4 Best NFL Bets and Predictions for Week 15

It's Week 15.

By this point, we may not know what caliber of team we're getting from each squad, but we've got a pretty good idea.

And, at least to me, it seems like the betting markets are resisting that for this week's games.

Some of my biggest disagreements for this week are on teams whose output this year has deviated heavily from preseason expectations. While those priors matter, it looks like they're getting a bit too much weight as things stand.

Let's dig into where that's leading to value for me in FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL betting odds.

Best NFL Week 15 Spread and Total Bets

Bills at Patriots

Patriots Moneyline (+100)

It's pretty easy to figure out why the Buffalo Bills are favored over the New England Patriots. They have a longer track record of dominance, and the Patriots haven't faced many elite teams this year, throwing cold water on their stellar record.

I understand the first point as we are still dealing with small samples. The second, though, gives me a bit of pause.

My betting model takes two separate methodologies for power rating teams and blends them together. One of those models is more aggressive in dinging the Patriots for their poor strength of schedule. Let's focus on that one.

In that model, after adjusting for projected Week 15 injuries, the Patriots are just 13th in the power rankings. They are much higher in the other, and I think 13th is too low.

But even if we focus on just the model that's penalizing the Patriots aggressively, it would still have them favored by 0.4 points with this game in Foxoboro as the Pats come off a bye. To me, that nullifies the argument that the Bills should be favored just because the Patriots' schedule has been soft.

Once you blend in the other model (which backtests better and gets 60% of the weighting), I have the Patriots favored by 2.8 points.

A lot of this comes down to the respective defenses. The Patriots are sixth by numberFire's schedule-adjusted metrics while the Bills are 17th. The Patriots have also had the more efficient passing offense, which is the primary catalyst of the model that adores them. They're a good football team, and yet they're home underdogs off a bye.

I've seen enough where I am willing to bet the Patriots. That's risk with Josh Allen entering Winter Soldier mode, but that risk is fully baked into this price.

Ravens at Bengals

Bengals Moneyline (+124)

This is less a bet on the Cincinnati Bengals than it is one against the Baltimore Ravens.

For the full season, Lamar Jackson is averaging 0.06 Passing Net Expected Points (NEP, numberFire's EPA metric) per drop back. That ranks 24th out of 44 quarterbacks with at least 100 drop backs, right between Michael Penix Jr. and Marcus Mariota. Since returning from his injury, that number drops to -0.09, which would be rank 40th.

I don't know what's causing this, but it's not improving. Jackson's worst showing came against these same Bengals at home two weeks ago, and things weren't great last week, either. We know that the MVP version of Jackson could crop up at any time, but what reason have we gotten to believe that'll be this weekend?

As for the Bengals, they are very unlikely to have Tee Higgins due to another concussion, but Higgins also missed the first Baltimore game. Joe Burrow was still relatively efficient there and has now had extra time to get comfortable post-toe injury.

It all adds together to make the Bengals slight favorites in my model. Similar to the Patriots, there's risk in this bet because old Lamar could come roaring back, which is why I'd prefer to take the moneyline rather than getting 2.5 points on the spread.

Lions at Rams

Total Under 54.5 (-102)

Look, I don't want to root against points in this banger game, either. It's Matthew Stafford versus Jared Goff, and life is more fun when those two can trade blow for blow.

I just can't get a total this high with how the Los Angeles Rams' defense is playing.

They're currently numberFire's third-ranked defense, trailing just the Seattle Seahawks and Houston Texans. They're top-eight against both the rush and the pass, and they have butt-kickers up front who could cause issues for a Lions offensive line in flux.

I've still got this total pretty high at 51.0 points. But with totals landing on 51 and 54 points at a decent enough clip, we've got paths where this game is fun and still goes under the total. That's why I'm willing to back this under even if it does make me a little queasy with how fun this game looks on paper.

Commanders at Giants

Total Over 46.5 (-120)

As weird (dumb?) as it may be, I actually have the total higher here than in Lions-Rams. It's because both the Washington Commanders' and New York Giants' defenses are driving the struggle bus.

These are currently the two worst defenses by numberFire's metrics. A pass attempt against the Commanders' defense has been as efficient on average as a Drake Maye drop back. A rush attempt against the Giants has been almost twice as efficient as Jonathan Taylor. These defenses are turning their opponents into MVP candidates.

Both offenses are good enough for me, too. Assuming Marcus Mariota starts, he has been about league-average efficiency wise in the games he has started. Jaxson Dart has outperformed expectations through the air once you adjust for the opponents he has faced. There's juice on both sides.

The biggest concern for me is that Giants interim head coach Mike Kafka seems determined to call a conservative offense and run out the clock on the season. Still, even when I downgrade the Giants' projected pace, I wind up having this total in the 50s. Thus, I do think you could consider an alt over here, but -120 is still a fair price for me given it gets us a win on a key number of 47.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.