5 Best MLB Bets, Player Props, and Home Run Picks for Saturday 7/5/25

In a given MLB slate, you've got tons of markets to dig through, from totals to home runs and strikeout props.

Which bets stand out for today's games?

Below, I'm going to run through my favorite bets in FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB betting odds. You can get additional insights from our daily MLB player prop projections.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best MLB Bets, Player Props, and Home Run Picks

Los Angeles Angels at Toronto Blue Jays

Over 9.5 Runs (+100)

Today's pitching at Rogers Centre could be a tough scene.

Unfortunately, that includes the famed Max Scherzer for the home Toronto Blue Jays, too. The veteran's age-40 season has come with an unmistakable contact problem, per a 4.88 xERA that nearly matches his actual (4.85). We'll get to some of the specifics in a moment.

However, Jack Kochanowicz of the Los Angeles Angels is equally -- if not -- additionally -- complicit. Kochanowicz's 4.98 xERA is worse, and he's permitted 1.57 HR/9 while getting very few batters to whiff (9.2% swinging-strike rate).

Both of these bullpens also rank in the bottom 11 of skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) over the past 30 days, as well. Something tells me last night's quiet, seven-run affair will be an afterthought.

Taylor Ward to Hit a Home Run (+420)

Mike Trout is +250 for a bomb, and Jo Adell went deep last night for the 10th time in the last month. Taylor Ward might be the forgotten Angel in the outfield.

Ward's performed fine against right-handed pitching in the last 30 days, posting an .800 OPS, .190 ISO, 53.3% flyball rate (!), and 95.6% medium-to-hard-hit rate in 80 plate appearances (PAs).

The loft should be particularly helpful against Scherzer, who has coughed up 2.45 HR/9 to right-handed pitching. Mad Max's season-long issues with flyball (47.2%) and barrel (11.1%) rate make it no surprise that mistakes have left the yard.

Against Scherzer and an embattled Jays 'pen, our MLB player prop projections expect 0.24 median homers from Ward on Saturday. We'd have set him closer to +369 for a round trip.

Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardians

Tigers Over 4.5 Runs (-128)

I'm unsure how the fading peripherals of Casey Mize meet a waffling Cleveland Guardians offense, but we can back the Detroit Tigers' sticks in "The Land".

Detroit has, quietly, crushed lefties the same way we've known them to smash righties. In the past month, the Tigers' .858 team OPS against left-handed pitching leads baseball.

Logan Allen is the southpaw tasked with slowing them down, and I'm unsure he can. Allen's 4.83 SIERA is poor, and the sinkerballer isn't known for his swing-and-miss stuff, but a 7.3% swinging-strike rate is a true display of lacking an out pitch. He does a good job of managing hard contact (32.3% rate allowed), though.

Before meeting an offense humming against left-handers, Allen has coughed up multiple runs in five straight, opening the door for a Cleveland 'pen, holding MLB's second-worst SIERA over the past 30 days (4.21), to do the rest.

Wenceel Perez to Record 2+ Total Bases (+105)

Unexpected contributors surely pop up when you're leading MLB in a given split, and Wenceel Perez has absolutely delivered on this side of the dish.

The switch-hitter is licking his chops at present when he gets to stand in the right-handed side of the box. Against lefties, Perez has tallied an unbelievable 1.357 OPS, .565 ISO, 60.0% flyball rate, and 45.0% hard-hit rate over the past month (25 PAs).

Though Allen's sinker tends to limit hard contact for a bomb, Perez's bases prop is a decent compromise -- especially when his walk rate in these parameters (4.4%) is tiny.

With FDR projecting 1.65 median total bases, we've got to love getting plus money here.

San Francisco Giants at Athletics

Giants -1.5 (-110)

It wasn't an amazing Fourth of July in San Fran as the San Francisco Giants took an 11-2 drubbing against the Athletics. The script could easily flip tonight.

Logan Webb is a great head start. The righty would be in the NL Cy Young conversation if Paul Skenes hadn't already basically ended it, posting a 2.82 SIERA with what is pacing as a career-high in strikeout rate (27.5%). He's amassed a quality start in seven straight outings entering this matchup with the A's, and his sinker (53.1% groundball rate) is perhaps the perfect weapon in baseball to ward off homer-happy Sutter Health Park.

Meanwhile, Luis Severino's pessimism about the Athletics' home venue has manifested in poor results. He's rocking a 6.94 home ERA that is just 3.07 on the road, permitting 3.17 BB and 1.11 HR per nine innings at the Triple-A stadium.

The Giants have MLB's fifth-best reliever SIERA over the past month (3.20), so Webb's deep outing plus S.F.'s top arms are a consistent pitching advantage that affords me confidence they'll be able to win by two-plus markers.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.