5 Best MLB Bets, Player Props, and Home Run Picks for Sunday 7/6/25

In a given MLB slate, you've got tons of markets to dig through, from totals to home runs and strikeout props.

Which bets stand out for today's games?

Below, I'm going to run through my favorite bets in FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB betting odds. You can get additional insights from our daily MLB player prop projections.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best MLB Bets, Player Props, and Home Run Picks

Los Angeles Angels at Toronto Blue Jays

Angels +1.5 (-132)

Astoundingly, the Los Angeles Angels have covered this in both games against the Toronto Blue Jays in extras and remain winless in the series.

That could change Sunday, but if oddsmakers are giving me a cushion, I'll take it.

L.A.'s Tyler Anderson is an innate advantage to slow down the Jays, whose team OPS in the past 30 days is just .666 (ninth-worst in MLB). It's .784 in this time against righties. Anderson is also entering allowing just one earned in his last 10.2 innings, upping the usage of his slider in this time.

Meanwhile, Kevin Gausman's 3.98 xERA is largely beatable. The veteran has issues with hard contact (39.9% rate) and flyballs (45.4%) that could loom large against an Angels squad that has the 12th-most homers against righties in the past month (28).

Toronto's struggling bullpen, holding the worst xFIP (4.74) for relievers in the past 30 days, is also a substantial concern to cover such a large number.

Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardians

Guardians Under 2.5 Runs (-106)

Is Tarik Skubal this good? Yes, but the Cleveland Guardians also stink against lefties -- or in general.

Cleveland has been limited to just one run in this Fourth of July weekend series and, now, has to face one of the league's premier arms. Skubal's 2.37 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) and 4.3 fWAR leads all MLB qualifying pitchers, and he's second to only Garrett Crochet in strikeouts (138).

In the past month, the Guards' .631 team OPS against southpaws is fifth-worst in baseball, and they've fanned at a 22.8% clip. That sample doesn't even include Skubal's complete game with 13 Ks against them on May 25th.

Don't sleep on the Detroit Tigers' bullpen as part of this equation, though. They're third in reliever xFIP over the past 30 days (3.51) themselves.

Pittsburgh Pirates at Seattle Mariners

Under 3.5 Runs in First 5 Innings (-140)

Consider this a warning about the full-game under in Emerald City on Sunday.

Both the Pittsburgh Pirates and Seattle Mariners have bottom-10 bullpens by xFIP in the past 30 days. That's a huge issue for a low total like 6.5 once Paul Skenes and George Kirby depart -- but enjoy them while they're here.

Skenes, the NL Cy Young odds-on favorite, had but one blip on the radar during the dog days but otherwise remains baseball's second-most reliable commodity to Skubal. He's posted at least 5.0 innings and fewer than two runs in 10 of his last 11 starts. Seattle's .771 team OPS in the last 30 is a bit scary, but if he can dodge Cal Raleigh twice, the rest of the lineup shouldn't be an issue.

As for Seattle's Kirby, the righty is finally shaking off a slow start from having the beginning of his year delayed by injury. He's gone at least 5.0 innings allowing fewer than two earned in five of his last six, and the Buccos shouldn't be a problem. They've posted MLB's fourth-worst OPS (.663) against righties in the past month.

With two aces in line to shove, I'll back one of them to perform to standard as the other, perhaps, maintains a shutout in one of MLB's most pitcher-friendly venues.

Houston Astros at Los Angeles Dodgers

Christian Walker to Record 2+ Total Bases (+130)

It's become as simple as just trusting Christian Walker at Dodger Stadium.

Walker has a career 1.203 OPS at the venue, totaling 24 extra-base hits in 44 career games. Of course, most of this damage came with the Arizona Diamondbacks, but he's amassed eight total bases in two games during this series as a member of the Houston Astros.

Overall, the first baseman's .843 OPS and .171 ISO in the past month against righties like Emmet Sheehan are good form, and I don't trust Sheehan to get outs.

The right-handed hurler's first 4.0 innings went fine (1.62 xERA), but a 44.4% hard-hit rate allowed shows plenty of hard contact. In his last MLB stint in 2023, Sheehan coughed up 1.64 HR/9 behind issues with hard contact, too.

The Los Angeles Dodgers' bullpen has had a rough month (4.33 xFIP), so Walker should have a favorable matchup throughout Sunday's game. FanDuel Research's MLB player prop projections expect 2.1 median total bases, so we'd have put these odds closer to -163.

San Francisco Giants at Athletics

Willy Adames to Hit a Home Run (+420)

As what is surely a logistical issue with the Triple-A side at Sutter Health Park, let's close out the night with a homer prop at MLB's eighth-best park for bombs this season.

It's not often a game follows Sunday Night Baseball, but this one will at 10:06 P.M. EST. Willy Adames might be worth staying up for.

Adames faces southpaw Jacob Lopez on a power binge against lefties, posting a .286 ISO, 68.8% flyball rate, and a 37.5% hard-hit rate across his last month (or 25 plate appearances).

Lopez, meanwhile, has allowed an elevated 1.57 HR/9 at home due to his gigantic flyball rate (53.3%). The lefty's peripherals might be overselling his peripherals with a homer-to-flyball ratio (10.8%) decently below the league average (11.9%).

Our projections expect 0.25 median round-trippers from Adams on Sunday, implying closer to +352 odds for a dinger.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.