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3 Best NFL Bets and Predictions for Ravens at Chargers on Monday Night Football

Austin Swaim
Austin SwaimASwaim3

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3 Best NFL Bets and Predictions for Ravens at Chargers on Monday Night Football

Week 12 concludes with perhaps its most high-profile matchup. For the first time since 2011, we'll have the "Harbaugh Bowl" hit primetime.

John Harbaugh's Baltimore Ravens will visit Jim Harbaugh's Los Angeles Chargers as both teams have established themselves as two of the AFC's top contenders. Baltimore is coming off a two-point loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers in a physical contest, while L.A. survived a Joe Burrow comeback to win a fever dream of a game over another AFC North squad.

In this fraternal clash, who will end up advancing one step further toward their division lead?

Using the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook as a guide, here are the best bets for this week's Monday night game.

All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.

Ravens at Chargers Betting Picks

Chargers Moneyline (+124)

Moneyline

Los Angeles Chargers
Nov 26 1:15am UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

The hardest part of this recommendation is expecting the Ravens to lose two games in a row.

Baltimore has lost a few one-score games, but numberFire's best schedule-adjusted offense is not an easy fade. The problem? In their first season without Mike Macdonald calling the defense, the Ravens' secondary has never figured it out. According to numberFire, they're the 21st-ranked overall defense and 27th-ranked pass D.

Enter a surging Justin Herbert. According to Next Gen Stats, Herbo is 10th in the NFL in expected points added per drop back over the past five weeks (0.10 EPA/db), perhaps allowing the Bolts enough firepower to keep pace with the superior defense. Jim Harbaugh's imprint is most notable in that unit, which has improved to nF's sixth-overall D in his first season.

The Chargers' home field advantage isn't ideal, but getting plus money is a good bargain. numberFire expects a Bolts win 48.7% of the time, yet these odds imply just a 45.0% chance.

Under 50.5 Points (-110)
Under 24.5 Points in Second Half (-115)

Total Match Points

Under
Nov 26 1:15am UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

Both Harbaughs value ball control and each other's ability to execute. This doesn't seem primed to be a spot where they're going to try and get into a shootout.

This total is a product of these team's stellar efficiency to average a combined 52.4 points per game this season against, at times, inferior competition. However, both of these teams tend to favor running the ball; they're both 18th or worse in pass rate over expectation.

This is also tied for the highest total of the week despite the sixth-slowest combined adjusted pace of Week 12's matchups, per Brandon Gdula's adjusted pace and pass report.

nF loves this under, assigning it a 58.2% to cash. As an anecdotal note, I want to latter this with a second-half under. In a close game, these two run-first squads should bleed clock. In a distant one, we have a good idea that these respective sidelines will make sure not to embarrass each other with a late touchdown.

2nd Half Total

Under
Nov 26 1:15am UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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