4 Best NFL Bets and Predictions for Week 6

The dogs are barking in NFL Week 6.

When I look at the biggest values in my model's spread and total predictions, the top seven are all on underdogs. Some of them are catching enough points where I don't mind biting on the spread, but for at least one of them, I think they should be favored.

What could go wrong?

Let's dig into those bets and lay out my favorite options across Week 6 in FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL betting odds.

Best NFL Week 6 Spread and Total Bets

Seahawks at Jaguars

Seahawks Moneyline (+100)

Even though the Seattle Seahawks lost in Week 5 while the Jacksonville Jaguars won, Seattle impressed me more. This looks like a good spot to buy in on a team I've been below market on to open the season.

In their back-and-forth duel with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Sam Darnold averaged 0.75 Passing Net Expected Points (NEP, numberFire's EPA metric) per drop back. That brings his full-season number up to 0.37. For context, when Darnold won 14 games with the Minnesota Vikings last year, he was at just 0.15 Passing NEP per drop back. He's playing better now than he did in his breakout season.

As for the Jacksonville Jaguars, their biggest strength has been generating turnovers on defense, something that's fluky and hard to project going forward. That's especially true for a team that doesn't generate an inordinate amount of pressure. Thus, I agree that we can fade them coming off a big primetime win, backing the Seahawks at even money.

Patriots at Saints

Saints +3.5 (-115)

Speaking of fading teams off of big primetime wins, the New England Patriots are getting massive respect in the market after their defeat of the Buffalo Bills. At least in my eyes, it's a bit too much respect, opening up value in the New Orleans Saints.

All the praise you've seen of Drake Maye is valid and fair as their passing offense has been solid, sitting sixth in numberFire's schedule-adjusted offensive rankings. The run game has been putrid, though, sitting dead last in my model's schedule-adjusted early-down EPA per carry while they're 26th in running back rushing success rate, again adjusted for schedule. Until they decide to skew more pass-heavy, their overall offensive numbers are going to be more average than elite.

This isn't all about fading New England off a big game, though. The Saints have exceeded my expectations, sitting 26th and 21st in numberFire's offensive and defensive efficiency rankings, respectively. While that's hardly elite, they're not the bottom-dwelling unit I expected them to be entering the year.

Those low expectations are still factored into my model as we shouldn't filter out priors this early in the season. Even with that, I've got the Patriots favored by just a point here. That allows me to take the points with the Saints and hope they can keep playing frisky football at home.

Chargers at Dolphins

Dolphins +4.5 (-105)

This all comes down to health: the Los Angeles Chargers' offense has been beat to hell yet again. We saw the effects last week, and I wouldn't be shocked if it continues against the Miami Dolphins.

With their two starting tackles out, the Chargers tried to lean on the ground game to keep Justin Herbert clean. Not only did the offense sputter, but now that'll be tougher this time around with Omarion Hampton on injured reserve. Running backs aren't massive needle-movers, but once you pass a certain threshold, it starts to hurt the offense. The Chargers have reached that point.

I really don't want to bet on the Dolphins, whose defense is abysmal and offense is lacking its biggest threat. Still, 4.5 is a lot of points, and it'll be a toasty 87 degrees in Miami. With the Chargers favored by just 1.7 in my model, I'll take the points and hope the Dolphins don't embarrass yet again.

Bengals at Packers

Total Over 44.5 (-104)

This total rose to 44.5 from 43.5 after the Cincinnati Bengals traded for Joe Flacco yesterday. That means we no longer get a win on 44, which is a big key number for totals. I'm still far enough above market to like this one, though.

Part of that is because Flacco does what led to Jake Browning's benching: he'll put the ball in harm's way. As long as it's not at the end of a long drive, that can lead to short fields for the Green Bay Packers' offense and put points on the board in a hurry. That -- plus the Bengals' poor defense -- has contributed to three of the four games Browning played featuring 58 or more points.

I also do want to buy into the Packers' offense. They come out of their bye ranked sixth in numberFire's offensive rankings despite playing large chunks of their opening schedule without key players along the offensive line. In this matchup at home, they can likely name their score.

That could lead to simply taking the Packers' team total over, but it's lofty at 29.5 with the over at -115. I'd rather give myself an extra route to this bet cashing in case Flacco's able to unlock something now that he has Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins at his disposal.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.