4 Best NFL Bets for Week 14

The further we get into each NFL season, the thinner the betting margins get.

We've got large samples on every team, meaning we know what to expect. The bookmakers have the same data, allowing them to build more efficient betting lines.

Thus, it's a good time to be picky while filling out our betslips. I do, though, still think there are some undervalued teams and some overlooked factors in the spread and total markets.

Today, we'll dig into four bets I like based on my model's NFL Week 14 spread and total predictions compared to FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL betting odds. They're all spots I feel good about despite the fact the market is sharpening its teeth as we enter the stretch run.

NFL Week 14 Betting Picks

Raiders at Buccaneers

Buccaneers -6.5 (-110)

I was super impressed with Aidan O'Connell last week, and I bumped up the Las Vegas Raiders' offense as a result.

I just want to keep buying into the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

The Bucs enter Week 14 sitting fifth in numberFire's schedule-adjusted offensive rankings. They've averaged 0.14 Adjusted Net Expected Points (NEP, numberFire's EPA metric) per play, a number that is still 0.12 since Chris Godwin's injury even though Mike Evans missed three of five games while Tristan Wirfs missed one.

Meanwhile, the Raiders' defense is still lagging behind. They're 23rd overall and 31st against the pass. Baker Mayfield and company should be able to put up points here, forcing O'Connell and the Raiders to play keep-up.

It's possible they can, given how well Brock Bowers and Jakobi Meyers are playing. I've got faith in the Bucs, though, pushing me to back them again even though they failed to cover last week.

Jets at Dolphins

Total Under 44.5 (-110)

This total has come down a point since yesterday. I agree with that move and think it should continue to descend.

Most of it is due to non-efficiency factors. Primarily, this is an aggressively slow-paced game. The Miami Dolphins and New York Jets rank 26th and 32nd, respectively, in Brandon Gdula's adjusted NFL pace numbers.

Secondarily, current wind speed projections are at 12 miles per hour. That lowers the total more than a point for me from where it would be if they were at five miles per hour.

I do think the Dolphins will be able to move the ball here. They've been hyper-efficient since Tua Tagovailoa's return. They just haven't had as many explosives, allowing me to turn toward the under despite that efficiency.

Chargers at Chiefs

Total Over 42.5 (-115)

This is the biggest discrepancy between my numbers and the market for this week. I would lose some enthusiasm if Ladd McConkey were to sit, but I've got enough cushion toward the over to take it now regardless.

A lot of it comes down to something we've discussed plenty of late: the Kansas City Chiefs' offense has been much more efficient since DeAndre Hopkins' debut. From Week 8 on, they've averaged 0.16 Adjusted NEP per play, up from 0.11 before then.

Now, they've got Isiah Pacheco back in the mix. Kareem Hunt had a lofty success rate, but he wasn't generating explosives with his longest run being just 17 yards. Pacheco busted off a 34-yarder in his first game back. This run game is sound and well-blocked, but they haven't had a back who could fully take advantage until now.

Importantly, the defense has also taken a step back. They allowed O'Connell and Bryce Young to play well in consecutive weeks. That leads me to believe in Justin Herbert even if McConkey is out.

I've got this total closer to 47, and with the total at 42, we get wins on key numbers of 44 and 47. Even at -115, I think there's good value here.

Bengals at Cowboys

Total Under 49.5 (-112)

In order for this game to go over, the Cincinnati Bengals and Dallas Cowboys would need to combine for 50 points. That's a tough sell for me with Cooper Rush at quarterback regardless of how poor the defenses have been.

The Cowboys' defense has been brutal this year, sitting 28th overall for the full season. They have, though, shown signs of life the past two games with Micah Parsons and DaRon Bland back. Facing Drew Lock is a lot different than Joe Burrow, but it's still encouraging.

Additionally, I'm still skeptical of that Cowboys offense. They're at -0.13 Adjusted NEP per play in Rush's starts. They've put up points, but a good chunk of that has been due to big plays on defense and special teams. That's not the most sustainable formula.

As a result, I've got this total at 47. I get why the total is this high because of the defenses involved, but I care more about offense, and one of these is unlikely to keep scoring at the clip it has.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.