Mets vs Yankees Prediction, Odds, Moneyline, Spread & Over/Under for July 4

Odds updated as of 2:12 a.m.

The MLB's Friday slate includes the New York Mets facing the New York Yankees.

Here's everything you need to know before checking out today's MLB odds and spreads on FanDuel Sportsbook.

Mets vs Yankees Game Info

• New York Mets (50-38) vs. New York Yankees (48-39)
• Date: Friday, July 4, 2025
• Time: 3:10 p.m. ET
• Venue: Citi Field -- Queens, New York
• Coverage: MLB Network, SNY, and YES

Mets vs Yankees Odds & Moneyline

• All MLB odds, betting lines and prop bets are available on FanDuel Sportsbook.
• Moneyline: NYM: (-110) | NYY: (-106)
• Spread: NYM: +1.5 (-176) | NYY: -1.5 (+146)
• Total: 9 -- Over: (-122) | Under: (-100)

Mets vs Yankees Probable Starting Pitchers

Probable Pitchers: Justin Hagenman (Mets) - 0-0, 1.50 ERA vs Marcus Stroman (Yankees) - 1-1, 8.16 ERA

This contest's pitching matchup is set, as the Mets will send Justin Hagenman to the mound, while Marcus Stroman (1-1) will answer the bell for the Yankees. Hagenman did not appear in a game when his team was the moneyline favorite last season. The Yankees have a 3-1-0 ATS record in Stroman's four starts that had a set spread. The Yankees have always been the moneyline underdog when Stroman starts this season.

Mets vs Yankees Prediction & Pick

All MLB win probability predictions and picks are according to numberFire.
Prediction: Mets win (52.7%)

Mets vs Yankees Moneyline

• The Mets vs Yankees moneyline has the Mets as a -110 favorite, while the Yankees are a -106 underdog on the road.

Mets vs Yankees Spread

• The Mets are hosting the Yankees and are 1.5 on the runline and -176 to cover, while New York is +146 to cover the spread.

Mets vs Yankees Over/Under

• The over/under for the Mets versus Yankees game on July 4 has been set at 9, with -122 odds on the over and -100 odds on the under.

Bet on New York Mets vs. New York Yankees on FanDuel today!

Mets vs Yankees Betting Trends

• The Mets have been favorites in 58 games this season and have come away with the win 38 times (65.5%) in those contests.
• This season, the Mets have come away with a win 38 times in 58 chances when named as a favorite of at least -110 or better on the moneyline.
• The Mets and their opponents have hit the over in 36 of their 84 games with a total this season.
• The Mets have posted a record of 42-42-0 against the spread this season.
• The Yankees have compiled a 1-6 record in games they were listed as the moneyline underdog (winning 14.3% of those games).
• The Yankees have gone 1-6 when they have played as a moneyline underdog with odds of -106 or longer (14.3%).
• The Yankees have combined with their opponents to go over the total 34 times this season for a 34-48-4 record against the over/under.
• The Yankees are 38-48-0 ATS this season.

Mets Player Leaders

• Juan Soto has 80 hits this season and a team-best OBP of .396. He has a .260 batting average and a slugging percentage of .500.
• He is 76th in batting average, fourth in on-base percentage, and 23rd in slugging among all qualified hitters in baseball.
• Soto has hit safely in two games in a row. In his last five games he is batting .278 with three walks and two RBIs.
• Pete Alonso has 95 hits to go with a slugging percentage of .532, both of which are tops among New York hitters this season. He's batting .287 with an on-base percentage of .378.
• His batting average ranks 27th among qualified players, his on-base percentage 15th, and his slugging percentage 12th.
• Francisco Lindor has collected 90 base hits, an OBP of .329 and a slugging percentage of .455 this season.
• Lindor brings a two-game hitting streak into this matchup. In his last five games he is hitting .250 with two doubles, a home run, a walk and three RBIs.
• Brandon Nimmo has been key for New York with 80 hits, an OBP of .313 plus a slugging percentage of .463.
• Nimmo has safely hit in two games in a row. In his last five games he is hitting .286 with a double, two home runs and six RBIs.

Yankees Player Leaders

• Aaron Judge has racked up a team-best OBP (.474) and slugging percentage (.734), and leads the Yankees in hits (116, while batting .364).
• He is first in batting average, first in on-base percentage and first in slugging percentage among all qualifying hitters in the majors.
• Judge enters this game on a three-game hitting streak. In his last five games he is hitting .571 with two doubles, three home runs, nine walks and seven RBIs.
• Cody Bellinger is batting .269 with 15 doubles, three triples, 12 home runs and 28 walks. He's slugging .456 with an on-base percentage of .327.
• His batting average ranks 59th among all qualified players, his on-base percentage ranks 81st, and he is 54th in slugging.
• Paul Goldschmidt has 18 doubles, a triple, eight home runs and 27 walks while batting .286.
• Trent Grisham is hitting .249 with seven doubles, a triple, 16 home runs and 39 walks.

Mets vs Yankees Head to Head

• 5/18/2025: 8-2 NYY (Favorite: Yankees, Spread: -1.5, Total: 9, Favorite Moneyline: -164, Underdog Moneyline: +138)
• 5/17/2025: 3-2 NYM (Favorite: Yankees, Spread: -1.5, Total: 10, Favorite Moneyline: -134, Underdog Moneyline: +114)
• 5/16/2025: 6-2 NYY (Favorite: Yankees, Spread: -1.5, Total: 9, Favorite Moneyline: -146, Underdog Moneyline: +124)
• 7/24/2024: 12-3 NYM (Favorite: Yankees, Spread: -1.5, Total: 8.5, Favorite Moneyline: -172, Underdog Moneyline: +144)
• 7/23/2024: 3-2 NYM (Favorite: Yankees, Spread: -1.5, Total: 9, Favorite Moneyline: -156, Underdog Moneyline: +132)
• 6/26/2024: 12-2 NYM (Favorite: Yankees, Spread: -1.5, Total: 8.5, Favorite Moneyline: -126, Underdog Moneyline: +108)
• 6/25/2024: 9-7 NYM (Favorite: Yankees, Spread: -1.5, Total: 8.5, Favorite Moneyline: -144, Underdog Moneyline: +122)
• 7/26/2023: 3-1 NYY (Favorite: Yankees, Spread: -1.5, Total: 8.5, Favorite Moneyline: -146, Underdog Moneyline: +124)
• 7/25/2023: 9-3 NYM (Favorite: Mets, Spread: -1.5, Total: 8.5, Favorite Moneyline: -116, Underdog Moneyline: -102)
• 6/14/2023: 4-3 NYM (Favorite: Mets, Spread: -1.5, Total: 7.5, Favorite Moneyline: -112, Underdog Moneyline: -104)

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