Fantasy Football Start/Sit: Week 10

Week 10 sends another four teams on bye, three of which have been incredibly relevant for fantasy. Down several top quarterbacks and wide receivers, this week offers yet another test of your team's depth and your personal acumen as a fantasy manager.

Thankfully, FanDuel Research's fantasy football projections serve as a solid baseline for deciding who to slot into your starting lineup. But when we pair those projections with some recent historical data, even further lines can be drawn. From there, factors like game environment, strength of opponent, and the latest news can help shape our start/sit decisions.

Below, you'll find every fantasy-relevant player, sorted by position and bucketed into tiers. These tiers are meant to reflect your typical 12-team, half-PPR scoring formats with only one starting quarterback -- though the general rankings can be loosely applied to most formats. Any player not listed can be assumed sit-worthy in most leagues.

Here is the Week 10 fantasy football start/sit.

All betting references refer to the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. All statistics via NFL Next Gen Stats unless otherwise stated.

Fantasy Football Start/Sit: Week 10

Quarterback

Start

Jared Goff (DET)
I'm going against one of the golden rules of fantasy football, but Jared Goff is worth starting this week, even in an outdoor game. Now, Goff has not been especially impressive in fantasy this season, even on turf. He's finished as top 12 quarterback exactly one (1) time this season and only has two games above 20 fantasy points. But there's reason for optimism this week with Detroit showing a 29-point implied total against a Commanders secondary ranked 30th in schedule-adjusted pass defense. The Lions are coming off their fastest game of the year by adjusted pace -- one in which Goff posted his most pass attempts (37) since Week 1. That's not guaranteed with Detroit favored by more than a touchdown, but Washington has let up the third most fantasy points per dropback and the second highest passing touchdown rate in the league.

Jaxson Dart (NYG)
Jaxson Dart is a borderline must-start quarterback at this point. He's the QB5 in fantasy points per game (22.9) since taking over as the full-time starter in Week 4, finishing as a top 12 quarterback in four of six weeks as a starter. Dart has recorded a rushing touchdown in five of six starts, hitting 50 yards on the ground in four of those. He's fresh off his highest single-game completion percentage (73%) of the year and now draws a Bears secondary ranked 22nd in adjusted pass defense. Chicago has been the single-best fantasy matchup for opposing quarterbacks based on Brandon Gdula's player-level adjusted fantasy points allowed, and they've given up the fourth most fantasy points per dropback overall. In another smash spot, Dart has legitimate QB1 overall upside this week.

Sit

Justin Fields (NYJ)
Justin Fields remains a fantasy cheat code, even if his actual play and surrounding offensive environment is severely lacking. The rushing is so good that you’re starting him against the vast majority of opposing defenses -- he's hit 21 fantasy points in three of five full games, after all. Unfortunately, this week’s home matchup with the Browns is as tough as it gets. Cleveland sports numberFire's No. 4 defense, and they've given up the lowest Rushing Success Rate to opposing quarterbacks. They're the best run defense in football, and in a game featuring Week 10's lowest total (37.5) it's just hard to envision enough upside to counteract the glaring downside with Justin Fields.

Running Back

Start

Kyle Monangai (CHI)
Kyle Monangai is someone worth starting this week, even if starting running back D'Andre Swift is able to suit up. The rookie 7th-round pick exploded for 176 rushing yards on 26 carries, tacking on 22 receiving yards (on 5 targets) to finish with 21.3 fantasy points despite not scoring on the day. That was good for RB3 on the week, marking his second top 12 finish in the last three games. Monangai had slowly turned this Chicago backfield into a committee even before Swift went down, so it's hard to imagine him getting phased out after such a rock-solid performance. We could see the rookie eat again this week against a Giants front permitting the most yards per carry (5.9) and rushing yards over expected per attempt to opposing running backs. Entering Week 10, New York ranked dead-last in adjusted run defense, paving the way for another efficient day for Kyle Monangai.

Aaron Jones (MIN)
Aaron Jones has been solid in two games since returning from IR, putting up 14.8 fantasy points and 128 total yards on a combined 26 adjusted opportunities (carries plus 2x targets). After playing 53% of snaps in Week 8, Jones looked well on his way to fully taking over this Vikings backfield with a 77% first half snap rate in Week 9 before leaving the game with an injury. But he expects to play this week, and we should feel confident starting him in fantasy if active. Aaron Jones has finished as a top 20 running back in two of his four games this season and now gets a home date with Baltimore -- numberFire's 26th-ranked run defense which has been the fifth best matchup for running backs by adjusted fantasy points allowed.

Sit

Alvin Kamara (NO)
Alvin Kamara continues to be started in the majority of fantasy leagues, and I can't wrap my head around why. Kamara has cracked double-digit fantasy points only three times all season -- two of which came in the first two weeks. He's output his three worst games of the season over the last three weeks, totaling 4.4, 5.5, and 0.2 fantasy points while averaging just 13 adjusted opportunities on a 64% snap rate. The Saints are one of just three teams that have yet to output a positive EPA per play in a single game this season, and this week's 17-point implied total doesn't offer much room for touchdown upside. With Carolina rating as a league-average matchup for running backs, Kamara doesn't have much appeal so long as his workload remains light.

Jacory Croskey-Merritt (WAS)
Jacory Croskey-Merritt is in a similar mold as Kamara -- players started in too many leagues -- only Bill doesn't have a near-decades worth of fantasy excellence to fall back on. Since popping for 26 fantasy points back in Week 5, Croskey-Merritt has finished as the RB36 or worse in each of the past four weeks. He's still seen 12.3 rush attempts per game during this stretch, but he's turned that into just 39.3 yards per game and continues to be a nonfactor in the passing game. Again, there's still upside in store for Bill later in the season, but you can't feel good about starting him against Detroit's eighth-ranked run defense with his current workload. For Week 10, Bill is an easy sit.

Wide Receiver

Start

Alec Pierce (IND)
Alec Pierce is approaching weekly starting consideration in fantasy coming off his best game of the season. The field-stretcher set season-highs for receptions (6), targets (13), and yards (115) in Week 9, finishing as a top 15 wide receiver for the first time this season. He's now recorded at least 60 receiving yards in five of seven games this season. In Pierce's seven active games, he ranks third on the Colts in target share (20%) and easily leads the team in air yards share (47%) and downfield targets (5.4 per game). The Falcons pose a tough test overseas, but they have played single-high coverage at one of the highest rates in football. That should lead to plenty more downfield looks for Pierce, and he only needs to connect on a few of those to produce for fantasy.

Wan'Dale Robinson (NYG)
Despite managing just 9.1 fantasy points last week, Wan'Dale Robinson hauled in a season-best 9 receptions. He finished with a 34.4% target share and now ranks 16th in target share (27%) over the past five weeks. That gives him a rock-solid floor week-to-week, but this matchup against Chicago is what makes him such a strong fantasy option. Since Malik Nabers went down, Robinson has run 70% of his routes from the slot, according to PFF. Per Fantasy Points, the Bears have been the single-best schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing slot receivers. Start Wan'Dale knowing there's a 10-point floor, but don't be surprised if we see his first true ceiling game since Jaxson Dart took over.

Sit

Khalil Shakir (BUF)
Khalil Shakir has seen 15 targets in two games since Buffalo's bye, six more than the next-closest Bills pass-catcher. He's now cracked a 30% target share in three of the last four games -- a feat no other Bills receiver has done even once this season. And yet, Shakir's finished as a top-36 wide receiver just four times this season and only has three games with double-digit fantasy points (the three games he's got a touchdown). While Miami is a good matchup on paper, I'm skeptical Buffalo will ask enough from Shakir to make him fantasy-viable. It doesn't help that the 'Fins feature a man-heavy defense, nor that they played man at the highest rate of the year in their Week 3 date with Buffalo. With Shakir averaging just 0.85 yards per route run against man -- compared to 2.50 against zone -- he's a pretty easy sit, even in deeper formats.

Jameson Williams (DET)
If the last four games have taught us anything, it's that we have to pick our spots with Jameson Williams in fantasy. Over his past four games, Jamo has finished as the WR90, WR13, WR120, and WR14. He's seen at least an 80% snap rate in every game this season, so you're truly playing a guessing game with him week-to-week. This doesn't appear to be the best spot for him, however, even with Washington serving up the fourth most fantasy points per target to opposing wide receivers. Still, as big favorites outdoors, Williams may not get as many downfield looks as you'd typically expect. With safer options elsewhere, Jamo should sit on fantasy benches until Detroit returns indoors.

Tight End

Start

Harold Fannin (CLE)
Lost in Cleveland's disastrous season is how good rookie Harold Fannin Jr. has looked. Despite splitting looks with veteran David Njoku, Fannin exits the Browns' bye week as the TE11 in fantasy points per game (8.4) and ranked fifth at the position in target-per-route rate (24%). That sets him up well in a soft matchup against the Jets -- a defense which ranked 28th in adjusted pass defense even before shipping off their two best defensive players. For the season, New York has let up the sixth highest target rate to opposing tight ends, setting Harold Fannin up for another busy afternoon.

Theo Johnson (NYG)
Theo Johnson hasn't shown much yardage upside with Jaxson Dart under center, but he's quickly established himself as the rookie's go-to target inside the 20. Johnson has caught five touchdowns in six games with Dart, ranking 12th in fantasy points per game (9.8) during this six-game stretch. He leads the Giants with a 30% red zone target share over the past six games while averaging a respectable 5.5 targets overall. That's the profile of a tight end we want to play in plus matchups like what New York gets this week. With a 22.5-point total and the Giants slight underdogs, Johnson should again be a red zone threat in a game they'll likely need to throw early and often in.

Sit

TJ Hockenson (MIN)
T.J. Hockenson salvaged his day with a touchdown in Week 9, but he still managed just 8.1 fantasy points. He enters Week 10 ranked outside the top 20 at the position in fantasy points per game (6.2), and his limited sample with JJ McCarthy under center doesn't instill much confidence of that changing. In McCarthy's three starts, Hockenson ranks fourth on the team in target share (15.6%) and has seen just 19.7 air yards per game. Last week showed even a touchdown won't propel 'Hock to fantasy relevance; he belongs on the bench until further notice.

YourWay puts the power of the sportsbook in your hands. Now you can adjust lines, customize player props, and get instant odds when you create bets you can't find anywhere else! Learn about today’s other offers at FanDuel Sportsbook Promos.

Which bets stand out to you this week? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's latest NFL betting odds to see the full menu of options.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.