Fantasy Football: 4 Bold Predictions for Week 13
There's nothing quite like the NFL.
Football is one of the most intense, exciting sports on the planet. The source of the now-ubiquitous saying "Any Given Sunday," the NFL is a place where even struggling teams have a chance to topple the best in the league. Anything can happen when you play only 17 regular season games a year.
That uncertainty is a huge driver behind the excitement the NFL generates each and every season. What's more fun than watching something totally unexpected unfold before your eyes?
That's why, this year, we'll be bringing you some bold predictions to watch for in each week the 2024 NFL season.
All NFL odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published.
NFL Bold Predictions for Week 13
Tyrone Tracy Jr. Totals 100+ Rushing Yards
Week 12 wasn't kind to Tyrone Tracy Jr. as he totaled only nine carries and a 41% snap share in a negative game script in the 30-7 loss against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. His low snap rate was partially caused by his fumble too.
But when Tracy gets his touches, he usually feasts.
For example, the New York Giants were in closely contested games from Week 8 to Week 10. In these games, Tracy averaged 18.0 rushing attempts per contest while logging 104.7 rushing yards per game. Keep in mind, Devin Singletary was active for all of these games. If the Giants have the luxury of running the ball, Tracy usually logs big numbers thanks to his 5.1 yards per rushing attempt and 0.02 rushing yards over expectation per carry (RYOE/C) -- per NFL Next Gen Stats.
The Giants are 3.5-point underdogs on Thanksgiving against the Dallas Cowboys, suggesting this one will stay close. New York shouldn't have second thoughts about running the rock as Dallas carries the worst schedule-adjusted rush defense while giving up 4.8 yards per carry (fifth-most) and 150.5 rushing yards per game (second-most).
Tyrone Tracy Jr - Rushing Yds
Tracy has a 63.5-yard rushing prop on Turkey Day, and I like the over there. However, I expect him to go way over this mark. Our NFL DFS projections have the rookie tailback recording 71.3 rushing yards on 16.0 carries. This also implies a busier day than what the market says as his rushing attempts prop is 14.5.
Considering Tracy has reached at least 100 rushing yards in two of the last three games where he's had at least 15 carries, him reaching 100-plus yards (+400) is doable. Across the entire season, Tracy has reached 100 rushing yards in three of five outings with at least 15 rushing attempts.
Jahmyr Gibbs Scores 2+ Touchdowns
Jahmyr Gibbs enjoyed his highest snap rate of the season last week while logging 24 touches for 99 scrimmage yards and two touchdowns. This was mostly due to David Montgomery sustaining a shoulder injury during the contest. While Monty is expected to suit up on Thursday, a decreased workload could be in the picture for him -- especially considering the short week.
With that said, another busy game should be ahead for Gibbs. The Detroit Lions probably won't pull any punches about running the ball as the Chicago Bears carry the 7th-best adjusted pass defense compared to the 16th-worst adjusted rush defense while Chicago's opponents average 4.8 yards per rushing attempt (seventh-most).
Two touchdowns is certainly lofty as seen in Gibbs' +330 line. However, he's had a multi-touchdown performance in 3 of 11 games. That's not that bad of a percentage. We know he's an exceptional receiver, as well; there's always a chance Gibbs finds the end zone on a catch, which has some hope thanks to his 14.0% red zone target share.
This is a backfield with two running backs who are at 10+ rushing touchdowns. If Montgomery gets less work, this gives Gibbs more scoring opportunities. There should be plenty of points ahead for Detroit's offense with its 29.5-point team total. Plus, a positive game script should keep the run game at the forefront as the Lions are favored by 10.5 points.
Brock Bowers Logs 20+ FanDuel Points
Since the Las Vegas Raiders came off their bye, they've been force-feeding the ball to Brock Bowers -- who's logging 13.0 targets per game with a 31.0% target share over the last two games. Friday is a juicy matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs, who give up the fourth-most FanDuel points per game to tight ends.
This goes beyond just struggles versus tight ends as the Chiefs have the 15th-worst schedule-adjusted pass defense. Kansas City just gave up 263 passing yards and 7.5 yards per passing attempt to Bryce Young last week, and the Carolina Panthers hold the worst adjusted pass offense in the league.
Las Vegas doesn't feature a much better passing game as they are the seventh-worst adjusted unit. Plus, Gardner Minshew is out for the season with a broken collarbone. Aidan O'Connell seems on track to return from his thumb injury after being a full participant at practice on Tuesday. O'Connell's been the more efficient QB, carrying -0.06 expected points added per drop back, compared to Minshew's -0.17.
With that said, there's still an opportunity for the Raiders' passing game to have success, and Vegas being 12.5-point 'dogs helps due to the potential for a negative game script.
Brock Bowers - Receiving Yds
Considering the work Bowers has received, another huge game seems imminent. He produced 24.8 FanDuel points in Week 11. After catching only 4 of 10 targets a week ago, a more efficient QB should get Bowers back on track. Holding a 31.0% target share and 26.7% red zone target share as a tight end over the last two weeks screams success.
Bowers is already tied for the most projected FanDuel points among tight ends this week (11.0). He holds a 61.5-yard receiving prop paired with +250 odds to score a touchdown. A spike week is in the cards on Black Friday.
Christian McCaffrey Sits Outside Top 20 RBs
Across all games in Week 13, Christian McCaffrey is projected with the fourth-most FanDuel points (18.1). But CMC has averaged only 10.9 FanDuel points per game over his first three games back from injury. It's not like his workload is gone as he's averaged 14.3 carries and 5.3 targets per game in that span.
There are simply efficiency issues surrounding McCaffrey thus far as he's logged -0.77 RYOE/C (oof). He's still kept it up as a receiver, sporting a 6.0% catch rate over expectation (CROE) and 11.5 receiving yards over expectation (RecYOE) per game. Still, when most of CMC's work comes from carries, this is a clear concern.
Sunday's opponent -- the Buffalo Bills -- features the 7th-best adjusted defense, ranking 11th against both the pass and run. There's been some hype about a potential snowstorm rocking Buffalo, although Sunday looks clear as of now. It's definitely something to watch as weather forecasts can change in the blink of an eye; the more snow, the more this total will probably come down.
Regardless, the Bills are 6.5-point favorites, implying a potential negative game script for San Fran. This offense has been up and down with 19.6 points per game over the last five. The Niners mustered up only 10 points in Week 12 as Brock Purdy (shoulder) and offensive tackle Trent Williams (ankle) were absent. If either player is out again in Week 13, this takes away even more fantasy value from McCaffrey, and part of his early fantasy woes have been thanks to a goose egg in the touchdown department.
Across the board, the 49ers are mostly a team to fade if Purdy sits; McCaffrey is included in that mix due to his early inefficiencies as a rusher. After finishing as RB31 last week, another disappointing finish looks imminent as I am expecting CMC to finish way below his RB4 projection.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.