaneers would fail to cover this spread. Even with Tommy DeVito under the opposing center and losing certainly the New York Giants' intention, Tampa's defense is terrible.

They're 29th in schedule-adjusted defense, per numberFire, which could prompt the G-Men's talented skill personnel to put up a pair of tuddies surrounded by field goals. The Bucs have surrendered at least 23 points in six straight games.

Nonetheless, a rejuvenated Tampa offense can still do some damage to New York's 17th-ranked defense. They're 31st against the rush when the Buccaneers are nF's 8th-best rushing squad. It's hard to see the Giants keeping Tampa well below its scoring average (27.9 PPG).

numberFire expects 25.7 points from the Bucs in this one.

One of the reasons why is the return of Mike Evans.

Baker Mayfield's top target from a year ago, Evans could return to a target share north of 30.0% in his first action this season without Chris Godwin, who is done for the year with an ankle injury. The veteran will need to put up lofty numbers to produce an 11th straight 1,000-yard season but should get plenty of looks to do so.

Evans' potential production is a FanDuel Research "squad ride" that I'm joining. Annie Nader looked at Evans' alternate lines in Week 12's best NFL prop bets, Aidan Cotter loves Evans' matchup opposite Deonte Banks, and the veteran is one of our Week 12 NFL projections' favorite plays in DFS.

Considering the wideout said he could have returned in Week 10, I feel great about deploying him in a matchup that should be favorable for the Buccaneers' offense.

Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks

Seahawks Moneyline (-108)
Geno Smith Over 252.5 Passing Yards (-110)

The Arizona Cardinals are arguably the most improved team of the season. I'm jumping off the train in this tough road, divisional contest.

Arizona entered their bye with four straight wins, including dismantlings of the reeling Chicago Bears and New York Jets in their two most recent contests. Those two offenses were built to mask Arizona's defensive issues, but they're still present. The Redbirds are 26th in nF's schedule-adjusted defense rankings.

Traveling to the Seattle Seahawks in wet, windy weather, I'll take the home side. Seattle is 17th in defense, and I'm a huge buyer on their 21st-ranked offense that was forced to navigate early-season injuries to Kenneth Walker III and D.K. Metcalf. Fully healthy, this team just knocked off the San Francisco 49ers on the road after just missing out in overtime against the Los Angeles Rams.

Kyler Murray's career passer rating is 98.5 in October, slipping to 95.8 in November and 85.9 in December. This is typically the time you want to hop off the undersized quarterback, and a peaking Mike Macdonald defense is no easy test for him.

Even with a little moisture, I've got to take Geno Smith to ball out in a Seahawks dub. Smith's season is nearing a breakout in a matchup like this.

Overall, this Seattle offense is built for big-time passing numbers. They're fourth in adjusted pace and third in adjusted pass rate, which is how Smith is on pace to deliver a career-best 278.1 passing yards per game. He's just missed that mark -- or even 250 yards -- in three of his last four games amidst tougher matchups recently.

Yet, the vet torched the Rams for over 300 yards two weeks ago, and he's averaged 295.3 passing yards in just four matchups this season with below-average defenses in nF's metrics. Arizona, in 26th, absolutely qualifies.

Smith is projected for 264.2 passing yards in this matchup by FanDuel Research, and this line has dropped three yards since I gave it out in our Week 12 NFL expert picks.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.