NFL Expert Best Bets, Predictions, and Player Props for Thanksgiving
In honor of Thanksgiving, it's time for a smorgasbord.
Our typical weekly column where FanDuel Research's NFL writers give their favorite picks of the week revolves around a spread, total, and player prop bet they like in FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL betting odds. And we'll still do that piece later in the week.
But for Thanksgiving, we're rocking with the best of the best.
Below, you can see the favorite bet -- within any market -- for each of our NFL writers across Thanksgiving's trio of games. If we get just one bet, this is where we'd turn.
Let's dig in and see where everyone is seeing value.
NFL Expert Picks for Thanksgiving Games
Kenyatta Storin, Senior Editor
De'Von Achane Over 55.5 Rushing Yards (-113)
De'Von Achane - Rushing Yds
Since the Miami Dolphins' bye, De'Von Achane has averaged 63.2 rushing yards per game and has gone over this line in four of the last six weeks. The Green Bay Packers' defense is tougher against the pass, ranking eighth in schedule-adjusted pass defense while being closer to average versus the run. Our NFL projections peg Achane for 65.9 rushing yards.
Austin Swaim, Senior Editor
Dolphins-Packers Under 47.5 (-120)
Total Match Points
Two of numberFire's top 10 schedule-adjusted defenses meet on a frigid night at Lambeau, and this game's adjusted pace and pass rates over expectation are also poor. If nothing else, this total seems too high when the Dolphins have scored 20.2 PPG in their last six contests (including playoffs) with an ambient temperature below 35 degrees at kickoff.
Austan Kas, Senior Editor
Wan'Dale Robinson Over 3.5 Receptions (-120)
Wan'Dale Robinson - Total Receptions
Wan'Dale Robinson has been peppered with short-area targets this season, and that was no different in the first game without Daniel Jones as Robinson caught 5 of 5 targets for 47 yards. He's made at least four grabs in eight of his past nine games, and we project him to record 4.2 catches on Thursday.
Skyler Carlin, Writer
DJ Moore Over 4.5 Receptions (-122)
D.J. Moore - Total Receptions
In the first two weeks with Thomas Brown calling plays for the Chicago Bears, they've made a concerted effort to get D.J. Moore the ball as he's hauled in seven passes in both contests. With the Bears being double-digit underdogs versus the Detroit Lions, they should be airing it out often, and the Lions are 32nd in target rate allowed (23.6%) and receptions allowed (168) to WRs, per NextGenStats.
Riley Thomas, Writer
Rico Dowdle Over 68.5 Rushing Yards (-113)
Rico Dowdle - Rushing Yds
Backing the Cowboys’ run game has been a fool’s errand for most of the season, but Rico Dowdle finally dominated touches in Week 12, logging 19 rushing attempts and a 61% snap share. After facing the 15th-worst schedule-adjusted rush defense a week ago, Dowdle gets to face the 4th-worst unit on Thanksgiving. He’s also expected to get a decent workload, seen in his 15.5-rushing attempt prop. Our NFL DFS projections have Dowdle reaching 74.3 rushing yards; give me the over for Dallas’ lead tailback.
Annie Nader, Writer
Jameson Williams 60-Plus Receiving Yards (+144)
Jameson Williams is hanging on to a massive 34.6% air yards share and is one of the top big-play candidates in the league, making him an ideal target in the alt market. The Bears aren’t the easiest of matchups, but they are allowing 14.8 yards per catch (third-most in the NFL) to WRs and could keep this game somewhat competitive based on their last two outings opposite NFC North foes.
Aidan Cotter, Writer
Caleb Williams Over 227.5 Passing Yards (-113)
Caleb Williams - Passing Yds
Caleb Williams has thrown for 231 and 340 yards in two games since Chicago changed offensive coordinators, doing so outdoors against a pair of top-10 pass defenses. Thursday pits him against the No. 1 pass defense in football by numberFire's schedule-adjusted metrics, but Detroit's still given up plenty of volume through the air, and weather won't be a factor indoors at Ford Field. The Lions have allowed the eighth-most passing yards per game (227.2), in part because opposing offenses have the third-highest pass rate (63.7%) against them.
Jim Sannes, Managing Editor
Josh Jacobs 100-Plus Rushing Plus Receiving Yards (+115)
Josh Jacobs has hit the century mark in yards from scrimmage in five of his nine games alongside Jordan Love, including each of the past four. He was at 90 yards in three of the others, making his baseline prop of 89.5 here seem light. I just lean toward the alt market with the potential for elevated winds to give Jacobs' volume another boost in the right direction.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.