Can Garrett Nussmeier Lead LSU to the College Football Playoff in 2025?

In December 2021, the college football world received a shocker. Brian Kelly exited a Notre Dame Fighting Irish job where he was a multi-time playoff participant to head up the LSU Tigers in an effort to secure SEC regulations and resources.

Despite some creative tactics to try and prove otherwise, LSU hasn't exactly gotten what they paid for with Kelly. In fact, his regular season win total dropped from 10 (and an SEC Championship appearance) in 2022 to 9 wins in 2023 to 8 wins in 2024. The 2023 team doesn't exactly paint an ideal picture of maximizing talent when Jayden Daniels, Malik Nabers, Brian Thomas Jr., and Mason Taylor didn't vie for a conference title.

Once again, Kelly has all he could ask for again at the quarterback position. Projected first-round pick Garrett Nussmeier is coming off a strong season that has him a top-five contender in both 2025 Heisman Trophy odds and odds to be the first overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft.

Can LSU finally put the pieces together to make a real statement this season, or will another disappointing season push their accomplished coach even closer to the door?

Is the Hype Behind Garrett Nussmeier Real?

Once lower on Baker Mayfield and Bryce Young than consensus, it's tough for me to get as enthused about a shorter pocket passer like Nussmeier as I was Cade Klubnik or John Mateer -- especially at the collegiate level.

Let's start with the good, which is Nussmeier's top-notch pedigree and makeup. Unheard of in the transfer portal era, he's stayed put at LSU since 2021 behind Max Johnson and Jayden Daniels, waiting his turn and developing at a program that's produced several NFL quarterbacks.

Nussmeier's father, Doug, has been an offensive coach in the NFL since 2018. He's currently the offensive coordinator with the New Orleans Saints, so it's kind of hard to process truly how much of the QB's life must've revolved around football. That's a lot of mental reps and tips over the course of decades.

When given the keys in 2024, the overall results weren't bad. Posting an 80.0 QBR, he completed 64.2% of his throws and crested the 4,000-passing-yard mark (4,052) with 29 touchdowns. Posting -38 rushing yards in 2024, Nussmeier cannot control the flow of the game with his legs, though.

As evidenced by 12 interceptions and 16 sacks, there were also plenty of mistakes. He came completely undone in a game against the Texas A&M Aggies where LSU had a 17-7 halftime lead, tossing a pair of picks that led to a 38-23 loss.

That Texas A&M game was a common theme for Nussmeier. He carved up weak pass defenses, including shredding a shorthanded Baylor Bears squad in the Texas Bowl for 334 yards. Dividing his season between top-60 FBS defenses in passing yards per attempt allowed (YPA) and other weaker units, the microscope isn't flattering:

Why was LSU losing some of the "big games" on their schedule? Well, Nussmeier was turning the ball over and not completing passes at nearly the rate we saw against the cupcakes.

The schedule couldn't have been more favorable for him in 2024 with eight teams that were either in the bottom 50 across FBS in passing YPA allowed or an FCS school. My concern as an evaluator is that only five top-60 schools from last year are on Nussmeier's docket in 2025. It's much of the same.

Garrett could have another great season because his strength of schedule is favorable again, but there are marquee matchups, including visits to the Clemson Tigers, Mississippi Rebels, Alabama Crimson Tide, and Oklahoma Sooners, where he will have to step up against a quality opponent and play well in order for the Tigers to not drop all four games and, ostensibly, erase their playoff hopes.

LSU Tigers 2025 Season Preview

In addition to those four difficult road games, LSU will host the South Carolina Gamecocks and Texas A&M Aggies in Death Valley. It's a usual brute of an SEC schedule.

That will tell us a ton about Nussmeier and Kelly -- especially since the cupboard is pretty darn full.

It was an uncharacteristic year in 2024 for Louisiana State wideouts with the late Kyren Lacy departing as their one NFL Draft product before the tragedy. The Tigers are turning to transfers from other SEC schools, Barion Brown and Nic Anderson, to shore up the position this year. Anderson hauled in 798 yards and 10 scores for the Sooners in 2023 before a season-long injury, and Brown had 93 catches in two seasons for the Kentucky Wildcats before the speedster's disastrous 29-catch season as Dane Key emerged for UK.

LSU was eighth in pass rate last year (59.2%), and no additions to the running back room seem to profile for a pass-happy team again in 2025.

However, the Tigers are hoping to support Nussmeier a bit better than they did a year ago. For a third straight offseason, Kelly dipped into the transfer portal heavily to add nine upperclassmen to a defense that was 80th in yards per play allowed (5.7) last season. LSU hasn't had a defense better than 43rd in that department (5.2 YPP allowed in 2022) under Kelly, and that side of the ball unraveled the Daniels-Nabers-BTJ squad, as well.

Is there a ceiling for this team? Absolutely. At worst, Nussmeier is an NFL Draft prospect with two athletic specimens at wide receiver, so this team will score points -- especially against the weaker half of its schedule.

But, both wideouts are coming off poor or incomplete seasons, so this squad might actually be weak in that area. The quarterback's own performance concerns against better opponents coincide with the fact that Kelly is just 4-7 in ranked matchups at the school. They've given me no reason to hope that they'll now win enough of these games against six potential ranked opponents to make the College Football Playoff.

They're -168 to not make the CFP on the basis of needing to probably go at least 3-3 in these matchups to sneak into at-large bid. That's also assuming they don't slip up anywhere else, which was not uncommon for Kelly at Notre Dame.

That line gives a bit more forgiveness that the Tigers do win nine games and still get excluded from the dance. A 9-3 team didn't make it last year, but letting in 10-win alternatives from weaker conferences didn't exactly work well. I could see a 9-3 SEC squad sneaking into the playoff this year, but Nussmeier and Kelly haven't given me any hope to believe it's them.

If there is a silver lining for the Nussmeier family, it's that his dad's Saints are tied for the lowest NFL win total odds (4.5) this year. If things don't work out with Tyler Shough and his father does enough to stay gainfully employed, Garrett could still be the top choice for the local New Orleans team that might not get to select Arch Manning if he returns to school in 2026.

He's currently QB2 in FanDuel's odds to be the top pick in 2026, and he's the QB2 behind Klubnik in the early 2026 prospect rankings of The Ringer's Todd McShay.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.