3 Best NFL Player Prop Bets for Thanksgiving Day
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up in the betting market via the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook to measuring a player's potential to produce in NFL DFS on FanDuel.
Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our NFL projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guide, here are some NFL player props that look appealing for this week.
All NFL odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published.
NFL Prop Picks for Thanksgiving Day
Jameson Williams 60+ Receiving Yards (+144)
If I'm placing a bet on Jameson Williams, it will be via the alternate market. His boom-or-bust nature makes that a pretty clear call for me. With that, let's look for Jamo to come out on the right side of 60 on Thanksgiving Day.
Williams is seeing an 18.5% target share this season, but it's his team-leading 34.6% air yards share and 14.0 aDOT (average depth of target) that makes him a big-play candidate. In three games since being reinstated from suspension, Jamo's market shares are even better, including a 20.5% target share, 38.7% air yards share, and 14.6 aDOT.
At first glance, the Chicago Bears do not pose as an ideal matchup for the Detroit Lions' passing game, as the Bears check in with the league's seventh-best schedule-adjusted pass defense. However, Chicago is allowing opposing WRs to log 14.75 yards per catch, the third-most in the NFL.
We'd love to see Jamo in a one-on-one matchup, though the Bears utilize zone coverage at the seventh-highest rate. With that said, the Lions are already seeing zone defense at the third-highest clip and Williams' output has still been awesome. He's logged 60-plus yards in six out of nine games this season.
The 9.5-point spread isn't much cause for concern. Detroit is consistently pummeling teams by putting up huge numbers on offense, and Jamo is a reason they are getting there. They won their last two by 46 and 18 points, and Williams showed out for 124 and 64 yards in those contests. Plus, I have at least some faith that Caleb Williams can make this one interesting after seeing him fight to finish against NFC North foes in Week 11 and 12.
While I don't place too much emphasis on home vs. away stats for WRs, it's at the very least a fun anecdote that Jamo has logged 121, 79, 80, and 124 yards in his four home games this season thanks to a 39.1% air yards share and 3.28 yards per route run average at Ford Field. Notably, the Lions play indoors and on turf, which has aided Williams' YPRR. I'd consider laddering Jamo's yardage prop in the alt market, and 60 feels like a solid starting point.
Caleb Williams 300+ Passing + Rushing Yards (+205)
Chicago's offense has been revitalized in the two games since Thomas Brown took over for Shane Waldron at OC. The Bears posted 391 total yards and 19 points in Week 11 and 398 total yards and 27 points in Week 12. That's impressive considering both contests were played in cold weather conditions and against two of the top defenses -- the Minnesota Vikings and Green Bay Packers.
D.J. Moore, Keenan Allen, and Rome Odunze each own a 20.0% target share or higher. The parity between these three makes betting on one feel like too much of a dart throw. Instead, let's put our eggs in Caleb Williams' basket.
On the season, the Bears have thrown the ball at a 58% rate. Last week, we saw them throw at a whopping 69.9% clip. New personnel has taken over and implemented a more pass-heavy approach, allowing Williams to log 571 passing yards since the OC switch. The passing volume is primed to stick against a Lions team that forces opponents to throw the ball at a 63.5% rate (third-highest). Detroit pushes teams into come-from-behind scenarios, and thus, the pass. As 9.5-point road 'dogs, the Bears should be no exception to the rule.
Williams' rushing volume has also seen an uptick since Thomas Brown took over. He had nine carries for 70 yards in Week 11 and followed that up with six carries for 33 yards last weekend. In turn, Caleb has logged 300-plus passing + rushing yards in back-to-back weeks, going for 301 and 373.
The Lions are surrendering the most yards per carry (6.37) to opposing QBs. Yes, Detroit is also home to the best defense in the league, but Williams' total volume since the OC change is hard to deny and he could find success playing indoors.
Josh Jacobs Over 71.5 Rushing Yards (-113)
I'll happily turn a blind eye to the second game on Thursday's slate and skip right to this Miami Dolphins-Green Bay Packers showdown. Brandon Gdula's got you covered on best bets and player props for Giants at Cowboys.
This Dolphins-Packers bout is showing a 3.5-point spread and 47.5 over/under. The most reliable player on either side is none other than Josh Jacobs, and I like where we're finding his rushing prop.
Jacobs is in a world of his own in Green Bay's backfield, netting 18.4 carries per game. He's averaging 101 rushing yards across his last four contests. Jacobs has exceeded 71.5 rushing yards in 8 out of 11 games this season, as well as 7 out of 9 games alongside Jordan Love.
Josh Jacobs - Rushing Yds
The Dolphins tout a ninth-ranked schedule-adjusted rush defense, but great competition hasn't hindered Jacobs. He rushed for 95 yards against the Lions (12th-best rush D) in Week 9 and ran for 76 yards against the Houston Texans (10th) in Week 7. Earlier this season, he went for 84 against the Philadelphia Eagles (4th) and 151 versus the Indianapolis Colts (8th).
The weather forecast in Green Bay has us prepared for a cold and windy game environment, which should force both sides to turn to the ground game at a higher rate than normal. As the 3.5-point home favorites, the Packers could find themself in a positive game script, which would also aid Jacobs' rushing volume. Our NFL projections expect Jacobs to rush for 82 yards on 19 carries on Thanksgiving.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.