AFC Championship Game: Best NFL Bets and Predictions for Bills at Chiefs

Even within a single NFL game, betting markets are abundant.

You've got everything from spreads and totals to touchdown scorers and player props at your disposal. It can be a lot to sort through.

Using the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook as a guide, here are the best bets for the Conference Championship matchup between the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs.

All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.

Bills at Chiefs Betting Picks

Bills' Moneyline (+108)

When markets for this game first opened Sunday night, I bet the Bills' moneyline at +104, thinking they had the potential to even close as favorites in this game.

Clearly, I was wrong as the market has moved toward the Chiefs, instead. The things that drew me in on the Bills still stand, though.

Primarily, this offense is elite. In numberFire's schedule-adjusted offensive rankings, the Bills are third overall, third passing, and second rushing. That rushing ranking figures to get a jolt in the playoffs, too, as they become more willing to lean on Josh Allen's legs.

That was a key for the first matchup between these two teams. Allen ran a season-high 12 times for 55 yards and a game-sealing touchdown late. That turbo boost makes the Bills 0.8-point favorites in my model's NFL spread and total predictions, pushing me toward the moneyline here.

Total Over 47.5 (-110)

The Chiefs' offense has a turbo boost of its own during the playoffs. Although it's not enough for me to back off of betting the Bills, it does give me plentiful interest in the over.

For his career, Patrick Mahomes has averaged 5.1 rushes for 28.3 yards per game during the playoffs; that's up from marks of 3.9 and 20.0, respectively, in the regular season. Most of these come in key late-down situations, keeping a drive alive to pick up points.

Mahomes and company have also ticked up as their receiver corps has gotten better. Mahomes has averaged 0.20 Passing Net Expected Points (NEP, numberFire's EPA metric) per drop back in games he has played with DeAndre Hopkins. That would have ranked 7th among quarterbacks with at least 100 drop backs had it been his full-season mark. In the three games with Marquise Brown, Mahomes is at 0.30 Passing NEP per drop back, which would have ranked fourth.

This means we've got two efficient offenses facing two non-elite defenses. The weather here is ripe for offense, as well, with projected wind speeds at just three miles per hour.

Thus, I've got the total all the way up at 52.0, allowing us to have a fun bet in this one if you don't want to root against Mahomes.

You can also click here to check out our updated 2024-25 printable NFL playoff bracket.

Get a Profit Boost to use on a 3+ leg SGP wager on either of the NFL Playoff games taking place on January 26th, 2025!

Also, FanDuel customers can now participate in the Kick of Destiny 3: Peyton vs. Eli. Get your FREE pick in now and, If you’re right, you’ll win a share of $10,000,000 in Bonus Bets. See here for full terms and conditions.

Looking for the latest NFL odds? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook and check out all of the NFL betting options.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.