NFL Week 16 Spread and Total Predictions for Every Game

In the NFL, you're never lacking in prediction models to try to give you an idea of what to expect in a given week, whether those models are for betting or other purposes.

Below, we're going to run through what my spread and total models say about Week 16's NFL games.

As a disclaimer, this is my own, personal betting model. I'll lay out which bets I'm willing to make based on it compared to FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL betting odds, but as always, you'll have to decide for yourself whether there's enough value for you to the plunge, as well.

The spread model is largely based on numberFire's Net Expected Points (NEP) model, which is their version of EPA. The totals model factors in things such as pace and wind speed, as well. Numbers are manually edited to reflect the players who are expected to play in a given game.

Without further ado, here's what I've got for this upcoming slate of games.

NFL Week 16 Predictions

Rams at Seahawks Prediction

Spread Prediction: Rams -0.3

Total Prediction: 41.3

Betting Odds

Thoughts: Not having Davante Adams in this game does up my willingness to back the under despite how fun both offenses are. The wind speeds being at 11 mph also helps matters.

Eagles at Commanders Prediction

Spread Prediction: Eagles -4.5

Total Prediction: 46.7

Betting Odds

Packers at Bears Prediction

Spread Prediction: Packers -2.5

Total Prediction: 46.6

Betting Odds

Thoughts: It's a big downgrade for the Green Bay Packers to not have Micah Parsons, but they've been the team with the more sustainable underlying metrics this year. I agree with the model that there's some value in backing them here.

Chargers at Cowboys Prediction

Spread Prediction: Cowboys -1.7

Total Prediction: 50.2

Betting Odds

Vikings at Giants Prediction

Spread Prediction: Giants -1.3

Total Prediction: 43.2

Betting Odds

Thoughts: Back-to-back fun games for J.J. McCarthy, but the overall body of work for Jaxson Dart has been better. That puts me on the New York Giants even with the big gap between these two defenses.

Bills at Browns Prediction

Spread Prediction: Bills -10.4

Total Prediction: 41.8

Betting Odds

Jets at Saints Prediction

Spread Prediction: Saints -6.1

Total Prediction: 41.9

Betting Odds

Buccaneers at Panthers Prediction

Spread Prediction: Buccaneers -1.1

Total Prediction: 43.9

Betting Odds

Thoughts: The Carolina Panthers are a volatile team, so backing them as a favorite would be a tough sell. But here, as home underdogs against a Tampa Bay Buccaneers team that has also been inconsistent, I don't hate it. I'd prefer the moneyline over the spread due to the volatility.

Bengals at Dolphins Prediction

Spread Prediction: Dolphins -2.3

Total Prediction: 48.4

Betting Odds

Thoughts: I feel better about the under than backing the Miami Dolphins with how underwhelming both offenses have felt.

Chiefs at Titans Prediction

Spread Prediction: Chiefs -3.7

Total Prediction: 38.3

Betting Odds

Jaguars at Broncos Prediction

Spread Prediction: Broncos -2.1

Total Prediction: 41.4

Betting Odds

Thoughts: I've given the Jacksonville Jaguars' offense a pretty big boost due to their recent play, but I'm still showing tons of value in the under. I'm willing to take that given the strength of both defenses.

Falcons at Cardinals Prediction

Spread Prediction: Cardinals -1.2

Total Prediction: 45.3

Betting Odds

Thoughts: Showing value in both the Arizona Cardinals and the under. They've been out of the playoff hunt for a while, and the offense has still played hard, so I do think the Cardinals' moneyline is worth a sniff as things stand.

Steelers at Lions Prediction

Spread Prediction: Lions -6.4

Total Prediction: 50.9

Betting Odds

Raiders at Texans Prediction

Spread Prediction: Texans -13.0

Total Prediction: 41.4

Betting Odds

Thoughts: The Houston Texans' team total will likely be the smarter play here than the full game over, given how miserable this Las Vegas Raiders offense has looked lately.

Patriots at Ravens Prediction

Spread Prediction: Patriots -1.0

Total Prediction: 46.3

Betting Odds

Thoughts: I was on the New England Patriots last week, and it didn't go great, but I haven't seen enough from the Baltimore Ravens to think they should be favored against a team that has broadly looked as good as New England.

49ers at Colts Prediction

Spread Prediction: 49ers -3.7

Total Prediction: 47.3

Betting Odds

YourWay puts the power of the sportsbook in your hands. Now you can adjust lines, customize player props, and get instant odds when you create bets you can't find anywhere else! Learn about today’s other offers at FanDuel Sportsbook Promos.

Which NFL bets stand out to you? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's latest NFL betting odds to see the full menu of options.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.