Fantasy Football: Bold Predictions for Week 17

There's nothing quite like the NFL.

Football is one of the most intense, exciting sports on the planet. The source of the now-ubiquitous saying "Any Given Sunday," the NFL is a place where even struggling teams have a chance to topple the best in the league. Anything can happen when you play only 17 regular season games a year.

That uncertainty is a huge driver behind the excitement the NFL generates each and every season. What's more fun than watching something totally unexpected unfold before your eyes?

That's why, this year, we'll be bringing you some bold predictions to watch for in each week the 2024 NFL season.

All NFL odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published.

NFL Bold Predictions for Week 17

Mike Evans Leads All WRs in Scoring

Mike Evans has produced just one top-five weekly finish in 2024. Can he come out on top in Week 17?

While he's yet to reach the fantasy pinnacle, he's finished inside the top 8 of all receivers in 5 out of 12 weeks this season. Evans is generating the 10th-most fantasy points per game and could piece it all together this Sunday against the Carolina Panthers.

The Panthers come in with the third-worst schedule-adjusted pass defense in the NFL and have some key injuries to speak of this week, including top corner Jaycee Horn (hip) and backup Chau Smith-Wade (illness). Horn has not practiced as of Wednesday.

Evans and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers own a massive 29.5-point implied team total with -112 odds on the over. That's good for the highest implied team total in Week 17.

In Week 13, Evans caught 8 of his 12 targets for 118 yards and a touchdown opposite Carolina en route to a WR6 finish. He's been enjoying a 27.5% target share, 43.6% air yards share, and 25.0% end zone target share across his past four games. Evans is also averaging 5.8 downfield targets and 3.35 yards per route run in this span, while his average depth of target (aDOT) stands at a healthy 13.0 yards.

Tampa Bay (8-7) and the Atlanta Falcons (8-7) are in a tight race for the NFC South crown. The Falcons own the head-to-head tiebreaker but come in as 4.5-point road 'dogs against the Washington Commanders this week.

The Bucs need to put the pedal to the metal in these final two games, and that would mean Evans staying heavily involved in this offense from start to finish on Sunday. Plus, he's currently chasing an 11th-straight 1,000-yard season and is 182 yards away from the feat with two games left. The narrative and matchup are on his side, so we should be ready for a stellar week from one of the best in the game.

De'Von Achane Scores Two Touchdowns

De'Von Achane has punched in 11 touchdowns through 15 games. He's scored twice in two separate games this season, and this weekend could serve as the third occurrence of the feat.

On the season, Achane is seeing a 54.7% red zone rush share and an 18.9% red zone target share (second-highest). Across his last four games, that red zone rush share has ballooned to 88.2%.

The Miami Dolphins are hanging onto playoff hopes by a thread and should look to pounce on a weak Cleveland Browns defense this Sunday. Notably, Cleveland has surrendered a seismic 73.68% red zone scoring percentage at home, good for the second-highest rate in the NFL.

Achane flashed his efficiency last week, nabbing 7.1 yards per carry en route to 190 scrimmage yards. He's caught at least six passes in four straight games and has totaled a whopping 30 targets in that span.

Miami's offense gets a downgrade on the road, so this will be no easy task for Achane. Even still, I like him to find the end zone a pair of times as a back who has multiple paths to score and has seen an uptick in usage and efficiency as of late.

Matthew Stafford Throws for 300+ Passing Yards

Matthew Stafford has tossed 270 total passing yards in his last two games combined. Can he and the Los Angeles Rams get back to more pass-heavy ways in a potential division-clinching game against the Arizona Cardinals this weekend?

The Cardinals struggle against the pass, with the 24th-ranked schedule-adjusted pass defense. Stafford is netting 255.6 passing yards versus bottom-15 pass defenses, up from his 238.2 average on the season.

As expected, a healthy Puka Nacua has done great things for the Rams' passing game. In the nine games since Nacua returned from injury, Stafford is netting 0.27 Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) per drop back.

On the season, Stafford has tossed 293-plus yards in 33.3% of games. He's hit that mark in 50.0% of games (5 out of 10) with Nacua alongside him and is averaging 249.8 passing yards in that split. Stafford's odds to hit 300 passing yards this weekend are currently sitting at +410, which imply just a 19.6% probability.

However, the Rams are favored by 6.5 points in a game that's showing a 47.5 over/under (tied for fourth-highest in Week 17). Los Angeles' 27.5 implied team total is tied for the second-highest behind the Buccaneers.

It doesn't hurt that Stafford and company will be at home. Here's a look at his passing output in home games alongside Nacua: 279, 293, 243, and 320 yards. Two of those games were against the Philadelphia Eagles (second-ranked pass D) and Minnesota Vikings (sixth-ranked pass D).

In a friendly home matchup and with his top weapons to throw to, Stafford can go for 300 yards.

Ja'Marr Chase Doesn't Crack the Top 15 Wide Receivers

On paper, Ja'Marr Chase's fantasy outlook for Week 17 is awesome. What's new?

His yardage prop is set a 92.5, and his touchdown odds are listed at -150. The Denver Broncos-Cincinnati Bengals showdown features a meaty 49.5 over/under, too.

However, there's a path for Chase to disappoint this Saturday.

The Broncos come in with the top-ranked schedule-adjusted pass defense in the league. Riley Moss is expected to rejoin corner Patrick Surtain II after Moss missed the past three games due to a knee injury.

Chase hasn't been overly impressive when facing stiff competition. He's averaging 71.6 yards versus the top-10 pass defenses but nets a whopping 107.9 yards outside the split. Chase has played six games against top-16 pass defenses. Here's a look at how he finished in those weeks: WR53, WR19, WR5, WR12, WR2, WR27. It hasn't all been bad, but he's certainly had some duds.

On top of all that, Chase is due for negative touchdown regression. He holds a high 10.9% touchdown rate after checking in with a 4.8% touchdown rate in 2023 and a 6.7% rate in 2022.

It wouldn't be all that surprising if the Broncos -- who allow the second-lowest red zone scoring percentage, the fewest touchdowns per game, and the fewest touchdowns to WRs -- managed to reel in Chase this weekend.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.