3 NHL Best Bets and Predictions for Friday 12/6/24

Whether it's moneylines or total goals, there are plenty of ways to bet on the NHL action all season. It's a long 82-game campaign, meaning that the best selections of each night can be very different based on backup goalies coming into play, injuries that add up, and if teams are due for positive or negative swings.

For additional NHL insights, check out FanDuel Research's daily NHL projections, powered by numberFire.

Let's dive into the best bets for tonight.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All NHL betting odds and totals are from the NHL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. All advanced statistics are used from MoneyPuck.com and NaturalStatTrick.com. Lineup notes come from Daily Faceoff.

NHL Betting Picks Today

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Pittsburgh Penguins vs. New York Rangers

Penguins Moneyline (+158)

The Metropolitan Division remains the most tightly contested division in the NHL. Just 11 points separate the first-place Washington Capitals from the eight-place New York Islanders. Sandwiched between those teams are the Pittsburgh Penguins and New York Rangers, who battle it out at MSG on Friday night.

The Rangers have been on a hell of a slide lately. New York has dropped six of its past seven, getting outclassed by a wide margin nightly. Unfortunately, their metrics support the idea that there’s no end in sight. The Broadway Blueshirts have posted a cumulative 41.7% expected goals-for rating, easily the worst mark in the NHL over that stretch. Further, they’ve been outplayed in all but two of those contests. That puts them at a deficit against a resilient Penguins team.

Pittsburgh is just starting to reap the rewards of its improved on-ice product. The Pens have outplayed their opponents in three of the past four, relying on improved defensive efficiency to tilt the ice in their favor. Moreover, they’re finally starting to get consistent scoring from their forwards corps. However, with their .975 PDO still hovering below average, the Penguins remain natural progression candidates over the coming weeks.

At the current offering, there’s an edge in backing the Penguins as steep road underdogs. They wield a substantive analytics advantage, and New York needs to get its metrics in order before more wins start to follow.

Dallas Stars vs. Vegas Golden Knights

Stars Moneyline (-120)

Two formidable Western Conference foes take to the ice in Sin City on Friday night, with the Vegas Golden Knights hosting the Dallas Stars. Vegas is coming off consecutive wins, but the former expansion franchise still doesn’t have robust metrics propping up sustained success. As a result, there may be value in backing the Stars as road chalk.

While the Knights’ metrics have improved, they still operate well above expected. Their expected goals-for rating of 47.5% is six points below the actual, resulting in an inflated 1.011 PDO. Inevitably, those metrics will balance out, yielding more losses for the Golden Knights. That correction should begin with tonight’s showdown versus Dallas.

Like their Friday night counterparts, the Stars have turned a corner with their recent efforts. Dallas has outplayed its opponents in four of seven, a stretch with an actual goals-for rating of 46.7%. Across that seven-game sample, we’ve seen the Stars return to their defensive ways, but a more robust offensive output should be the next domino to fall. They’ve totaled seven goals at five-on-five over their five most recent outings, dropping their shooting percentage to just 5.9%. With sustained production, improved scoring efficiency is on the horizon.

The regression-bound Golden Knights can facilitate the boost in scoring. Vegas ranks as one of the worst defensive teams in the league, which should allow the Stars northward climb. Dallas is a deserving favorite, but the price should be higher than its current valuation.

Columbus Blue Jackets vs. Vancouver Canucks

Canucks Moneyline (-220)

We see value in another favorite, highlighting the Vancouver Canucks in their inter-conference tilt versus the Columbus Blue Jackets. The Jackets were operating well outside of normal range for an extended period, and last night’s loss to the Edmonton Oilers is a sign of things to come for Columbus.

Riding a sterling 5-0-1 stretch, the Jackets were flying high at the end of November. However, those wins weren’t supported by underlying metrics. Consequently, Columbus was due for more losses – a fact we’ve seen play out over its last two. The Jackets have been outscored 9-3 by the Oilers and Calgary Flames, with even more concerning analytics. Both game scores came in below 36.5%, which should persist against the Canucks.

Vancouver returns home after an extended road trip and is due for improved goaltending, which should come against a beleaguered Jackets team. Despite limiting their past four opponents to an average of 6.5 high-danger chances, Canucks goalies have been torched for 15 goals, with 12 of those coming at five-on-five. As a result, their team save percentage has cratered to .872. Canucks goaltenders have been well-insulated lately, and we should start to see a vast improvement in terms of save percentage.

Columbus’ offense is at an unsustainable pace. Now playing on the second night of a back-to-back and their third game in four nights, we predict they will hit a brick wall in Vancouver. As a result, there’s an implied advantage in backing the Canucks as -225 favorites on home ice.

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