North Carolina vs San Diego State Basketball Prediction, Odds, Picks, Best Bets for NCAA Tournament First Four

The North Carolina Tar Heels (22-13) and the San Diego State Aztecs (21-9) square off with a place in the Round of 64 of the NCAA Tournament on the line on Tuesday at UD Arena, starting at 9:10 p.m. ET.

Before you place your bet on this matchup at FanDuel Sportsbook, here are the NCAA basketball odds and spreads you need to know.

North Carolina vs. San Diego State Game Info and Odds

• Game day: Tuesday, March 18, 2025
• Game time: 9:10 p.m. ET
• TV channel: truTV
• Location: Dayton, Ohio
• Arena: UD Arena

North Carolina vs. San Diego State Picks and Prediction

All college basketball win probability predictions and picks are according to numberFire.
Prediction: North Carolina win (55.5%)

See these betting insights and trends before you bet on Tuesday's North Carolina-San Diego State spread (North Carolina -5.5) or total (142.5 points).

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North Carolina vs. San Diego State: ATS Betting Stats and Trends

• North Carolina has put together a 15-20-0 ATS record so far this year.
• San Diego State has covered 12 times in 29 games with a spread this year.
• North Carolina covers the spread when it is a 5.5-point favorite or more 55% of the time. That's more often than San Diego State covers as an underdog of 5.5 or more (33.3%).
• The Tar Heels have covered the spread in a higher percentage of their home games than away games. They have covered seven times in 15 opportunities at home, and they've covered four times in 12 opportunities on the road.
• The Aztecs have performed better against the spread at home (6-8-0) than on the road (3-7-0) this season.

North Carolina vs. San Diego State: Moneyline Betting Stats

• North Carolina has been chosen as the moneyline favorite in 25 games this year and has walked away with the win 21 times (84%) in those games.
• This year, the Tar Heels have won 18 of 20 games when listed as at least -215 or better on the moneyline.
• San Diego State has won three of the nine games it was the moneyline underdog this season (33.3%).
• When they have played as a moneyline underdog with odds of +176 or longer, the Aztecs have gone 1-2 (33.3%).
• Sportsbooks have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that North Carolina has a 68.3% chance of pulling out a win.

North Carolina vs. San Diego State Head-to-Head Comparison

• North Carolina averages 80.8 points per game (32nd in college basketball) while giving up 75 per outing (271st in college basketball). It has a +204 scoring differential overall and outscores opponents by 5.8 points per game.
• RJ Davis' team-leading 17 points per game ranks 112th in the country.
• San Diego State has a +217 scoring differential, topping opponents by 7.3 points per game. It is putting up 70.9 points per game, 258th in college basketball, and is giving up 63.6 per outing to rank 14th in college basketball.
• San Diego State's leading scorer, Nicholas Boyd, is 462nd in college basketball, averaging 13.4 points per game.
• The Tar Heels win the rebound battle by 2.1 boards on average. They collect 33.3 rebounds per game, which ranks 100th in college basketball, while their opponents pull down 31.2 per contest.
• Ven-Allen Lubin's 5.6 rebounds per game lead the Tar Heels and rank 418th in college basketball play.
• The Aztecs record 31.8 rebounds per game (184th in college basketball), compared to the 31.4 of their opponents.
• Magoon Gwath is 542nd in college basketball with 5.2 rebounds per game, leading the Aztecs.
• North Carolina averages 102 points per 100 possessions on offense (45th in college basketball), and gives up 94.6 points per 100 possessions (214th in college basketball).
• The Aztecs rank 215th in college basketball averaging 94.3 points per 100 possessions on offense, and defensively are ninth, allowing 84.6 points per 100 possessions.

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