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Fantasy Football Buy Low: Running Back Breakout Candidates (Week 13)

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Fantasy Football Buy Low: Running Back Breakout Candidates (Week 13)

Arguably the best thing about season-long fantasy football is the ability to trade.

Via the trade market, teams can dramatically alter their rosters overnight in a way that just isn't possible from free agent pickups.

It's not always easy, but if you can identify underperforming players who have the potential to improve as the season progresses, that can be the difference in making the fantasy playoffs or getting banished to the loser's bracket.

That's what we'll try to do here. With trade deadlines looming, which running backs should you trade for in fantasy football ahead of Week 13?

All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook. Statistics via NFL Next Gen Stats and Pro Football Focus unless otherwise stated.

Buy-Low Running Back Targets for Week 13

Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts

Jonathan Taylor may be the biggest name readily available for trade right now. The Indianapolis Colts star has failed to crack double-digit fantasy points in three of his last four games, and he's only cleared 20 once all season.

That's likely opened a buy window for Taylor -- one I'd be eager to approach given his solidified role and favorable playoff schedule.

Though JT has struggled over the last month, he's still seen 22.8 adjusted opportunities (carries plus 2x targets) per game -- 16th in the NFL. That usage has helped him rate out as the RB17 in expected fantasy points (xFP) per game, according to PFF. By actual fantasy points, he's the RB36.

But Taylor's still top 20 in rushing yards over expectation per carry (RYOE/C) and raw yards per attempt (4.4), so I don't think this is a talent issue. Per PFF, Taylor has the eighth-most rushes of 10+ yards despite playing two fewer games than the guys above him.

There's no question that his receiving work has taken a hit since Anthony Richardson took back over as the starting quarterback, but Taylor's overall utilization with AR is still strong. Across six (full) games with Richardson, JT is averaging 20.7 adjusted opportunities, 88.3 scrimmage yards, and a 43% red zone opportunity share -- the latter of which would rank eighth among all running backs.

Now, JT and the Colts still haven't had their bye -- that's coming up in Week 14. So, if you're still battling for a playoff spot, he may not be the best trade target. But for teams that have cemented their place in the postseason, he could be a real league-winner if the price is right. From Weeks 15-17, Indianapolis faces the Denver Broncos (14th in fantasy points allowed to RBs), Tennessee Titans (12th), and New York Giants (28th) -- none of whom are particularly scary matchups for rushers. The Colts should be able to compete in each of those games, giving JT a much better chance to tote the rock in a positive game script.

Aaron Jones, Minnesota Vikings

Though Aaron Jones is coming off his third-best fantasy outing of the season (18.4 points), he again performed below expectation. Despite finishing as Week 12's RB8, Jones was the sixth-biggest underperformer by xFP.

That's been an ongoing trend for Jones as he has the fifth-biggest difference between actual and excepted fantasy points among running backs.

It's not for lack of efficiency, either. Jones has a positive RYOE/C on the year, and he's 11th among running backs in total receptions (32).

The touchdowns just haven't been there. Jones has only scored 4 total touchdowns this season despite PFF slotting him for 10.1 expected scores based on usage. He's still fantasy's RB16 on the year, but Jones would be the overall RB5 if he'd scored at expectation.

That's partly because the Minnesota Vikings have a 70% passing touchdown rate this season, fourth highest in football. But their overall pass rate is just 54%, just 22nd. They've still fed Jones 4 red zone touches a game; he just hasn't found the end zone as much as you'd expect.

Still, touchdown regression is real, and it should be coming for Aaron Jones. Though he may not be a traditional buy-low, Jones is someone you could be able to acquire for less than the value he'll output the rest of the season.

That's especially true given their upcoming schedule. According to PFF, Minnesota has the easiest remaining schedule for running backs. They draw the Arizona Cardinals (19th in fantasy points allowed to RBs) and Atlanta Falcons (10th) to close out the regular season, followed by dates with the Chicago Bears (21st), Seattle Seahawks (18th), and Green Bay Packers (15th) in the fantasy playoffs.

Rhamondre Stevenson, New England Patriots

Rhamondre Stevenson made an appearance on this piece ahead of last week only to see his lowest snap rate (39.7%) of the season en route to a measly 3.3 fantasy points.

Even so, Stevenson has flashed real upside in spite of the New England Patriots' offensive inconsistencies. Stevenson's currently the RB22 overall, but he's finished as a top-10 back five separate weeks. Purely looking at utilization, Stevenson is the RB10 by xFP.

Now, obviously Rhamondre hasn't lived up to that standing. But he's flashed legit RB1 upside -- and that's not something you can easily acquire this late into the year.

It's certainly fair to be concerned about Stevenson after last week's dud, but you wouldn't be buying low if he played every snap. And while his role was worse even taking into account the blowout, Stevenson did play 58% of snaps in the first half before things got completely out of hand.

Though the Pats do still have their bye week waiting in Week 14, Stevenson is otherwise set up for a strong finish to the year. They get the Colts (26th in fantasy points allowed to RBs) next week, but the real fun starts in the fantasy playoffs -- during which New England boasts' the easiest running back schedule, per PFF. They do have to face the Los Angeles Chargers (2nd) in Week 17, but Weeks 15 and 16 are true cakewalks against the Cardinals (19th) and Buffalo Bills (29th).


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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