2025 Breeders' Futurity Stakes Preview

Key takeaways:

• The Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity (G1) is Keeneland’s premier juvenile test, offering Kentucky Derby points and a Breeders’ Cup Juvenile berth.
• Recent winners like Forte and Essential Quality parlayed this race into championship honors at season’s end.
• Ewing brings blazing early speed, draws perfectly outside, and should take them a long way on a speed-favoring track.
• Ted Noffey is undefeated, exits a dominant Hopeful win, and looms large if he handles two turns for the first time.
• Big Dom was sharp on debut, gets Irad Ortiz, and owns the pedigree to stretch out and surprise at a price.

The most prestigious race for two-year-olds at Keeneland happens Saturday, October 4, as the nation’s top juveniles line up for the $650,000 Breeders’ Futurity (G1). The 1 1/16-mile dirt race, one of the earliest major two-turn tests for young horses, offers both a Win and You’re in berth to the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies as well as 10-5-3-2-1 qualification points for next spring’s Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs..

A field of seven lines up at the starting gate. All eyes will be on emphatic Hopeful (G1) winner Ted Noffey, who tries two turns for the first time after a pair of emphatic wins over extended one-turn trips at Saratoga over the summer. Saratoga Special (G2) winner Ewing, Iroquois (G3) winner Spice Runner, and Proud Man winner Diciassette all bring stakes-level credentials as well, and Bob Baffert trainee Litmus Test ships east to try to rebound from a fourth-place effort in the Del Mar Futurity (G1) last out.

Two of the last five Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winners, Forte (2022) and Essential Quality (2020), won the Breeders’ Futurity on the way to being named the top two-year-old of their class. Other winners of this Keeneland feature who have gone on to win at the Breeders’ Cup include Classic Empire (2016), Boston Harbor (1996), and Tasso (1985).

2025 Breeders' Futurity Information

• Race Date: Saturday, October 4
• Track: Keeneland Race Course in Lexington, Ky.
• Post Time: 5:16 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time
• Distance: one and one-sixteenth miles on the dirt
• Age/Sex: Two-year-olds
• Where to Watch: FanDuel TV
• Where to Bet: FanDuel Racing

Breeders' Futurity Draw and Odds

These horses entered the 2025 Breeders’ Futurity. They are in order of post position, along with their trainers, jockeys, and morning-line odds.

Breeders' Futurity Prep Race Results

The seven runners come out of seven different races, and six of the runners are last-out winners.

Four of the horses in the field come out of stakes wins. Ted Noffey won at the top level, romping by 8 ½ lengths in the seven-furlong Hopeful (G1) at the end of the Saratoga Race Course meet. Ewing also comes out of a graded victory at the Spa: he wired the Saratoga Special (G2) on August 2, but bypassed the Hopeful and trained up to Keeneland. Spice Runner earned the first Kentucky Derby points of the season on September 13 at Churchill Downs, tracking the pace and getting up by a head in the Iroquois (G3). Diciassette stalked and pounced over a sloppy Gulfstream course in the six-furlong Proud Man on August 9, stepping up from a state-bred maiden win to defeat open company.

One other horse in the field comes out of a stakes race, though he is also the only horse in the field who did not win last out. That is Litmus Test, who flattened to fourth in the Del Mar Futurity (G1) on September 7, 4 ¼ lengths behind his well-regarded stablemate in the Bob Baffert barn, Brant.

The other two runners come out of maiden special weight wins. One graduated in New York: Big Dom stalked and pounced in a six-furlong sprint on August 3, winning by a neck on debut. The other stays in Kentucky: Blackout Time stretched out to a mile at Ellis Park for his second start on August 2, disputing the pace before drawing off to win by 9 ¾ lengths.

Breeders' Futurity Stakes Contenders

This is a closer look at the seven entered for the 2025 Breeders’ Futurity:

1. Blackout Time: He chased for second on debut in a race that was probably too short for him, but woke up stretching out to a two-turn mile at Ellis second-out, battling the early pace before drawing off to win by 9 ¾ lengths. Both of his races have come back fast, which is a plus, as is the fact that he is the only one with two-turn experience. Though, now he is drawn on the fence with some other speed outside him, meaning there’s a greater chance for chaos at the break, and he’s probably going to have to do the dirty work again, while facing better horses. He has potential, but demand a price, because the task will be tough.
2. Big Dom: The least experienced runner in the field, he comes out of a stalk-and-pounce debut maiden win in a six-furlong sprint at Saratoga. The tactical speed is a plus, and the race came back fast for the course and distance. There’s a concern that trainer Tom Amoss tends to underperform in graded-stakes races, but big-race jockey Irad Ortiz takes the call, and has been firing sharp in recent months when riding for Amoss. All in all, he should be a price and, with strong two-turn breeding top and bottom, he has significant upside.
3. Diciassette: After two starts against Gulfstream summer company—a step down from its winter meet, and a step down from the summer meets where the rest of the field has raced—he tries the big time at Keeneland. He is going to have to take a step forward off of those races, which is a question. He has to prove he is effective outside of Gulfstream, the two-turn 1 1/16-mile trip may be at the far end of how far he wants to go pedigree-wise, and his jockey, Jonathan Ocasio, has never ridden at Keeneland before. Especially for trainer Patrick Biancone, who struggles with shippers, waiting and seeing will be prudent.
4. Spice Runner: The most experienced horse in the field, this Steve Asmussen trainee has raced four times already. He won on debut at Churchill, and though he came up short in a couple of sprint stakes through the summer, he put it together in the Iroquois at the one-turn mile at Churchill Downs last month. This son of Gun Runner has some upside trying 1 1/16 miles for the first time, and he has shown the kind of tactical speed that should help him work out a trip under Tyler Gaffalione, who rode the winner in this race last year.
5. Litmus Test: The lone West Coast shipper, Litmus Test gets out of the shadow of his stablemates in the Bob Baffert barn—many of whom are trying the American Pharoah at Santa Anita—and tries eastern foes on for size. He showed some grit on debut, stalking the pace and digging in to hold by three-quarters of a length in a 5 ½ maiden special at Del Mar. The Del Mar Futurity didn’t go quite as well, as he tracked the pace but tired to fourth in the lane. Perhaps he’ll be fitter for this, and there’s some upside for this son of Nyquist stretching out, but he may get overbet on the Baffert factor, and his shippers tend to be good but not invincible.
6. Ted Noffey: He hasn’t set a hoof wrong in two starts so far. Both times he tracked the early pace before winning by daylight in the lane—a little bit (1 ½ lengths) on debut, and then a lot (8 ½ lengths) in the Hopeful on closing day at the Spa. Tactical speed for a toward-outside gate is a plus, as is the fact that he keeps John Velazquez in the saddle for this. The 1 1/16-mile trip is worth trying, but not a slam-dunk: trainer Todd Pletcher shines when stretching horses out, and sire Into Mischief has had enough classic types that he has to be respected, but the dam side is far more sprinter-miler.
7. Ewing: The name of the game is speed: both in his 5 ½-furlong debut win and the 6 ½-furlong Saratoga Special, he sent to the front and led at every call. To his credit, he was still able to get to the lead and hold on by a length in the Saratoga Special despite not breaking well. That happened from the rail, and he has a better chance for a cleaner break from the outside, but he’ll also have better horses trying to chase him down, or even trying to take it to him early in the case of Blackout Time. Should there be a speed bias—which can happen on big days at Keeneland!—Ewing is best set to take advantage. And, it’s interesting that Jose Ortiz turns up here and not with either Spice Runner or Big Dom, both of whom he rode last out.

Breeders’ Futurity: 3 Best Bets

These are the three best bets in the 2025 Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland:

1. Ewing (9-2)

Speed is a dangerous thing at Keeneland. Knicks Go leveraged that to beautiful effect when winning the 2018 edition of this race, and though his son Ewing won’t be the 70-1 that dear old dad was, he still has the early gas to get the same trip. It is a concern that he didn’t come away too well in the Saratoga Special, but he’s had two months to develop since then, and now he’s drawn outside, not hemmed on the fence like he was at the Spa that day. That should help him get away more cleanly. And, horses got close to him in both his maiden win and his last-out stakes win—the ability to turn back a bid is a plus, as well.

The connections increase confidence, as well. Casse does well when stretching horses out, and has been running well with jockey Jose Ortiz in recent months. Ortiz also had his pick of horses, based on the form lines: he rode Spice Runner in three of four starts, including his Iroquois win, and also broke Big Dom’s maiden. Yet, here he stays with Ewing, implying faith in big things to come.

2. Ted Noffey (4-5)

The punnily named Ted Noffey (a spoonerism of owner Spendthrift Farm’s general manager, Ned Toffey) has done everything asked of him in two starts, graduating in stalk-and-pounce fashion both on debut and in his even more impressive win in the Hopeful closing day at Saratoga. That score at Saratoga not only passed the looks test but came back fast. Of course, the question is whether he can run back to that or if he regresses. If he runs back to it (or moves forward), the rest will have some improving to do to catch him, though it was such a big jump that a regression is always going to be a worry at a short price.

The price and the risk of regression make up the biggest question about Ted Noffey, especially stepping up to two turns for the first time. But trainer Todd Pletcher excels when stretching horses out, and there’s enough in his pedigree to trust Pletcher’s judgment of sending him to Keeneland instead of keeping him in New York to contest the one-turn Champagne instead.

3. Big Dom (4-1)

With several proven stakes types in the field, the maiden winners may get ignored on the tote board. But, for those looking for a price —perhaps for spread tickets in multi-race wagers—consider Big Dom.

In terms of pace, he showed good tactical speed on debut, proving he can get close to the pace without needing to make the lead early to stay interested. That should help him and proven big-race jockey Irad Ortiz to get a good trip. You usually don’t want to be too far off the lead at Keeneland, especially on a big day, but he doesn’t have to get embroiled in a battle, something that might unfold with Blackout Time and Ewing bookending the field. And, even though he stretches out from six furlongs all the way to 1 1/16 miles, his pedigree suggests that’s where he wants to be, anyway – he is by McKinzie (a Whitney (G1) winner, and sire of Baeza and Scottish Lassie) out of a Pulpit half to Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies winner Halfbridled.

Breeders' Futurity FAQ

Q: When and where is the Breeders' Futurity?

A: The Breeders’ Futurity (known as the Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity for sponsorship purposes) happens Saturday, October 4 at 5:16 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time at Keeneland Race Course in Lexington, Kentucky. It is the ninth of 11 races on Keeneland’s Fall Stars Saturday card.

Q: Which trainer has the most wins in the Breeders' Futurity?

A: The all-time leading trainer in the Breeders’ Futurity is the late D. Wayne Lukas. His six winners include Dance Floor (1991), Mountain Cat (1992), Honour and Glory (1995), Boston Harbor (1996), Cat Thief (1998), and Consolidator (2004). Among trainers with an entrant in the 2025 Breeders’ Futurity, Todd Pletcher leads with four wins, most recently with Locked in 2023. He can win for the fifth time if Ted Noffey passes the two-turn test.

Q: Who is the favorite for the Breeders' Futurity?

A: Ted Noffey is the 4-5 morning-line favorite for the Breeders’ Futurity and is expected to hold as the well-defined betting choice. He is undefeated in two starts, including an 8 ½-length blowout in the Hopeful (G1) on closing day at Saratoga.

Q: Who is the best Breeders' Futurity jockey?

A: Jockey Don Brumfield won the Breeders’ Futurity a record five times between 1969 and 1979. Among those with a call in the 2025 edition, Jose Ortiz and John Velazquez are tied for the lead with two wins each. Ortiz, who most recently won with Locked in 2023, rides Ewing on Saturday. Velazquez, whose last win came in 2014 with Carpe Diem, rides Ted Noffey.

Q: Who won the Breeders' Futurity in 2024?

A: East Avenue bounced out to the lead and took the Breeders’ Futurity field around in 2024 for trainer Brendan Walsh and jockey Tyler Gaffalione. Walsh does not send out an entrant this year, but Gaffalione takes the reins for Steve Asmussen trainee Spice Runner.

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