5 Best MLB Bets, Player Props, and Home Run Picks for Friday 7/4/25

In a given MLB slate, you've got tons of markets to dig through, from totals to home runs and strikeout props.

Which bets stand out for today's games?

Below, I'm going to run through my favorite bets in FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB betting odds. You can get additional insights from our daily MLB player prop projections.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best MLB Bets, Player Props, and Home Run Picks

New York Yankees at New York Mets

Marcus Stroman Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-142)

The Subway Series between the New York Yankees and New York Mets begins on Independence Day, but the Mets have yet to announce their starter. This turns my head to props centered around the Yankees' Marcus Stroman and the Mets' batting order. Where could we get the best value?

Through four starts, Stroman has stumbled out the gate with an 8.16 ERA, 6.00 SIERA, and 5.70 xFIP. He's typically not known for stacking Ks, finishing under the 40th percentile of K% across his entire career. Last season, Stroman posted a 16.7% K rate (seventh percentile), and this has taken yet another dip in 2025, sitting at 12.1%. Even with his strikeout total at 3.5, the under remains a reliable side.

He's yet to reach four strikeouts in any of his four starts. The Mets have been disciplined at the plate with the 10th-lowest K%, and they have the 7th-most runs above average against sinkers -- which is Stroman's most-used pitch with 40.4% usage rate. Our MLB DFS projections have the Yankees' hurler totaling only 2.94 Ks.

Juan Soto to Hit a Home Run (+420)

Continuing with the trend of fading Stroman, which Mets batter seems bound for success? The Mets rank seventh in SLG, eighth for isolated power, and sixth in home run percentage. Meanwhile, Stroman is on pace to finish in the bottom third of hard-hit rate, barrel percentage, and average exit velocity allowed. He's also giving up 1.88 home runs per nine innings. Backing a slugger should be firmly on our radars.

Juan Soto is an ideal candidate after batting .322 with a .722 SLG and 11 home runs in June. Baseball Savant has Soto in the 98th percentile of average exit velocity, 95th percentile of barrel rate, and 98th percentile of hard-hit percentage. With Stroman ceding three dingers over four starts, Soto could be bound to go yard once again.

Stroman's four most-used pitches are a sinker (40.4%), slurve (22.2%), cutter (10.5%), and four-seam fastball (10.2%). Soto is batting only .190 against sinkers this season, but positive regression should be imminent considering his .314 career average against the pitch. He's also hitting .438 against cutters and .293 when facing four seamers, and Soto bats .310 and .319 against the pitches for his career. His success against slurves is somewhat unknown since we don't have numbers for the specific pitch. However, Soto is under .234 this season and in his career against sliders and curveballs.

Overall, Soto's pitch usage matchup is encouraging against sinkers, cutters, and four-seam fastballs. He's also hit 16 of his 20 big flies against right-handed hurlers. Even projections are suggesting good value, giving Soto 0.26 homers -- which has a 22.9% implied probability (or +337 odds) compared to the current line's 19.2% implied probability.

With two favorable props under our belt, this could be a nice building block for FanDuel Sportsbook's 50% Profit Boost Token on a 3+ Leg Same Game Parlay Wager on the Yankees-Mets for July 4.

Texas Rangers at San Diego Padres

Rangers -0.5 First 5 Innings Run Line (+108)

The San Diego Padres' Randy Vasquez touts a solid 3.84 ERA, but advanced stats point to regression. This includes his 5.59 SIERA and 5.71 xFIP. Even his numbers against power hitting look questionable, for Vasquez ranks in the 16th percentile of barrel rate allowed but has ceded only a 9.7 HR/FB%. Vasquez still surrenders 1.28 home runs per nine innings, but this could continue to climb in the upcoming months.

Vasquez's regression could begin on The Fourth against the Texas Rangers. They've totaled 5.1 runs per game over the last 10 games. Plus, they are in the top half of runs above average against two of his three most-used pitches (cutter and sinker). With Vasquez carrying a 4.96 ERA over his last three starts, the Rangers should be licking their chops.

Texas is also putting a vulnerable starter on the mound in Kumar Rocker. The club's rookie has a 6.13 ERA, but his 3.85 SIERA and 3.77 xFIP aren't too shabby. The advanced stats are beginning to generate positive regression with Rocker boasting a 2.20 ERA over his past three outings.

San Diego hasn't been a productive batting order of recent, averaging only 3.0 runs per contest in the past 10 games. Furthermore, the Padres are in the bottom 10 of runs above average against two of Rocker's three most-used pitches (sinker and four-seam fastball).

The starting pitcher matchup is leaning in the Rangers' favor, giving us an angle for the first five innings.

Houston Astros at Los Angeles Dodgers

Dodgers Over 4.5 Runs (-148)

The Houston Astros and Los Angeles Dodgers will begin a series that should have plenty of fireworks this weekend. Houston is 8-2 over its past 10 while L.A. carries a 9-1 record in the split. After totaling 6.5 runs per game over the last 10, we should especially expect fireworks from the Dodgers against Lance McCullers.

Houston's starter has a 6.61 ERA, 4.24 SIERA, and 4.38 xFIP. He carries a dreadful 12.96 ERA over his last two outings. Los Angeles is in the top half of runs above average against his three most-used pitches (slider, sinker, and changeup) and is in the top five when facing sliders and changeups. McCullers is ceding 1.93 homers per nine innings while ranking in the ninth percentile of barrel rate allowed and first percentile of hard-hit percentage surrendered. The Dodgers lead baseball in SLG, isolated power, and home run rate.

This is a nightmare waiting to happen for McCullers. Considering Los Angeles' recent hot streak, over 4.5 runs is certainly obtainable in this matchup.

Freddie Freeman to Hit a Home Run (+400)

McCullers' nightmare isn't over yet. Five of FanDuel Sportsbook's six shortest home run prop lines are held by Dodgers in this meeting. Among Los Angeles' rotation full of sluggers, Freddie Freeman is drawing interest with a nice matchup.

After batting only .200 in June, Freeman has totaled at least two hits in three of the last four and sports a .438 batting average in the split. Ranking in the 80th percentile of average exit velocity and 70th percentile of hard-hit rate, Freeman still has homer potential even with only 10 dingers on the season.

McCullers is a right-handed pitcher, and Freeman bats .335 vs. righties compared to .247 when facing southpaws. Freeman is hitting .269 against sliders, .289 vs. sinkers, and .333 when seeing changeups, giving him nothing but solid marks against McCullers' top pitches. A knuckle curve is his fourth-most used pitch with a 14.8% usage rate, and Freeman even hits well against this with a .315 career average.

As mentioned, McCullers has been susceptible against slugging and has allowed six big flies over his past five starts. Winds to right field further aids the left-handed Freeman. Instead of taking the left-handed Shohei Ohtani to go yard (+172), we can get a much more enticing line with Freeman (+400).

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.