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3 NBA Best Bets and Predictions for Wednesday 11/27/24

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3 NBA Best Bets and Predictions for Wednesday 11/27/24

The 82-game NBA regular season offers us a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. The Association features 1,230 regular season games, which can make sifting through the odds an overwhelming task.

However, various advanced statistics can help narrow the choices. numberFire's NBA power rankings and NBA game projections paired with advanced stats from the NBA can help give the inside track to quality bets.

While utilizing some of the mentioned tools, which NBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook look like the best bets today?

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

Today's Best NBA Betting Picks

Miami Heat at Charlotte Hornets

Heat Moneyline (-164)

The Miami Heat are just 4-4 on the road this season despite a +1.9 point differential in road games, and the Charlotte Hornets' 5-4 home record is tied to a -1.7 point differential.

When accounting for key injuries here (primarily on the Charlotte side) and removing garbage-time possessions (via PBPStats) as well as factoring in rest and home/road splits, my model is seeing the Heat as noticeably more favored than the -164 odds suggest.

Moneyline

Nov 28 12:10am UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

Miami's relevant net rating sits at -0.1 but the Hornets' splits really plummet without Miles Bridges and Grant Williams (both out).

Though the Hornets have a rest advantage, the numbers for me still like Miami to be favored by over five points here, so the moneyline looks appealing.

New York Knicks at Dallas Mavericks

Over 233.0 (-110)

The New York Knicks remain on the road to face the Dallas Mavericks tonight in a game televised on ESPN.

This is New York's fourth straight road game.

Unfortunately, Luka Doncic is out, and Klay Thompson is questionable.

The Mavericks' offensive rating without Doncic and Thompson on the floor but Kyrie Irving active -- once factoring out garbage-time possessions -- is still 118.1, via PBPStats.

Total Points

Over
Nov 28 12:40am UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

The Knicks -- with their expected starters active -- have an offensive rating of 124.4. They've been lighting it up all season and are second in effective field goal percentage. They're running hot of late, but even the full-season splits are strong for the Knicks.

The biggest issue here is just pace (the Knicks are bottom-four, and the Mavericks play a bit slower without Doncic), but the offensive splits for both sides still point me to an over.

Los Angeles Lakers at San Antonio Spurs

Spurs +2.0 (-110)

The Los Angeles Lakers are on the road again after a 127-100 loss last night to the Phoenix Suns, their third straight loss after a long win streak.

The San Antonio Spurs have won four straight, including a 128-115 last night in Utah.

So, nobody here has a rest advantage, and the Spurs are getting points at home, where they are 8-3 overall this season. The Lakers are 3-5 on the road.

Spread Betting

San Antonio Spurs
Nov 28 1:40am UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

When I run my model after accounting for injuries and garbage time, it likes the Spurs to be slight favorites in this spot.

In games with Victor Wembanyama active, the Spurs have a +2.0 net rating, excluding garbage time. I've got the Lakers' relevant net rating at +2.2, so it's no surprise the spread is tight.

However, after accounting for home court and a few other things, my model is seeing value on the Spurs at home here.


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Looking for the latest NBA odds? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook and check out all of the NBA betting options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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