3 Best NBA Player Prop Bets for Wednesday 11/27/24
The beauty of the NBA is you will never be short on prop-betting options for a given slate.
From points to steals and three-pointers, FanDuel Sportsbook's NBA odds are overflowing with possibilities. We're here to help you sift through it all.
Using FanDuel Research's daily NBA projections as a guide, here are some NBA player prop bets that look appealing on FanDuel.
Please note: lines and projections are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All NBA odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Today's Best NBA Player Prop Picks
Toronto Raptors at New Orleans Pelicans
RJ Barrett Under 35.5 Pts + Reb + Ast (-120)
Last week, RJ Barrett hit a three-game stretch where he averaged 48.0 combined points, rebounds, and assists (PRA). The caveat? Scottie Barnes was out for two of those contests and limited in one and Barrett shot 53.2% from the floor and was afforded 33 total free throw attempts.
I think the market is still catching up to Barrett's streak of overperformance, and I like the under on his PRA prop tonight.
Barrett's usage takes a hit when Barnes is around. He's netting 38.6 PRA per 36 minutes with a 31.3% usage rate when Barnes is off the floor but averages just 29.5 PRA per 36 with a 25.9% usage rate when Barnes is on the court. In three full games where Barnes was a full go, Barrett mustered just 22, 28, and 28 PRA.
Tonight's matchup doesn't bode particularly well for Barrett, either. The Toronto Raptors will take on the New Orleans Pelicans, who play at the fifth-slowest pace in the league. New Orleans does have the third-worst defensive rating and a 2.5-point spread mitigates the risk for a blowout, but a 222.5 over/under is nonetheless uninspiring. To add, the Pels let up the second-fewest free throw attempts while Barrett is averaging the 15th-most charity stripe tries in the league.
Barnes' PRA prop is also set at 35.5. To me, the identical line feels off considering Scottie is netting 42.0 PRA and RJ is accumulating just 26.0 PRA in their full games together.
New York Knicks at Dallas Mavericks
Jalen Brunson Over 24.5 Points (-111)
Jalen Brunson's points prop is set at 24.5 in a nationally televised revenge game. Deal.
Brunson's playmaking skills have been on display, as he's averaging 11.5 assists across his last four and dished out 17 dimes his last time out. But that hasn't stopped Jalen from netting 27.0 points per game in that span, too. His shot volume has taken a tad of hit with Karl-Anthony Towns in the fold, but that's baked into this line and he's in for an ideal scoring matchup against the Dallas Mavericks tonight.
Dallas runs at the 10th-fastest pace in the league. This is a huge pace up spot for the Knicks, who rank just 27th in tempo. Brunson is averaging 25.6 points in eight games against the top 12 fastest teams in the league.
The Mavs surrender the sixth-most free-throw attempts per game. Few players are more skilled at getting to the free-throw line than Brunson. This season, he's scored at least 26 points in five out of six games against the top 10 teams in FTA allowed.
A close spread (4.0) and high total (233.0) sets this game up as a barnburner. The revenge narrative isn't totally lost on me, either, as Brunson scored 30 points and took a whopping 22 shot attempts in his only other game as a visitor in Dallas. Our NBA projections expect Brunson to score 27.9 points in this one.
Oklahoma City Thunder at Golden State Warriors
Stephen Curry Over 23.5 Points (-104)
You will never catch me fading Stephen Curry when he is at home in a nationally televised high-pace game. He is seemingly inevitable in these contests.
Last year, Steph averaged 29.8 points against the 10 fastest teams in the NBA. He scored at least 25 points in 82.6% of these games (19 out of 23 contests). For context, he averaged just 24.9 points outside of this split.
This season, he's netting an even 25 points through five games against the 10 quickest teams, but two of those competitions were total blowouts, which kept Steph out of the game.
Tonight, the Golden State Warriors and Oklahoma City Thunder will compete for a game that's showing a 2.5-point spread and 229.5 over/under. Golden State (5th) and OKC (8th) run at two of the fastest paces in the league, so I'm expecting the chef to cook.
Steph is netting 2.1 more points per game at home than on the road. We saw the same thing last season when he averaged 1.6 additional points at home. He scorched the Thunder for 36 points on the road earlier this month. Now, he'll face them at home and is well-rested after playing just one game since Sunday. I'm quite bullish on him in this spot, so I'll add in Stephen Curry 25+ Points (+110) and 30+ Points (+240).
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.