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NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Betting: The Case for Christian Gonzalez in 2023

Gabriel Santiago
Gabriel Santiago@gps_onthemic

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Selected by the New England Patriots with the 17th overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, Christian Gonzalez appears to be to the sort of talent who will immediately make an impact in the league.

His measurables stand out for a cornerback as he's listed at 6-foot-2, 201 pounds, Gonzalez is physically built to compete with the NFL's top wide receivers. His athleticism is up to par for the position, as well.

Gonzalez joins a defense in New England that was pretty good last year, permitting the fifth-fewest yards per play (5.0). However, their secondary has room for improvement as the Pats allowed the sixth-most passing touchdowns (28) in 2022.

Adding a long defensive back should help New England, but what are Gonzalez's chances of being named Defensive Rookie of the Year?

Last season's DROY winner -- Sauce Gardner of the New York Jets -- is a similar style of cornerback to Gonzalez. Additionally, corners have won this award in three of the past eight seasons; Marshon Lattimore and Marcus Peters are the other two corners to bring home the honors over that span.

I believe Gonzalez can play at that level in New England this fall.

The NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year odds at FanDuel Sportsbook have Gonzalez listed at +1100 to win the award, giving him the fifth-best odds in the market and the second-best odds among cornerbacks, trailing Devon Witherspoon at +1000. Linebacker/defensive end Will Anderson (+400) of the Houston Texans is the outright favorite to win the award.

Let's break down Gonzalez's chances.

How to Build a DROY Season

As mentioned, we have seen three DROY campaigns from cornerbacks in recent seasons. Gardner won the award last year while pacing the NFL in passes defended (20). He also added two interceptions and 75 total tackles (3 tackles for a loss) to round out his stat sheet. Before the season was over, it was quite obvious that opposing quarterbacks preferred to throw away from Sauce.

In 2017, Lattimore was named DROY after picking off five passes in his debut season with the New Orleans Saints. He also contributed with 18 passes defended, 56 total tackles and 1 forced fumble.

Peters' first year with the Kansas City Chiefs was one of the best rookie seasons of all time. En route to DROY honors, Peters ended the 2015 campaign tied for the NFL lead in the following departments: interceptions (8), passes defended (26) and pick-sixes (2). He also chipped in 60 tackles. Peters' 280 interception yards were more than double that of anyone else in 2015 and resulted in the ninth-best mark in league history.

Based on those seasons, Gonzalez will need to be around the action early and often to be considered for the 2023 DROY. He will have to defend approximately 20 passes throughout the season while also delivering as a willing and physical tackler.

Given his height/range, Gonzalez should do fine in the interception category. He was able to swipe 4 picks for 118 return yards in his final season playing for the Oregon Ducks. A similar output in 2023 would certainly suffice, although that's obviously easier said than done.

What Can Gonzalez Offer?

In the modern NFL, we are seeing an influx of taller defensive backs to better enforce physicality on wide receivers. Corners like Sauce (6-foot-3) and Tariq Woolen (6-foot-4) are the latest archetypes of this nature, utilizing their longer wingspans to ballhawk up and down the field.

Gonzalez absolutely falls into that category. Additionally, Gonzalez has quality ball skills and athleticism. At the 2023 NFL Combine, he ran his 40-yard dash in 4.38 seconds and produced a very bouncy vertical leap of 41.5 inches. He also completed 14 reps on the bench press, which is solid among cornerbacks.

Remember, Gonzalez will be coming into the NFL under one of the GOATs: Bill Belichick. In his 25th year as head coach of the Pats, Belichick -- a defensive mastermind -- will look to get the most out of Gonzalez. Belichick has been successful with countless defensive backs throughout his coaching tenure in New England, including when Stephon Gilmore won the NFL Defensive Player of the Year award (2019). Belichick has also produced a DROY winner previously: linebacker Jerrod Mayo (2008).

Christian Gonzalez's 2023 Outlook

As a member of the Pats, Gonzalez will be dealing with tons of offensive talent in the AFC East. Along with the Aaron Rodgers-led Jets, New England will tussle twice apiece with Josh Allen's Buffalo Bills and Tyreek Hill's Miami Dolphins. On top of that, the Patriots will open the 2023 season at home against the defending NFC Champion Philadelphia Eagles.

So, yes, Gonzalez will have plenty of opportunities to prove himself against the NFL's elite.

Gonzalez will likely be the starting left cornerback in 2023, opposite Jonathan Jones. Ourlads has Adrian Phillips and Kyle Dugger as New England's starting safeties, with Marcus Jones slated for the nickel.

Listed at +1100 to win the AP NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year award, Gonzalez is an intriguing bet.


The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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