NFL Expert Best Bets, Predictions, and Player Props for Christmas Day

Each week throughout the NFL season, the staff here at FanDuel Research will bring you their favorite bets on the board -- including for Christmas Day.

Below, each staffer gives their favorite bet across Christmas Day's two-game slate within FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL betting odds.

Here's where they're seeing value for the holidays.

Note: All odds come from the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. Betting lines and our NFL projections may change after this article is published.

NFL Expert Picks for Christmas Day

Austin Swaim, Senior Editor

Dalton Schultz Over 3.5 Receptions (-120)

Dalton Schultz caught five of eight targets in Week 16 despite Tank Dell playing most of three quarters. With Dell out and plenty of attention shifting to Nico Collins, he'll likely be busy again facing a Baltimore Ravens team allowing the 12th-most targets to tight ends.

Austan Kas, Senior Editor

Patrick Mahomes Under 255.5 Passing Yards (-113)

Patrick Mahomes is averaging 214.6 passing yards per game on the road this year and has cleared 256 passing yards in just two of seven road games (at Carolina and at Vegas). A road matchup at the Pittsburgh Steelers is a tough spot as Pittsburgh ranks fifth in overall defense, per numberFire's schedule-adjusted metrics, and is allowing 236.9 passing yards per game on the season.

Aidan Cotter, Writer

Chiefs-Steelers Under 43.5 (-105)

The Steelers versus the Kansas City Chiefs has all the makings of a barn-burner as both sides are outside the top-10 in points per game. And while KC grades out well in numberFire's schedule-adjusted offense metric, they're on the road against a Pittsburgh defense that's top five in adjusted defense. Both sides are allowing fewer than 20 points per game this season, so I'll happily take the under here.

Annie Nader, Writer

Nico Collins Longest Reception Over 28.5 Yards (-118)

Nico Collins sees an 11.1 aDOT (average depth of target) and is netting 3.09 yards per route run and 15.1 yards per catch. He’s logged a 28-plus yard reception in eight out of 10 games this season, including five of his last six. The Ravens entered Week 16 with a 27th-ranked schedule-adjusted pass defense and cough up the 10th-most yards per catch to WRs. Though Baltimore will devote ample focus to Collins with Dell out of the picture, this defense is capable of getting burned for a big play, and Houston’s offense might need a few of those as 4.5-point home ‘dogs.

Riley Thomas, Writer

CJ Stroud Over 241.5 Passing Yards (-114)

After logging 39 passing attempts in Week 16, Stroud likely has another lofty workload ahead against the Ravens’ pass-funnel defense; FanDuel Sportsbook has his passing attempts prop at 34.5. Prior to Week 16, the Ravens had the third-best schedule-adjusted rush defense and the eighth-worst adjusted pass D. Stroud logged 244 passing yards and 0.01 expected points added per drop back (EPA/db) against the Chiefs. The Texans being listed as a 4.5-point underdog also adds the potential for a negative game script. My gift to you this Christmas is the over for Stroud’s 241.5-passing yard prop. He’s surpassed this total in four of his last five outings.

Skyler Carlin, Writer

Lamar Jackson Over 218.5 Passing Yards (-114)

Lamar Jackson gets to play indoors for the first time in December, and he's thrown for 237-plus yards in two of his last three starts while averaging 252.5 passing yards per game this season. Even in a stiff matchup against Houston's pass defense, Jackson has achieved 218-plus passing yards in 10 of his 15 starts in 2024, and he recently aired it out for 237 yards versus a Philly defense that is giving up the second-fewest passing yards per game (178.8).

Jim Sannes, Managing Editor

Xavier Worthy Any Time Touchdown (+260)

The Chiefs have started to utilize Xavier Worthy heavily in the red zone, giving him two rush attempts and four targets there on Saturday. Overall, he now has 5 carries and 15 targets in the red zone this year, helping him score in 7 of 15 games. I like the over in this game, so I'm fine betting on there being points. Given Worthy's recent role, he's a fun route for getting access.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.