College Football: Best Bets and Player Props for Indiana at Ohio State
The game of the week resides in the Big Ten as the undefeated Indiana Hoosiers travel to Columbus to battle the Ohio State Buckeyes. A spot in the Big Ten Championship is on the line as Indiana currently holds the spot while Ohio State would nab it with a win and clinch with another win in Rivalry Week. This is essentially a battle to take on the Oregon Ducks in Championship Week.
Some of the juice has been taken away from this matchup with yet another must-see Big Ten game taking place at 12:00 p.m. ET on Saturday. The Buckeyes' athletic director Ross Bjork was even asked if he would push for more later kickoffs next season, which he responded with, "that's an offseason conversation." Regardless, this should be one heck of a football game.
Using the college football odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, what are the best bets between No. 5 Indiana and No. 2 Ohio State?
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Indiana at Ohio State Betting Picks
All college football odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published.
Indiana +11.5 (-105)
Before we dig too deep into our picks, it's important to address a major injury for OSU. After already losing starting left tackle Josh Simmons (knee) for the season, starting center Seth McLaughlin suffered a season-ending torn Achilles in practice this week. The Buckeyes' offensive line was already makeshift enough, moving guard Donovan Jackson to left tackle; keep in mind Jackson had never played tackle across his college career. Now, Ohio State is faced with yet another challenge, losing one of the nation's best centers.
With that said, there should be clear concerns around the Buckeyes' run game, which is in the top 40% in rush play rate and top 14% in yards per carry (5.3). Indiana has one of the best run defenses in college football, limiting opponents to 2.7 yards per rushing attempt and 78.9 rushing yards per game (both second-fewest). The Hoosiers even tout the 11th-fewest EPA allowed per rushing attempt.
Along with its run defense, IU's pass rush is pretty underrated. In fact, the unit carries Pro Football Focus' fourth-best pass rushing grade while sitting in the 81st percentile in sack rate. The Buckeyes rank 79th in pass blocking grade, and it could only get worse with another major injury on the O-line. Keep an eye on Indiana's top pass rusher Mikail Kamara (90.1 PFF player grade; 88.4 PFF pass rushing grade) in this one.
Spread
Now, let's get to where Indiana is making the headlines. The offense is logging 40.2 points per game (top 2%) and 6.4 yards per play (top 12%), but it will get its toughest test yet against the Scarlet and Gray's nasty defense (second in EPA allowed per play).
The passing game is where the Hoosiers could find success. Quarterback Kurtis Rourke has been fantastic with a 91.4 PFF player grade and 92.4 PFF passing grade, and it's still difficult to forget about OSU being torched for 10.0 yards per passing attempt by Oregon back in October.
There should still be questions about the Buckeyes' cornerbacks as David Igbinosun is DPI happy, and Denzel Burke has been extremely streaky. Adding to the problem, IU is in the top 23% of sack rate allowed while carrying the 15th-best PFF pass blocking grade; it has the ability to offset Ohio State's 14th-best pass rushing grade.
This has all been very positive on the Hoosiers, but the moneyline is too bold of a pick here. The Buckeyes are still the far more talented team. Giving up four sacks and eight tackles for loss against the Michigan Wolverines causes some concerns about Indiana's offensive line. Plus, we shouldn't completely overlook the play of Will Howard (87.8 PFF passing grade) and his talented trio of wideouts: Emeka Egbuka, Jeremiah Smith, and Carnell Tate.
With a home advantage, the Buckeyes should come out of this one ahead, but the Hoosiers are an excellent cover. Indiana is 8-2 against the spread, and look for that to continue as numberFire's game projections forecasts a 29.8-20.5 score in favor of Ohio State -- giving some value to Indiana +10.5 (+104), as well.
Indiana +7.5 1st Half Spread (-128)
Along with the Hoosiers to cover the spread, they have a good shot of covering the first half spread. Ohio State has shown the tendency to get off to some slow starts this season.
For example, OSU was down 7-0 early in the second quarter a week ago against the Northwestern Wildcats as 28-point favorites. We could also look at the Buckeyes trailing 10-0 in the first quarter against Penn State Nittany Lions in Week 10. Ohio State was scrapping by the Nebraska Cornhuskers with a 14-6 lead at half in Week 9 as 25-point favorites. Even early in October the Scarlet and Gray were up only 7-0 at half in its 35-7 win over the Iowa Hawkeyes. At this point, it's safe to say OSU fits the "second half team" narrative.
Meanwhile, Indiana has led at half in every one of its games this season. The Hoosiers have been on the end of criticism following a sluggish win over Michigan, but they still led 17-3 at half in this game.
Ultimately, there's a lot of unknown in this game as IU has yet to see a team even close to the Buckeyes' talent level. But taking the Hoosiers to cover the the first half spread feels like one of the safest possible bets for this game. One of Ohio State's clear flaws have been slow starts. When the Buckeyes have taken big leads into the half, it's been thinks to explosions in the second quarter.
OSU logs 12.9 points per game in the second quarter (fifth-most), but Indiana has the recipe to offset that thanks to 13.4 points per game in the second (third-most). The two are very similar in the first quarter, as well, with each team holding 7.3 points per contest in the first 15 minutes (tied for 32nd).
The third quarter is where the Buckeyes could really separate thanks to 12.1 points per game in the third (the most) while the Hoosiers rank 20th in the category (8.7 points). However, IU at least has the formula to keep it close in the first half.
Carnell Tate 50+ Receiving Yards (+102)
So far, we've been all over Indiana with every pick. We briefly mentioned this is the most talented team by a mile the Hoosiers will play up to this point. While Ohio State has offensive line worries, the Buckeyes' elite wide receivers are perhaps IU's biggest worry going into this one.
Indiana is 18th in EPA allowed per drop back compared to 11th against the run, but let's take a look at which passing attacks the Hoosiers have faced. It's not a great list as the Maryland Terrapins (49th) and Washington Huskies (36th) are the only top-50 teams in EPA per drop back that IU has seen. In those games, Maryland totaled 289 passing yards and Washington reached only 202 passing yards. Both squads totaled at least 7.0 yards per passing attempt, though, which is still far above the Hoosiers' 5.9 yards allowed per passing attempt for the season.
The Buckeyes carry the sixth-most EPA per drop back while totaling 9.4 yards per passing attempt (fifth-most). Targeting one of OSU's talented receivers is a great bet, especially with quarterback Will Howard touting PFF passing grades of at least 85.1 in back-to-back appearances.
Carnell Tate has made noise over the last month, logging 4.0 catches and 56.3 receiving yards per game during the four-game span. For reference, he was averaging only 3.0 receptions and 46.4 receiving yards per contest in his previous five outings. His receiving prop is 45.5 yards -- right in line with his early season averages.
His alternate line of 50+ receiving yards (+102) is worth taking for improved value. This feels very obtainable considering what he's done in recent games. As usual, Tate gets favorable matchups with most defenses shifting its focus to guarding Emeka Egbuka and Jeremiah Smith.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.
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