Hawaii Bowl: Best Bets and Props for South Florida vs. San Jose State

Tuesday's Hawaii Bowl features an intriguing storyline between the South Florida Bulls and San Jose State Spartans. South Florida was picked in the preseason to finish fourth in the American Athletic Conference (AAC) paired with a 7.5-win total, yet the Bulls are 6-6. San Jose State held a 4.5-win total in the preseason and smashed expectations by going 7-5.

The Bulls are looking to win a bowl game for the second consecutive season, and the Trojans are hoping to capture their first bowl win since 2015. Tonight's matchup -- which is slated for an 8 p.m. ET kickoff -- could be must-see TV with its 63.5-point total.

Using the college football odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, what are the best bets for the Hawaii Bowl?

All college football odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published.

South Florida vs. San Jose State Betting Picks

San Jose State -3.5 (-102)

As mentioned, there's a lot more positivity surrounding San Jose State's season compared to where South Florida stands. However, the Bulls of recent have been playing better football with a 4-2 record to end the regular season. The Trojans are an alarming 2-6 against the spread (ATS) over the last eight contests, and this includes getting roughed up by Boise State and UNLV by an average margin of -16.0 points in November.

Still, most of the numbers we have suggest San Jose State is the superior team. For example, the squad ranks 88th in NET EPA per play, compared to the Bulls ranking 110th in the category. Simply put, South Florida is one of the worst teams to make a bowl.

The Trojans feature one of the nation's most potent passing attacks, logging a 64.6% pass-play rate (the highest) along with 41.6 passing attempts (sixth-most) and 325.4 passing yards (fourth-most) per game. It's been efficient, too, at 7.8 yards per passing attempt (top 26%).

After winning the highly coveted triple crown, wide receiver Nick Nash was regarded as a Biletnikoff Award snub by some as Travis Hunter took home the award. If you missed out on Nash cooking this season, get ready to fire up some past film as the superstar wideout elected to sit out of this bowl game.

SJSU's passing game is still plenty good enough to take advantage of South Florida's pass D that's in the bottom 22% of EPA allowed per drop back. Additionally, the Bulls permit 8.5 yards per passing attempt (bottom 14%) and 293.4 passing yards per game (bottom 1%), compared to 4.3 yards allowed per carry (top 47%). Running the ball won't be much of a worry as the Trojans feature the lowest rush-play rate in college football (35.4%).

Quarterback Walker Eget sports an 85.2 player grade and 84.2 passing grade, via Pro Football Focus. Wideout Justin Lockhart is no a slouch, either, boasting a 74.9 PFF receiving grade and 973 receiving yards on the season. South Florida's defense still has its work cut out for itself.

I expect San Jose State's offense to be too much in this one. College Football Nerds' prediction model favors the Trojans by a score of 29.1-15.8. That margin is enough to go with a SJSU cover, with or without Nash.

South Florida Under 30.5 Points (-114)

Sticking with College Football Nerds' model, its 15.8-point total for the Bulls implies their 30.5-point prop is way too high. numberFire's college football projections also has South Florida scoring 26.3 points. Either way, the under for USF's team prop is shaping up to be an enticing bet.

The Bulls also lean on the pass with a 50.2% pass-play rate (top 34%). However, it's not efficient with 6.6 yards per passing attempt (bottom 24%) while ranking 114th in EPA per drop back. The Trojans' pass defense is extremely vulnerable, sitting at 123rd in EPA allowed per drop back and 49th in EPA allowed per rushing attempt.

That matchup goes against this under pick, but the Trojans' exceptional red zone defense could be our saving grace. Opponents score on only 77.5% of red zone possessions against SJSU. That initially seems quite bad, but it actually sits atop the top 16% for defenses. On the flip side, South Florida is in the bottom 43% for red zone scoring rate. Plus, the unit is in the bottom 38% of third-down conversion rate.

Key downs and situational offense have been pressing problems for the Bulls all season, and I don't expect that to change tonight. South Florida also gives up 1.5 turnovers per game (bottom 42%), and the Trojans force 2.0 takeaways per contest (top 7%). Forcing turnovers would also ensure that some of these USF drives come up empty.

The biggest concern for the under will be the pace of play. Each team is among the top 9% for the fewest seconds per play, and we already talked about each squad's tendencies to air it out. This pick will likely hinge on San Jose State winning key downs, the red zone, and forcing turnovers. All this pairs nicely with the Trojans to cover. SJSU will need to win these key areas to win comfortably while limiting South Florida's scoring output.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.