Thunder vs. Heat Prediction, Odds, Picks, Best Bets for Jan. 11

Thunder vs. Heat Game Info

• Date: Sunday, January 11, 2026
• Time: 7 p.m. ET
• Venue: Paycom Center -- Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
• Coverage: FDSSUN and FDSOK

The Oklahoma City Thunder (32-7) are heavy, 14.5-point favorites against the Miami Heat (20-18) on Sunday, January 11, 2026 at 7 p.m. ET. The matchup airs on FDSSUN and FDSOK. The point total is 233.5 in the matchup.

Thunder vs. Heat Odds & Spread

All NBA betting lines, odds and prop bets are from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Thunder vs. Heat Prediction & Pick

All NBA win probability predictions and picks are according to numberFire.
Prediction: Thunder win (82.6%)

Thunder vs. Heat Betting Trends

• The Thunder have covered the spread 19 times this season (19-20-0).
• The Heat are 21-16-1 against the spread this year.
• This season, 20 of the Thunder's games have gone over the point total out of 38 chances.
• Heat games this year have eclipsed the over/under 47.4% of the time (18 out of 38 games with a set point total).
• At home, Oklahoma City has a better record against the spread (11-10-0) compared to its ATS record on the road (8-10-0).
• The Thunder have eclipsed the over/under more often when playing at home, hitting the over in 11 of 21 home matchups (52.4%). In road games, they have hit the over in nine of 18 games (50%).
• This season, Miami is 11-8-0 at home against the spread (.579 winning percentage). On the road, it is 10-8-1 ATS (.526).
• Heat games have finished above the over/under 47.4% of the time both at home (nine of 19) and away (nine of 19) this season.

Thunder Leaders

• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander averages 31.9 points, 4.5 boards and 6.4 assists.
• Chet Holmgren averages 18.2 points, 8.3 rebounds and 1.6 assists, shooting 57.5% from the field and 37.7% from beyond the arc, with 1.4 made 3-pointers per contest.
• Ajay Mitchell's numbers on the season are 14.2 points, 3.4 boards and 3.7 assists per game, shooting 47.6% from the field and 35.3% from beyond the arc, with an average of 1.1 made 3-pointers.
• Jalen Williams is averaging 17.6 points, 5.8 assists and 5.1 rebounds.
• Cason Wallace's numbers on the season are 7.5 points, 3.1 boards and 2.1 assists per contest, shooting 41.3% from the floor and 35.2% from beyond the arc, with an average of 1.4 made 3-pointers.

Heat Leaders

• Per game, Norman Powell provides the Heat 23.8 points, 3.7 boards and 2.7 assists. He also averages 1.3 steals and 0.2 blocks.
• Kel'el Ware's numbers on the season are 12 points, 10.4 rebounds and 0.6 assists per game. He is making 54.7% of his shots from the floor and 43% from 3-point range, with an average of 1.2 triples.
• The Heat are getting 16.2 points, 5.3 boards and 4.6 assists per game from Jaime Jaquez Jr.
• The Heat receive 16.8 points per game from Bam Adebayo, plus 9.6 rebounds and 2.6 assists.
• The Heat get 15.8 points per game from Andrew Wiggins, plus 4.8 boards and 2.8 assists.

For more NBA betting insights, check out FanDuel Research's NBA home page.

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