Fantasy Football Buy Low: Running Back Breakout Candidates (Week 14)

Most fantasy football trade deadlines have come and gone, but it's never too late to buy low on underperforming running backs.

Whether you're deciding who to start in season-long, who to roster in DFS, or which props to consider on FanDuel Sportsbook, there are still plenty of ways to buy low on players poised to bounce back from disappointing outings.

So, with the 2024 NFL season entering the home stretch, which running backs should buy-low on ahead of Week 14?

All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook. Statistics via NFL Next Gen Stats and Pro Football Focus unless otherwise stated.

Buy-Low Running Back Targets for Week 14

Kenneth Walker, Seattle Seahawks

Kenneth Walker III had his worst fantasy performance of the season last week. K9 managed just 5.6 fantasy points despite the win and was held below 4.0 yards per carry for the fifth consecutive game, so fantasy managers may have their patience running thin at this critical point of the season.

But Walker's utilization remains elite. He's averaged 23.6 adjusted opportunities (carries plus 2x targets) and a 40.5% red zone opportunity share during this five-game stretch, and his target share has held steady at 12.8%.

Last week's 22 adjusted opportunities resulted in only 46 scrimmage yards, and Walker saw backup Zach Charbonnet score the Seattle Seahawks lone rushing touchdown. But Walker dominated red zone snaps (83.3% to 41.7%) and maintained a 45% red zone opportunity share.

That showed up in his expected fantasy points (xFP). Based on PFF's xFP model, Walker had a 10.1-point difference between actual and expected fantasy points in Week 13. That made him easily Week 13's biggest underperformer at the position.

We've seen how high Walker's ceiling is, and the Seahawks haven't been shy about loading him up with high-leverage touches. Though he's scored just once in the last five games, PFF has him at 4.1 expected touchdowns.

I'm willing to bet that some touchdown regression is coming, making him worth targeting on FanDuel's main DFS slate the next three weeks. That includes Week 14's slate where Walker carries a $7,900 salary against an Arizona Cardinals defense that's allowed the second-highest rushing success rate to opposing RBs, according to Next Gen Stats.

James Conner, Arizona Cardinals

James Conner has been a rock-solid RB2 for much of the season, but he's posted a pair of single-digit fantasy-point outings since Arizona's Week 11 bye. His DFS salary has dropped to $7,600 as a result, but the underlying usage is still plenty worth inserting into starting lineups.

Though Conner's been held to 7.4 and 9.6 fantasy points the last two weeks, he's still totaled 17 and 25 adjusted opportunities while averaging a 63% snap rate. The Cardinals failed to reach their season average for points in both outings, so it's no wonder their top back has lacked fantasy upside.

But we've seen Conner flirt with 20 fantasy points with regularity this season, even if he's still looking for a signature ceiling game. But he's finished as a top-20 RB in 8 of 12 games -- a feat well within his range of outcomes given the upcoming schedule.

According to PFF, the Cardinals have a top-10 running back schedule the rest of the way. That includes dates with the Seahawks, Carolina Panthers, New England Patriots, and Los Angeles Rams -- all teams in the bottom half of the league in fantasy points allowed to running backs.

Consequently, Conner is someone whose best days may still be ahead of him. And with the Cardinals fighting for a playoff spot in the NFC, we should expect them to give Conner as much work as he can handle.

Conner is surely rostered in any season-long league, but I think it makes sense to target his backup -- Trey Benson -- to get potential upside with their soft remaining schedule. Benson is rostered in less than 25% of Yahoo! leagues but would immediately ascend to flex consideration if Conner were to miss time.

Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts

Stop me if you've heard this before: Jonathan Taylor is a buy-low.

JT's become a regular in this piece, and he's again someone I'm looking to buy-low on coming out of Week 13.

Granted, Taylor is coming off his best fantasy showing (16.8 points) in over a month, so we aren't buying quite as low as before. But he'd been held under 8.0 fantasy points in three of the previous four games and now has a bye in Week 14. As such, the buy-low window may still be open, and it's one I want to attack in DFS when the Indianapolis Colts return to the field.

Dating back to Week 9, Taylor is the second-biggest underperformer by xFP, averaging 5.3 fewer fantasy points per game than expected. He's seen 23.6 adjusted opportunities via an 86% snap rate during that stretch -- though, admittedly, his passing-game work has taken a hit since Anthony Richardson took back the starting job.

But the Colts' offense has improved with Richardson under center, and that's led to more high-value touches for JT. Since AR returned to the lineup, Taylor has averaged 5.3 red zone rush attempts per game and a 51.5% red zone opportunity share -- up from 3.4 attempts and a 42.1% share in his first seven games. That's led to only one touchdown, but PFF has him at three expected touchdowns in that stretch.

Again, this is a case where I'm looking to buy into some positive touchdown regression for a proven back on a team in the thick of a playoff hunt.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.