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NFL Expert Best Bets, Predictions, and Player Props for Week 12 on FanDuel Sportsbook

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NFL Expert Best Bets, Predictions, and Player Props for Week 12 on FanDuel Sportsbook

Each week throughout the NFL season, the staff here at FanDuel Research will bring you their three favorite bets on the board -- one side, one total, and one player prop from the NFL betting odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

They'll also share some insight into one of the picks to provide you with reasoning as to why they're on that bet.

Here's what our staff likes for this week.

Note: All odds come from the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. Betting lines and our NFL projections may change after this article is published.

NFL Expert Picks for Week 12

Austin Swaim, Senior Editor

Spread/Moneyline: Eagles -2.5 (-120)

Spread

Nov 25 1:20am UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

Total: Vikings-Bears Under 39.5 Points (-115)

Total Match Points

Under
Nov 24 6:00pm UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

The Minnesota Vikings and Chicago Bears have both struggled to score in recent weeks, and that's unlikely to turn around based on facing two of the league's top-eight defenses (according to numberFire's schedule-adjusted defensive rankings) in this one. Minnesota leads the league in pressure rate (39%), and the Bears have allowed the second-most sacks (41) in the NFL. Zoinks. Chicago has scored just 10.5 points per game in games allowing at least four sacks, and Sam Darnold's recent regression doesn't inspire hope the Vikings manage to pull away very far.

Player Prop: Geno Smith Over 255.5 Passing Yards (-114)

Geno Smith - Passing Yds

Geno Smith Over
Nov 24 9:25pm UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

Austan Kas, Senior Editor

Spread/Moneyline: 49ers +3.0 (-114)

Spread

Nov 24 9:25pm UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

Total: Ravens-Chargers Under 50.5 (-110)

Total Match Points

Under
Nov 26 1:15am UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

Player Prop: Bucky Irving Over 55.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

Bucky Irving - Rushing Yds

Bucky Irving Over
Nov 24 6:00pm UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

Irving (0.52 rushing yards over expected per attempt) has been a much better runner than Rachaad White (-0.02), and I am willing to roll the dice on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers shifting to more of a Bucky-led backfield following their bye. But even if that doesn't happen, Irving can still feast against a New York Giants defense that allows the fourth-most rushing yards per game to RBs (116.9).

Kenyatta Storin, Senior Editor

Spread/Moneyline: Panthers +10.5 (-105)

Spread

Carolina Panthers
Nov 24 6:00pm UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

This could end up looking stupid as it is a total mismatch on paper, but 10.5 points is a lot for a Kansas City Chiefs team on the road that's exceeded this margin of victory once all season. While it hasn't been against the toughest competition, the Carolina Panthers are coming off two straight wins and enter this matchup coming off their bye. numberFire's game projections predict the Chiefs winning by closer to a touchdown.

Total: Cardinals-Seahawks Over 47.5 (-110)

Total Match Points

Over
Nov 24 9:25pm UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

Player Prop: Terry McLaurin Over 59.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Terry McLaurin - Receiving Yds

Terry McLaurin Over
Nov 24 6:00pm UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

Aidan Cotter, Writer

Spread/Moneyline: Bears +3.5 (-115)

Spread

Chicago Bears
Nov 24 6:00pm UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

Total: Patriots-Dolphins Over 46.5 (-105)

Total Match Points

Over
Nov 24 6:00pm UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

Player Prop: Mike Evans Over 53.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Mike Evans - Receiving Yds

Mike Evans Over
Nov 24 6:00pm UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

Evans has a lovely individual matchup against New York’s Deonte Banks – a corner who’s allowed the 11th-most yards and third-highest passer rating when targeted, per PFF. Evans has practiced in full this week after missing the last month, so he figures to step into a massive target share for a Tampa Bay Buccaneers offense that’s lacked playmakers since Chris Godwin went down. In the lone game Evans saw more than 7 targets this season, he went for 94 yards, putting him in a nice spot to clear 53.5 yards.

Annie Nader, Writer

Spread/Moneyline: Buccaneers -5.5 (-120)

Spread

Nov 24 6:00pm UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

Total: Patriots-Dolphins Over 46.5 (-105)

Total Match Points

Over
Nov 24 6:00pm UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

Player Prop: Hunter Henry Any Time Touchdown (+300)

Any Time Touchdown Scorer
Hunter Henry

Drake Maye has tossed nine touchdown passes across five full starts and will draw a matchup against a 17th-ranked schedule-adjusted pass defense. Henry has earned a 21.7% target share and a seismic 41.2% red zone target share in those five starts from Maye, yet they’ve connected for just one score. Henry is the only WR or TE in the league who has scored only one touchdown while also logging 66-plus targets. Let’s look for him to find regression and improve upon that paltry 1.5% touchdown rate this weekend.

Riley Thomas, Writer

Spread/Moneyline: 49ers +3 (-110)

Spread

Nov 24 9:25pm UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

Total: Cowboys-Commanders Over 44.5 (-115)

Total Match Points

Over
Nov 24 6:00pm UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

Player Prop: Josh Downs 60-Plus Receiving Yards (+104)

Josh Downs - Alt Receiving Yds
Josh Downs 60+ Yards

Downs is averaging 81.3 receiving yards per game over his last four games. When Anthony Richardson has started in a full game, Downs is second on the team with a 22.2% target share. This week’s opponent – the Detroit Lions – give up the sixth-most passing yards per game (often due to big leads). Detroit could carry another big lead as 7.5-point favorites, putting the Indianapolis Colts in a negative game script. The Lions give up the fourth-fewest yards per deep target, though, which should take away from the production of Michael Pittman Jr. and Alec Pierce. For a receiver who carries an average depth of target of only 8.5 yards, Downs should get plenty of work underneath.

Skyler Carlin, Writer

Spread/Moneyline: Buccaneers -5.5 (-120)

Spread

Nov 24 6:00pm UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

Total: Cowboys-Commanders Over 44.5 (-115)

Total Match Points

Over
Nov 24 6:00pm UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

Player Prop: Jaylen Waddle Over 38.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Jaylen Waddle - Receiving Yds

Jaylen Waddle Over
Nov 24 6:00pm UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

I believe this is the week Waddle finally has a noteworthy performance this season as the New England Patriots are giving up the sixth-most receiving yards (1,745), third-highest target rate (21.6%), and third-most yards per route run (1.81) to WRs, per NextGenStats. It also helps that Tua Tagovailoa should be operating from a clean pocket often on Sunday with New England ranking 24th in pressure rate (31.5%) and 25th in defensive passing success rate (47.6%).

Jim Sannes, Managing Editor

Spread/Moneyline: Buccaneers -5.5 (-120)

Spread

Nov 24 6:00pm UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

Total: Commanders' Alt Team Total Over 30.5 (+136)

Commanders Alternate Total

Over (30.5)
Nov 24 6:00pm UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

The Commanders have faced a top-10 defense in three of their past four games; the Dallas Cowboys are -- obviously -- not a top-10 unit this year. I'm expecting the offense to get back rolling off a mini bye whereas the Cowboys are in a treacherous stretch of three games in 11 days.

Player Prop: Brian Robinson 80-Plus Rushing Yards (+124)

Brian Robinson Jr. - Alt Rushing Yds
Brian Robinson Jr. 80+ Yards


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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