3 Best NFL Bets and Predictions for Seahawks at Bears on Thursday Night Football

Thursday Night Football is a big one for the Seattle Seahawks.

They're now +500 to win the NFC West at FanDuel Sportsbook, and numberFire's power rankings have their playoff odds at 11.4%. In order to stay alive, they need a win tonight against the Chicago Bears.

But as always this time of the year, it's important to remember that both teams have a big incentive to win, and the team with the highest playoff leverage doesn't always pull through. With that in mind, which bets should we target as the Seahawks fight for their playoff lives?

Using the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook as a guide, here are the best bets for this week's Thursday night game.

All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.

Seahawks at Bears Betting Picks

Bears +3.5 (-115)

If you want to swing for the fences and bet the Bears' moneyline, I've got value in that, too. But as we'll discuss later, I expect this game to be low-scoring, upping the incentive to take the points.

Most of the incentive to bet the Bears here is that the Seahawks' offense seems overrated. They are just 21st in numberFire's schedule-adjusted offensive rankings, only 4 spots ahead of the Bears. They're 21st passing and 25th rushing as offensive-line woes have made things difficult on Geno Smith and the running backs.

The Bears have also shown at least slight improvements since they made the switch at offensive coordinator. In five games with Thomas Brown calling plays, the offense has averaged 0.10 Adjusted Passing Net Expected Points (NEP, numberFire's EPA metric) per play. That's up from -0.06 under Shane Waldron.

As a result, my model has the Seahawks as just slight favorites here. Whether you prefer the moneyline or the points, I do think the market is overrating Seattle to the point where we can bet the Bears.

Total Under 42.5 (-115)

Liking the total stems from the point discussed earlier: neither offense in this one grades out well. We should also give some kudos to the Seahawks' defense.

They enter this week as numberFire's 10th-ranked defense overall. That's despite a rough stretch earlier this year where injuries decimated their front, leading to tremendously poor play. Their rush defense, specifically, has ticked up since the arrival of Ernest Jones, making them a respectable unit.

Although the Bears have slid of late, they're still ranked 18th defensively for the season. It's not a bottom-dwelling unit, by any means.

When you combine two decent-enough defenses with two offenses that have lacked efficiency and explosion, points can be tough to come by. As a result, my model has this total at 40.0, far enough below market for me to take the under.

Seahawks' First Drive Result: Punt (+110)

Although the Seahawks' struggles have been pronounced throughout the game, they've been most obvious in the opening script.

Across the Seahawks' first 15 games, they've punted on their opening drive 9 times. That's compared to zero touchdowns and four field-goal attempts (with two interceptions mixed in, as well).

Simply put, it ain't working.

In addition to happening at a high rate to start the season, an opening-drive punt fits in well with our other assumptions: that the Bears are competitive and the game is low-scoring. Thus, these three bets could play well if you're looking for a same-game parlay as the odds of one leg hitting do increase the odds of others hitting, as well.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.