NASCAR Best Bets: Bass Pro Shops Night Race

Bristol always brings the heat.

But with it being a cutoff race for the first round of the playoffs? Whew, doggies, we are about to see a show.

Entering Saturday's Bass Pro Shops Night Race, no drivers are more than 20 points behind the cutline, meaning nobody's truly out of it. And with Joey Logano being the lone contender locked into the second round, we're gonna see some nervous drivers.

To top it all off, NASCAR is bringing back the same tire it used at Bristol in March, which featured massive tire falloff and led to one of the best races of the year. It's hard to make it more fun than Saturday promises to be.

It doesn't hurt matters that I do think there is betting value to be had in FanDuel Sportsbook's NASCAR betting odds. Not all of it lies in playoff drivers -- most of it doesn't, in fact -- but it's still drivers who have run well at Bristol or similar tracks and could flash speed Saturday night.

Let's dive into who my model likes prior to practice and qualifying.

NASCAR Betting Picks for Bristol

Tyler Reddick to Finish Top 5 (+280)

I've got decent value on Tyler Reddick to win at +2200. I think it's a good number.

Reddick's track history at Bristol, though, gives me some pause, forcing me to settle for the top-five, instead.

Specifically, Reddick has run six Cup Series races here on the concrete. He has just one top-10 in that span, a fourth-place finish back in 2020. During the Next-Gen era, Reddick's best finish is 15th.

Some of that is due to crashes and bad luck, though, so I don't want to put too much weight on that. Additionally, he does have a win on his ledger here back in the 2019 Xfinity Series race. He was runner-up and led 61 laps in the other Bristol race that year.

This should be a good track for Reddick as dirt racers tend to run well on concrete. The tire falloff creates slick conditions, too, which plays into Reddick's strengths, as evidenced by his three podiums in six Darlington Next-Gen races.

Thus, my model has Reddick at 34.6% to finish top 5, up from 26.3% implied. Maybe it's purely a projection based on his background and profile, and maybe the track history concerns should be greater. But I think Reddick is undervalued here, so I side with the model.

Bubba Wallace to Finish Top 10 (+240)

Reddick's teammate, Bubba Wallace finished 29th here in the spring. But he had a 15th-place average running position, and his recent record on slick tracks is super promising.

The Cup Series has run four races this year at either Darlington or Richmond, the two other tracks most heavily defined by tire falloff. In those, Wallace has two top-10s, and he had a top-seven average running position in both races where he finished lower than that.

Additionally, Bristol has been a decent track for Wallace. He had a 13th-place average running position here last year, and he had some solid runs even back when he ran for lesser teams.

Because of the performance at tracks with lots of tire falloff, my model has Wallace at 45.2% to finish top 10. That's way off his 29.4% implied odds. It's possible I'm too high, but there's enough wiggle room here to be overselling Wallace and still be above market.

Todd Gilliland to Finish Top 10 (+750)

Short tracks have typically been Todd Gilliland's forte in the Cup Series, and with his overall form trending up, I think we can buy into him at this number.

In his first two trips here, Gilliland finished 18th and 16th. Those finishes were 5.2 and 6.0 spots better than his average finish in those respective seasons, so it did look like an above-average track for him.

Gilliland has cranked out a healthy number of respectable finishes on tracks with lots of tire falloff this year. He was 17th or better in three of four races at Darlington or Richmond, including a 12th-place average running position in the first Darlington race.

My model has Gilliland at 18.3% to finish top 10, up from 11.8% implied. I agree with the model that the market is undervaluing Gilliland.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.