Breakouts or Busts? 5 Buzzy Fantasy Football Players Who Could Disappoint

This is that time of year where you start to hear the echoes.

Sites like ours come out of hibernation to spray a fire hose of fantasy football content and players worth targeting. Players that can win leagues. Players that are this year's Bucky Irving or Puka Nacua.

I've got unfortunate news. They're not all correct.

Last year, Ja'Lynn Polk was a late-round "sleeper" from training camp hype that snored through the entire season. Zamir White gave you 3.3 fantasy points per game (FPPG) from the fifth round. Dozens of other examples in recent years exist.

Here are five guys that I think managers could buy the hype on and look back to deeply regret clicking the button.

Note: A player's ADP data comes from FantasyPros' half-PPR data. The basis for rounds used in this piece is from 12-player leagues.

Fantasy Football Hype Trains to Avoid in 2025

Chase Brown, RB, Cincinnati Bengals

ADP: 22.7 (RB11)

Chase Brown doesn't have close to the amount of Zamir White's red flags, but it's also why his ADP is higher. I think it's another situation where we're drafting a player's opportunity over his talent and surroundings, though.

Don't get me wrong; Brown dominated to post 18.3 FPPG while playing 84.9% of the Bengals' snaps after Zack Moss' Week 8 injury last season. He was a featured back and a league-winner. However, there are issues with asking for a repeat.

Brown posted -0.09 expected points added per carry (EPA/c) in this time on the ground, and he suffered a Week 17 injury that, while you could chalk up to a fluke, should be a concern for a 5'9" former fifth-round pick playing Saquon Barkley's role. We've see Christian McCaffrey struggle with health, too.

There's also a bit of fragility in Cincinnati's operation. At full mast, the Bengals are one of the best offenses in the league, but that's what they got from Joe Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase last year. What if one gets hurt and the offense tanks? This is Pro Football Focus (PFF)'s 31st-ranked offensive line as a foundation.

Drafting Brown as an RB1 seems like counting the perfect storm to hit twice. Don't forget that White closed 2023 with 14.1 FPPG after Josh Jacobs' injury as an every-down player, so be wary of going all-in on a small sample.

Tetairoa McMillan, WR, Carolina Panthers

ADP: 62.3 (WR27)

Frankly, I'm playing a dicey game with Tetairoa McMillan. He's got the physical ability and talent to burn the stance I've taken against him since April's draft.

McMillan ended up becoming the 8th overall pick for a Panthers team that could use a WR1, and the projected target volume is Tet's undeniable selling point in redraft leagues. Is that not an identical case that could have been made for Xavier Legette, drafted by the same group of people, in 2024's first round?

I've got qualms with McMillan's prospect profile that showed up on tape. Against the four best pass defenses in the Big 12, McMillan didn't break 80 receiving yards. In fact, you can attribute 50.6% of Tet's total yardage last year to three games against teams ranked 108th or worse in FBS passing yards per attempt (YPA) allowed.

Heading to a spot with Legette, Adam Thielen, and Jalen Coker in the mix for a quarterback situation that's a little unnerving, I don't think McMillan's target volume nor quality will be what this WR27 ADP suggests. His five preseason targets have gone for one stellar highlight catch, one interception, and two drops. That was the tape.

A hamstring injury in recent days might save managers who, otherwise, would have pulled the trigger here.

Colston Loveland, TE, Chicago Bears

ADP: 117.0 (TE12)

Both rookie first-round tight ends are getting enough steam to be drafted as TE1s. In theory, it checks out after consecutive rookies were the TE1 overall in total points.

I love Tyler Warren, who was my 6th-ranked overall player in the 2025 class. Colston Loveland? Not so much. At 58th, Loveland was arguably my lowest prospect compared to consensus. However, my cases against him are even worse for current redraft leagues than dynasty formats or his future as an NFL pro.

At just 21 years old, Loveland is an unfinished product. You see the athleticism he has to make sudden moves and break off the line, and it's exciting. However, Loveland was just 22nd in FBS in yards after catch per reception (5.2 YAC/R; min. 50 targets) at the collegiate level, and YAC is a great indicator of a tight end's ability for upside in fantasy football.

Combined with a 50.1 run-blocking grade at PFF last year, I've got substantial concerns that he'll be able to stay on the field and earn targets in an offense also featuring D.J. Moore, Rome Odunze, and Luther Burden III. We're also not entirely sure how many guys Caleb Williams can reliably support at once.

If Dalton Kincaid and Michael Mayer have failed to make any sort of NFL imprint, a developing Loveland is no slam dunk, either.

J.J. McCarthy, QB, Minnesota Vikings

ADP: 139.0 (QB19)

You know what they say about assuming. There's a lot of assumptions about J.J. McCarthy because of where he's playing.

McCarthy isn't particularly relevant as a backup QB in most standard leagues, but he's a popular QB2 in superflex formats after Kevin O'Connell just turned Sam Darnold into the QB11 in FPPG (11.8). How could the No. 6 overall pick in last year's draft be any worse?

Well, this is a giant adjustment from the last time we saw JJM play competitive football. He's going from the Michigan Wolverines' 117th-ranked pass rate (40.4%) in 2023 to a Vikings squad that ranked third in pass rate over expectation (+3.9% PROE) last year.

Though not short on weaponry in Minnesota, it'll be up to McCarthy to be an efficient pocket passer out of the gate when he topped out at just 306 rushing yards in a season at UM. Especially coming off a torn ACL, there isn't a Jayden Daniels ceiling to make a splash with his legs right away.

I prefer Trevor Lawrence, Tua Tagovailoa, and Michael Penix Jr. in this area of the draft with a bit more certainty as to what I'm getting.

Jacory Croskey-Merritt, RB, Washington Commanders

ADP: 139.3 (RB37)

You just knew I'd talk "Bill" here.

Jacory Croskey-Merritt is quickly approaching a Mount Rushmore of fantasy football hype trains somewhere next to Josh Gordon. The seventh-round pick's story is pretty prevalent now as his 2024 collegiate season with the Arizona Wildcats consisted of just one (stellar) game before NCAA eligibility issues ended his year.

An older rookie at 24, he's been a star at Commanders training camp, prompting the team to wave goodbye to Brian Robinson last week. Resting JCM in last week's preseason finale is also a pretty good sign that he'll see work in D.C. this year.

The problem is there's a very defined ceiling even if Croskey-Merritt crushes it between the 20s. He caught just 40 total passes in five collegiate seasons, and Austin Ekeler is one of the best pass-catching backs of this era. Chris Rodriguez Jr. is a 224-pound bruiser built for the goal line.

Washington split their backfield last year, and it appears they're morphing this into to a Buffalo Bills sort of setup where "everyone eats". That's not ideal for fantasy.

If Croskey-Merritt's actual current ADP was this one listed, he'd be a fine value. However, now going as soon as the fifth or sixth round in drafts, the hype has squeezed every morsel of upside out of what Bill can realistically produce.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.