Mississippi State vs Texas Basketball Prediction, Odds, Picks, Best Bets for March 4

The Texas Longhorns (16-13, 5-11 SEC) will attempt to end a three-game losing streak when they hit the road to play the Mississippi State Bulldogs (20-9, 8-8 SEC) on March 4, 2025 at Humphrey Coliseum.

Before you place your bet on this matchup at FanDuel Sportsbook, here are the NCAA basketball odds and spreads you need to know.

Mississippi State vs. Texas Game Info and Odds

• Game day: Tuesday, March 4, 2025
• Game time: 8 p.m. ET
• TV channel: SEC Network
• Location: Starkville, Mississippi
• Arena: Humphrey Coliseum

Mississippi State vs. Texas Picks and Prediction

All college basketball win probability predictions and picks are according to numberFire.
Prediction: Mississippi State win (75.8%)

Take a look at these betting trends and insights before you bet on Tuesday's Mississippi State-Texas spread (Mississippi State -7.5) or over/under (150.5 points).

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Mississippi State vs. Texas: ATS Betting Stats and Trends

• Mississippi State is 13-16-0 ATS this season.
• Texas has compiled a 13-16-0 ATS record so far this season.
• Mississippi State covers the spread when it is a 7.5-point favorite or more 46.2% of the time. That's less often than Texas covers as an underdog of 7.5 or more (50%).
• The Bulldogs sport a worse record against the spread in home games (6-8-0) than they do on the road (5-5-0).
• The Longhorns have performed better against the spread at home (8-9-0) than on the road (4-5-0) this year.
• Mississippi State is 6-10-0 against the spread in conference play this season.
• Texas is 6-10-0 against the spread in SEC play this year.

Mississippi State vs. Texas: Moneyline Betting Stats

• Mississippi State has been victorious in 17, or 73.9%, of the 23 contests it has been chosen as moneyline favorites in this season.
• This season, the Bulldogs have been victorious 10 times in 11 chances when named as a favorite of at least -319 or shorter on the moneyline.
• Texas has won one of the nine games it was listed as the moneyline underdog this season (11.1%).
• The Longhorns have played as a moneyline underdog of +255 or longer in just two games this season, which they lost both.
• The moneyline set for this matchup implies Mississippi State has a 76.1% chance of walking away with the win.

Mississippi State vs. Texas Head-to-Head Comparison

• Mississippi State's +174 scoring differential (outscoring opponents by 6.0 points per game) is a result of scoring 79.1 points per game (59th in college basketball) while giving up 73.1 per outing (214th in college basketball).
• Mississippi State's leading scorer, Josh Hubbard, is 60th in the country averaging 18.3 points per game.
• Texas puts up 78.0 points per game (78th in college basketball) while giving up 70.8 per contest (147th in college basketball). It has a +209 scoring differential and outscores opponents by 7.2 points per game.
• Tre Johnson's 20.6 points per game paces Texas and ranks ninth in the country.
• The Bulldogs win the rebound battle by an average of 3.6 boards. They are grabbing 35.9 rebounds per game (25th in college basketball) compared to their opponents' 32.3 per contest.
• KeShawn Murphy paces the team with 7.6 rebounds per game (95th in college basketball play).
• The Longhorns win the rebound battle by an average of 1.5 boards. They are pulling down 32.4 rebounds per game (156th in college basketball) compared to their opponents' 30.9.
• Arthur Kaluma paces the team with 7.9 rebounds per game (68th in college basketball).
• Mississippi State averages 99.2 points per 100 possessions on offense (93rd in college basketball), and allows 91.7 points per 100 possessions (137th in college basketball).
• The Longhorns rank 53rd in college basketball with 101.4 points scored per 100 possessions, and 149th defensively with 92.0 points conceded per 100 possessions.

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