Fantasy Football: 4 Bold Predictions for Week 14
There's nothing quite like the NFL.
Football is one of the most intense, exciting sports on the planet. The source of the now-ubiquitous saying "Any Given Sunday," the NFL is a place where even struggling teams have a chance to topple the best in the league. Anything can happen when you play only 17 regular season games a year.
That uncertainty is a huge driver behind the excitement the NFL generates each and every season. What's more fun than watching something totally unexpected unfold before your eyes?
That's why, this year, we'll be bringing you some bold predictions to watch for in each week the 2024 NFL season.
All NFL odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published.
NFL Bold Predictions for Week 14
Jameis Winston Stays Hot With Top-10 Fantasy Finish
Whether for good or bad, Jameis Winston is one of the most entertaining players in the NFL. It's refreshing to finally see him take over the reins of an offense as he has certainly provided more upside than Deshaun Watson, who finished with -0.27 expected points added per drop back (EPA/db) -- via NFL Next Gen Stats.
Winston has turned in some exceptional games for the Cleveland Browns, including his 497-yard and four-touchdown performance in Week 13. It wasn't perfect, though, as he threw three interceptions along with -0.12 EPA/db. His numbers were still good enough for 36.0 fantasy points, finishing as QB1 of the week.
Despite Winston averaging 22.8 fantasy points per game over five outings as the starter, our NFL DFS projections have him as this week's QB22. He's produced three top-10 weekly finishes over five contests. His 14.6 projected FanDuel points is likely influenced by his tough matchup against the Pittsburgh Steelers, who are in the top eight of all three major defensive schedule-adjusted rankings.
However, the Browns are 6.5-point 'dogs this weekend. That suggests a negative game script where Winston could have plenty of passing attempts, and this is on a Cleveland team that already sports the second-highest pass-play rate in the league.
Winston just torched the Denver Broncos -- whose D is in the top three of all three defensive adjusted rankings. The hot streak could keep up on Sunday, and I like Winston's chances considering the opportunity for a negative game script.
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine Surpasses Fantasy Projection By 20+ Spots
One of the breakout wide receivers over the last few weeks in fantasy football has been Nick Westbrook-Ikhine of the Tennessee Titans. He's produced at least a top-21 weekly finish in four of the last five while averaging 13.6 FanDuel points per game during the stretch, but there's still a lot of uncertainty surrounding his stock.
The emerging wideout is on a team that logs only 18.4 points per game (fifth-fewest) and 4.9 yards per play (seventh-fewest) while ranking as the second-worst adjusted offense. Westbrook-Ikhine has only 20 receptions for the year but has eight touchdowns; that screams negative regression.
However, the Titans get a good matchup against the Jacksonville Jaguars (the worst adjusted defense) in Week 14. Tennessee is facing the worst adjusted pass defense, and Will Levis carries 0.00 EPA/db since returning as the starter in Week 10. This is a major improvement compared to Levis' -0.42 EPA/db over his first five appearances.
Considering the bad defense on tap, Westbrook-Ikhine could find the end zone once again, and his 28.6% red zone target share since Week 9 yields confidence. He's also averaging 32.3 yards per catch over the past three games while the Jags have the worst mark in yards allowed per deep target.
Westbrook-Ikhine is tied for a team-high 21.3% target share since Week 11 and comes off a season-high eight targets. He's WR44 in our projections; look for Westbrook-Ikhine to provide huge value in DFS lineups after scoring eight touchdowns over his previous eight appearances.
George Kittle Doesn't Crack the Top 10 Tight Ends
Following top-10 weekly finishes in all nine of his showings in 2024, George Kittle had his worst fantasy game by a mile in Week 13, finishing with only one catch for seven yards (1.2 FanDuel points). This put him at TE49 for the week.
The Buffalo Bills, who allow the 10th-fewest FanDuel points per game to tight ends, proved to be a frustrating defense for Kittle, and the weather didn't help. His matchup is a tad better this week against the Chicago Bears as they give up the 18th-fewest FanDuel points per game to tight ends. The overall unit is the 12th-best adjusted defense and 6th-best adjusted pass defense; that's around the same ballpark as the Bills, who have the seventh-best adjusted defense and ninth-best pass defense.
Brock Purdy returned from injury last week and put forth a dud with -0.51 EPA/db. This entire San Francisco 49ers' offense is becoming a fade. Christian McCaffrey (knee) is out for the season, and Jordan Mason is on injured reserve due to an ankle injury. Even the San Fran run game has huge concerns, and against another exceptional pass defense, the 49ers' offense could be in trouble yet again.
With that said, I'm fading Kittle this week by taking him to finish outside the top 10 tight ends. That'd be a pretty big disappointment as he is the TE2 in our projections.
Breece Hall Falls Under 45 Rushing Yards
A knee injury popped up for Breece Hall ahead of Week 13, leading to him not practicing one day while being a limited and full participant on Thursday and Friday, respectively, last week. After logging at least a 74% snap rate for seven straight games, Hall's snap share dipped to 62% in Week 13's contest.
The injury has seemed to carry over to practice this week as Hall was absent from Wednesday's session. After totaling 60 rushing yards on 12 carries (5.0 yards per carry) against a bottom-10 adjusted rush defense in Week 13, Hall could be in store for a deflating outing.
The Miami Dolphins are up next, and they sport the seventh-best adjusted rush defense while sitting in the top half of yards allowed per rushing attempt and rushing yards allowed per contest. Similar to last week, we can probably expect Hall's snap share to stay down.
The New York Jets already hold the 5th-lowest rush play rate along with the 10th-fewest yards per rushing attempt. New York is a 5.5-point 'dog against the Fins, presenting a potential negative game script.
I'm already not a fan of Hall's 71.8-rushing yard projection, per our model. Considering the matchup and nagging injury, the Jets' star halfback seems poised to finish far under this mark.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.