Best Bets for Fall Stars Saturday at Keeneland, 10/4/2025

Key takeaways:

• Fall Stars Saturday opens the Keeneland fall meet race day with five graded stakes, three Breeders’ Cup preps, and deep, competitive fields across the Lexington, Kentucky card.
• Long Neck Paula owns the best early speed, draws well, and can wire the TCA second off the layoff for Wesley Ward.
• Special Wan is sharp second off the break, thrives at a mile, and fits perfectly if she draws into the First Lady.
• Howard Wolowitz stretches out with pedigree and pace versatility, offering value in his first try at a mile.

The eyes of the racing world turn to the heart of horse country, central Kentucky, as the Keeneland fall meet opens Friday, October 3. The most exciting race day of the fall meet in Lexington is Saturday, October 4—a card that features five graded stakes races among its full and competitive fields all day long.

Three of Saturday’s races offer automatic bids to the Breeders’ Cup. The Coolmore Turf Mile (G1) qualifies its winner for the Breeders’ Cup Mile, Breeders’ Futurity (G1) earns its winner a trip to the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, and a bid to the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint is at stake in the Thoroughbred Club of America (G2). The card also features the First Lady (G1) for filly and mare turf milers as well as the Woodford (G2) for turf sprinters; though neither of those is a Win and You’re In, both races perennially make an impact on the Breeders’ Cup picture.

The 11-race card features large and classy fields all day long, and the action gets underway at 1:00 p.m. EDT. You can watch and wager all day, as well as stay on top of the latest race meet news about the horses, through FanDuel TV and FanDuel Racing.

An informed bettor is a smart bettor, so make sure to check scratches and changes before placing your bets. Saturday is expected to be warm and clear, but forecasts can always change. Scratches can also happen for reasons other than weather, so make sure to check whether any late changes affect the pace or class makeup of the races you plan to wager on.

These are the best bets for the Fall Stars Saturday race day experience on Saturday at Keeneland:

Best Bets for Fall Stars Saturday at Keeneland

Race 7 - Thoroughbred Club of America (G2), six furlongs on the dirt - Long Neck Paula, Zeitlos

FanDuel odds: 7-2 and 9-2

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Though the Thoroughbred Club of America isn’t the biggest field of the day, it’s an excellent betting opportunity because there’s a heavy favorite who is worth betting against. Vahva is a classy horse, and should be live next month in the seven-furlong Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint—but this is a six-furlong prep, and there are better candidates for this spot.

The one they’re going to have to catch is Long Neck Paula (7-2). Though she is a three-year-old facing older for the first time, a move forward second off the layoff puts her right in the mix. She is trained by Wesley Ward, who always has his barn ready to roll at Keeneland, and she has run well in two previous starts at Keeneland. And, more than anything, she stands to get the best of it from a pace perspective. She has the best early speed in the race, and the Keeneland dirt often plays nicely for speed, especially inside speed, on major race days. Long Neck Paula will set the early fractions, and the odds are good that she keeps on going.

Zeitlos (9-2) comes into the race after a couple of tries on the lawn that were fine, but not as good as her dirt sprint races. Now, she gets back to her best game: six furlongs on the dirt, a trip over which she is an impressive seven-for-10 lifetime. She rallied into a sharp pace to win this race last year, and even when the pace isn’t quite as rollicking as it was in the 2024 Thoroughbred Club of America, she can sit midpack as opposed to the deeper closing spot and still get up, like she did when she won the Skipat last year. The muddled form should ensure a price, especially with so much betting action likely to fall on Vahva, but the fact that she is getting back to her best kind of game makes her tough.

Race 8 - First Lady (G1), one mile on the turf - Special Wan, Segesta

FanDuel odds: 7-2 and 5-1

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The priority rules for this race could clearly be improved, because the best horse in the field is relegated to the also-eligible list. Special Wan (7-2) has won two of her last three starts, including the Honey Fox (G3) three back and the Kentucky Downs Ladies Turf (G3) last out, both at a mile. She was a less impressive third in the Just a Game (G1) in between, but she caught yielding ground that day and gets better ground this time. She is tactical enough to track the pace or rally from midfield, a versatility that should help her handle this outside gate. It’s also a good sign that she returns just a month after her last race, since it will allow her to move forward second off a freshening, a common pattern for Brendan Walsh trainees. Her biggest challenge is going to be…actually getting into the field. But, if she does, casual players who sleep on the alsos may make her an overlay given her form and class advantage.

Chad Brown has won this race seven times in a row and has two chances to make it eight. Dynamic Pricing has a Grade 1 win and will probably be the shorter price of the two, but give the longer look to Segesta (5-1). She missed by only half a length to Special Wan last out in the Kentucky Downs Ladies Turf, a testament to her current fitness and form. Though she was well beaten by Dynamic Pricing when they faced off in the Just a Game three back, that was her only try over rain-affected ground. She gets better footing this time. She is a still-improving four-year-old with pace versatility and a smart maiden win over course and distance last year, and she gets the services of big-race rider Flavien Prat. All in all, there’s a lot to like about the “other” Chad Brown here.

Race 10 - Coolmore Turf Mile (G1), one mile on the turf - Howard Wolowitz, Diego Velazquez

FanDuel odds: 6-1 and 7-2

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Howard Wolowitz (6-1) is trying something new here: he is a Grade 1-winning sprinter, but he has yet to stretch out past seven furlongs. Even so, his top-level sprint win came at 6 ½ furlongs over the demanding Kentucky Downs course, a trip that tends to play well for milers. Sire Munnings is best known for extended sprint types, but his foals can stretch out with enough stamina underneath, and he is out of an Uncle Mo mare with some two-turn class in the female family. In terms of pace, his versatility appeals; he has been able to win from close to the pace or a few lengths back, a positive with a few in the field who like to send to the front. Furthermore, he comes in second off a long spring-summer layoff—his first race back was a good second in a tough turf sprint at Kentucky Downs, and he should move forward second-up. In short, we will find out Saturday whether Howard Wolowitz is a miler, but with all these positive points, he’s worth a gamble at a square price.

Diego Velazquez (7-2) is Aidan O’Brien’s newest globetrotter. He may not have the signature victory against the very best European turf milers, but especially after his Group 1 breakthrough in the Prix Jacques Le Marois (G1) at Deauville last out, he may not be too far off right now. That race has been franked, as well, by the fact that second-place Notable Speech came back to win the Woodbine Mile (G1) in his next start. That win came over soft turf, which Diego Velazquez won’t get in this spot, but no worries—he has been effective on good ground as well, meaning he should handle Keeneland just fine on Saturday. With tactical speed, consistent form (when run at the right level), and in-form rider Frankie Dettori in the saddle, Diego Velazquez can paint another masterpiece.

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