5 Best NBA Bets and Player Props for Sunday 1/19/25

The 82-game NBA regular season offers us a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. The Association features 1,230 regular season games, which can make sifting through the odds an overwhelming task.

However, various advanced statistics can help narrow the choices. numberFire's NBA power rankings and daily NBA projections paired with advanced stats from the NBA can help give the inside track to quality bets.

While utilizing some of the mentioned tools, which NBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook look like the best bets today?

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All injury news comes from the NBA's official injury report.

Today's Best NBA Bets and Player Props

San Antonio Spurs at Miami Heat

Spurs Moneyline (+124)

Victor Wembanyama and the San Antonio Spurs are approaching the point where I'll look their way at plus money of this kind against anyone.

That's especially the case against a flawed Miami Heat engulfed in chaos. Jimmy Butler returned from suspension as Miami lost by 20 and said "we are where we are" after the game. There's only six-to-eight teams I'd favor Miami over right now, which isn't crazy with a net rating (NRTG) of -2.8 over their last 15 games.

San Antonio (-0.1 NRTG) has been a reliable customer in this same time frame in the tougher conference, and they're in a buy-low position off two straight losses to the vaunted Memphis Grizzlies.

Bam Adebayo (back) might also not be 100% with an injury listing, but he'll play. I'll back this Butler-Heat saga to write another chapter with a home loss in this rematch of the 2013 and 2014 NBA Finals.

Denver Nuggets at Orlando Magic

Magic +7.5 (-106)
Jamal Murray Under 25.5 Points and Assists (-118)

The Orlando Magic have been a sizzling bet at home this season, returning cash in 14 of their 21 games (66.6%) against the spread (ATS). They've found a way through injuries, and it's easy to take all these points as arguably the best matchup in the NBA for Nikola Jokic.

Orlando allows the fifth-fewest points, fewest rebounds, and fewest assists per games to centers with an elite paint defense. If Jokic can't get going as normal, the Denver Nuggets 113.3 defensive rating (DRTG) is just 17th in the NBA.

Dunks & Threes' adjusted NRTGs -- always friendly to the analytic-driven Nuggets -- shows +4.6 for Denver and +0.6 for Orlando, who have home court. You'd still favor the Nuggets to prevail, but another Magic cover at Amway Center is far from crazy.

However, in the prop market here, I've given up on Jokic unders. His points, rebounds, and assists (PRA) prop is suppressed to 48.5 in this matchup anyway.

Instead, Jamal Murray has taken a massive step back in Denver's pecking order, which has been hidden by a few pop games. Overall with Nikola Jokic and Russell Westbrook on the floor, Murray's usage rate plummets to just 22.1%.

The Magic aren't a spot for a pop game. They allow the fewest points (20.4) and assists (3.8) per game to shooting guards, which has become his off-ball role after the insertion of Westbrook.

FanDuel Research's daily NBA projections have Murray projected for just 25.1 points and assists, implying we'd set this line closer to -120.

Chicago Bulls at Portland Trail Blazers

Trail Blazers Over 114.5 Points (-118)
Anfernee Simons Over 5.5 Assists (+112)

Largely a traveling circus, the Chicago Bulls bring their basketball funhouse to the Pacific Northwest on Sunday.

Chicago's eighth-worst DRTG (115.8) and second-fastest pace (104.3) have allowed 119.2 points per game in January, and these are the spots where the market isn't out of control to fade them. The Portland Trail Blazers haven't topped 115 points on a five-game losing skid despite ranking 15th in pace.

Portland should see a lift offensively after Jerami Grant's return yesterday. Grant has posted 16.4 points per 36 minutes despite a low usage rate (20.2%).

The Bulls' implied total (121.5) is out of control for a bad team on the road to take this full game's over, but the Blazers' team one makes sense; their effective field-goal rate (eFG%) is 52.5% at home versus 50.9% on the road.

We can bust some trends in the prop market here, too.

Anfernee Simons is averaging just 5.2 assists in January and has topped this line just twice this month. Why?

Firstly, he's had a brutal recent stretch for counting production. He's actually faced four straight bottom-10 squads in pace. Secondarily, he's underperformed 8.1 potential assists per game this month, and the team's leader (Scoot Henderson; 10.1) just got demoted to the bench for Grant. Jackpot.

I'm personally waiting in this market for a 4.5, which should come as recent average bettors see Simons just isn't hitting six assists -- but he he did exactly that against the Detroit Pistons and Milwaukee Bucks' superior pace two weeks ago. Teams don't play much faster than the Bulls.

We've got Simons at 5.6 median assists in this matchup.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.