Fantasy Football Buy Low: Wide Receiver Breakout Candidates for Week 6

Whether you're deciding who to start in season-long, who to roster in NFL DFS, or which NFL prop bets to consider on FanDuel Sportsbook, there are still plenty of ways to buy low on players poised to bounce back from disappointing outings.

While looking ahead at the games across the NFL, which wide receivers should we buy low on ahead of this week?

All fantasy football projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook.

Wide Receivers to Buy Low in Fantasy Football

Chris Olave, Saints

We could put Chris Olave atop buy-low wide receivers every week. He's enjoying a prominent role with the New Orleans Saints, averaging 10.8 targets per game paired with a 31.4% target share, 36.5% air yards share, and 23.1% red zone target share. However, Olave is averaging just 9.2 fantasy points, 6.6 catches, and 48.8 receiving yards per game while scoring only one touchdown this season.

This has led to Pro Football Focus awarding Olave with the worst plus/minus expected fantasy points (-25.3). NFL Next Gen Stats hammer home his inefficiencies, giving Olave a -6.0% catch rate over expectation (CROE) and -19.3 receiving yards over expectation (RecYOE).

Could he finally have a breakout game against the New England Patriots?

New England comes off a big-time win over the Buffalo Bills. While the defense turned in a nice performance, the secondary is vulnerable, giving up 8.2 yards per passing attempt (fourth-most) and the eighth-most yards per downfield target. The Patriots still have the sixth-worst adjusted pass defense.

This plays into Olave's hands -- especially when he touts a 35.2% downfield target share along with a team-high 3.8 downfield targets per game. Quarterback play hasn't been a big issue, either, as Spencer Rattler touts a 70.5 PFF player grade paired with a 72.7 pass grade on passing attempts of 10 to 19 yards.

In fact, Rattler is fresh off his best performance yet with 0.18 expected points added per dropback (EPA/db), 7.3 yards per passing attempt, and 225 passing yards. He's been exceeding low offseason expectations by posting the ninth-most on-target throws and second-lowest bad throw rate.

Week 6's clash lists the Pats as only 3.5-point favorites, making this a sneaky upset pick. A Rattler-Olave pairing is an under-the-radar stack this week. Olave has a solid shot of excelling downfield, and New Orleans' 21.5-point implied total could lead to finding the end zone thanks to a healthy 23.1% red zone target share.

Troy Franklin, Broncos

Since posting 20.0 fantasy points in Week 2, Troy Franklin has averaged only 3.0 catches, 32.7 receiving yards, and 5.4 fantasy points per game since Week 3. However, he's still the Denver Broncos' WR2 with a 63.6% snap share and 76.5% route rate during the span (second-highest among wideouts).

His 22.4% target share from Weeks 1 and 2 has dropped to 16.8% in the split, but Franklin is still getting valuable targets thanks to a 32.4% downfield target share and 40.0% red zone target share over the last three. We have evidence for some positive regression, including finding the end zone. Denver has logged 23.0 points per game (PPG) since Week 3, yet Franklin has not scored once with a 40.0% red zone target share.

The Broncos should keep up their production against the New York Jets -- who are ceding 31.4 PPG (second-most). Furthermore, this D has the third-worst adjusted pass defense while surrendering 7.7 yards per passing attempt (seventh-most) and the ninth-most yards per downfield target. Denver carries a 26.5-point team total as 7.0-point favorites for Sunday's meeting in London.

Across the entire season, Franklin touts a 32.7% downfield target share (second-most) and 41.2% red zone target share (the most). Both of these marks should lead to fantasy points on Sunday. Not only are the Broncos facing a weak defense, New York has struggled against the deep ball. Bo Nix is more than capable of finding Franklin downfield thanks to an 82.6 pass grade on attempts of 20 or more yards.

Isaiah Bond, Browns

The Cleveland Browns' passing attack hasn't led to much fantasy success, averaging only 5.2 yards per passing attempt (the fewest) and 192.4 passing yards per game (ninth-fewest) while recording only 14.6 points per game (second-fewest). They made a quarterback switch in Week 5, starting rookie Dillon Gabriel. He posted an underwhelming -0.19 EPA/db in the start, but it was still an improvement over Joe Flacco's -0.41 EPA/db from Week 1 to 4.

Cleveland receiving corps has experienced a shake up due to the injury of Cedric Tillman (hamstring), which has led to an elevated role for rookie Isaiah Bond. Tillman had only a 23.1% snap share in Week 4 before sustaining his injury, making Bond a starter since Week 4. During the span, he's averaging 6.5 targets, 2.5 catches, 43.5 receiving yards, and 5.6 fantasy points per game. Pro Football Focus has Bond with the seventh-worst plus/minus for expected fantasy points (-14.8) paired with a -7.9 CROE and 2.9 RecYOE since Week 4.

While he's showing inefficiencies, Bond has been more effective than the offense's No. 1 WR, Jerry Jeudy -- who carries a -13.3% CROE and -14.1 RecYOE. Bond is already enjoying a comparable workload over the past two games, posting a 19.7% target share, 32.5% air yards share, and 18.2% red zone target share compared to Jeudy's marks of 21.2%, 38.2%, and 18.2%.

Week 6's opponent is the Pittsburgh Steelers, who are giving up 8.2 yards per passing attempt (third-most), 260.5 passing yards per game (third-most), the fourth-most yards per downfield target, and sixth-highest pass success rate. With Gabriel providing some improvement in Week 5, the Browns' passing attack could finally produce solid fantasy numbers on Sunday. Among Cleveland's wideouts, I like Bond over Jeudy.

Bond actually leads the receiving corps with 1.05 yards per route run on the season, and he's posted 1.55 yards per route run since Week 4, compared to Jeudy's clip of 0.93. The rookie already has usage on par with the offense's WR1, and better efficiency suggests a more promising ceiling.

Bond is more of a deep-league buy-low, but there is an angle to fantasy production.

New to FanDuel Sportsbook? You’ll receive $300 in Bonus Bets if your first $5+ bet wins! See here for full terms and conditions. Learn about today’s other offers at FanDuel Sportsbook Promos.

Which NFL bets stand out to you? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's latest NFL betting odds to see the full menu of options.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.