Fantasy Football Winners and Losers From Week 12
Patience isn't our must abundant resource in 2024.
It's understandable. It's frustrating when players with high expectations struggle. Thus, we can quickly write them off, assuming things will never turn around.
They did in a big way for a couple key players in Week 12.
These surprise performances don't mean these players are "fixed" or will suddenly continue producing with this as their new baseline. But even just providing hope can be huge.
Let's dig into some players who provided that in Week 12 and what it means going forward. Then we'll touch on some players whose stock is declining.
As a note, none of the "stock up" players will be the result of an injury to a teammate. For those implications, check out our Week 12 fantasy football recap, instead. All snap rate data is via Next Gen Stats.
Stock Up for Fantasy Football
Bryce Young
It was easy to write off the signs of life Bryce Young showed a couple weeks ago. He threw for just 126 yards, and it came against a middling New York Giants defense.
Sunday, though, came against the Kansas City Chiefs, and it was likely the best game of Young's career.
Young threw for 263 yards and a touchdown on 37 drop backs. More impressively, though, is that he averaged 0.20 Passing Net Expected Points (NEP, numberFire's EPA metric) per drop back. This is a good bit above league average, and it came against a team that entered the week 11th in numberFire's schedule-adjusted defensive rankings.
On the whole, Young is still at 0.04 Passing NEP per drop back since being reinstalled as starter, and that is below average. But when his pre-benching mark was -0.51 -- and he was at -0.23 as a rookie -- you'll take it.
Young still won't have a ton of fantasy appeal, but he's at least not a pure crossoff anymore. This also boosts the appeal of his pass-catchers once we're able to sort out who will earn volume there.
Jaylen Waddle
In Tua Tagovailoa first 4 games back, Jaylen Waddle had 98 total receiving yards.
On Sunday, he blew up with 144 and a touchdown.
He back.
There's still going to be bumpiness for Waddle going forward. Jonnu Smith has proven he deserves targets, and eventually, Tyreek Hill will pop up, as well. But if Waddle has this upside in his range of outcomes, he's an every-week starter in season-long again, and he's back to being firmly on the DFS radar when you like the Miami Dolphins' passing offense, as well.
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
Bucky Irving
Rachaad White was still the starter for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 12, and he could maintain that role going forward.
But Bucky Irving is playing too well to remain merely the 1B in this offense.
Irving blew up Sunday with 151 yards from scrimmage on 12 carries and 6 targets. He played 54.8% of the snaps, up from 48.3% in the final game before the bye. That number was 60.8% through the first three quarters in a blowout script.
Irving did fumble again Sunday, and that has been an issue for him. Thus, we can't expect him to suddenly jump to a 60% snap rate on a consistent basis. Plus, White is still playing decently well, especially in the passing game.
But Irving's upside is obvious. He's talented and playing in a hyper-efficient offense while getting work as both a rusher and a receiver. I want to keep buying in even while acknowledging that White and Sean Tucker will remain involved.
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
Jordan Addison
There's a lot of overlap between Jordan Addison and Waddle: yardage concerns for the secondary receiver in an offense that also features plenty of tight-end usage.
Addison had his time to shine Sunday, as well.
He turned 9 targets into a career-high 162 yards and a touchdown. It was his first game with more than 72 receiving yards this year and just the third time in his career he had topped the century mark.
I was worried Addison would get the squeeze with T.J. Hockenson back, and that did happen initially. Addison had just 128 yards in Hockenson's first three games off of IR. But Sunday proved he's still got a path to upside.
I want to remain skeptical of Addison, given this isn't the world's most efficient offense and that Justin Jefferson's target share will eventually rise. This does put Addison back on the map for DFS, though, and make him a more palatable season-long play, as well.
Courtland Sutton
Putting Courtland Sutton here isn't specific to Week 12, though he was great there with 97 yards and 2 touchdowns.
Instead, it's just to make a point that we should be talking more about this guy.
Sutton is now up to 24.6% of the Denver Broncos' overall targets with 38.8% of the deep targets (more than 15 yards beyond the line of scrimmage) and 35.3% in the red zone.
That deep number is key, too. Bo Nix is averaging 7.1 deep balls per game, much higher than you'd expect for someone with a 7.7-yard aDOT. He's doing the touchdown-or-checkdown routine, and it's working brilliantly.
The arrow is up on this entire offense, and Sutton is the catalyst of the skill players. He's a tremendous season-long starter and someone we should target in DFS even when the Broncos aren't in amazing game environments.
Stock Down for Fantasy Football
DeAndre Hopkins
I had been assuming that as DeAndre Hopkins had more time with the Kansas City Chiefs, his role would expand.
Instead, we're seeing the opposite happen. Hopkins' route rate declined Sunday for the fourth consecutive game.
Game | Route Rate |
---|---|
Week 8 | 33.3% |
Week 9 | 65.3% |
Week 10 | 57.1% |
Week 11 | 54.3% |
Week 12 | 40.4% |
Concerningly, those final two marks have come with JuJu Smith-Schuster back in the lineup, giving the Chiefs another viable pass-catcher. Smith-Schuster ran more routes than Hopkins in Week 12.
Hopkins has still been very good when he has been out there. He's at 2.10 yards per route run and has earned a target on 24.1% of his routes. Thus, if the Chiefs were to give him a full compliment of snaps, he'd likely be a great fantasy option. He's just not there now.
I'm still willing to roll the dice on Hopkins in season-long, given the touchdown upside in this offense. I just want to give alternatives longer consideration until we see Hopkins' role start to tick back up.
Kyren Williams
Given Kyren Williams' red-zone involvement, adding Puka Nacua into the fold should be great for him. A more efficient offense means more red-zone trips, and more red-zone trips mean more short touchdowns for Williams.
But in reality, Williams' role has tailed off of late, and it directly overlaps with Nacua's return.
We've got a five-game sample with Nacua back in the lineup. Here are Williams' splits before and after that. "RZ Share" is the percentage of the team's carries or targets Williams has gotten in the red zone during this time.
Kyren Williams | Carries | Targets | Yards From Scrimmage | RZ Share |
---|---|---|---|---|
Weeks 1 to 7 | 19.3 | 2.5 | 84.5 | 56.9% |
Weeks 8 to 12 | 18.2 | 3.2 | 90.2 | 41.9% |
To be clear, a 41.9% red-zone share is still a very strong number for a running back. It's just not "top-of-the-league" good, which is where he was at before.
The past two games, Williams has failed to record a single target, and you can understand why with more viable options in the mix. It's just chipping away at his paths to a ceiling game if he is going to lose work there and not have his typically elite red-zone role.
In season-long, you'd need the most loaded roster imaginable to consider benching Williams. This is moreso a note for DFS that things aren't quite as rosy as they were before, meaning the odds he burns us for not using him are declining.
Rhamondre Stevenson
The past few weeks, Rhamondre Stevenson's role had been back on the upswing following his mid-season benching. He had played 70% of the snaps in four straight games.
That came crashing back down in a blowout against the Dolphins.
Stevenson played just 39.7% of the snaps, his lowest mark this year. Part of that was due to the lopsided score, but even in the first half, Stevenson's snap rate was just 58.3%. That would have been his lowest since Week 7.
Stevenson already lacks upside as he's not the world's most explosive player. If we have to lower his median expectation in games where the New England Patriots are in catch-up mode, that's going to drastically reduce his appeal.
I'm still fine using Stevenson in season-long if he's my best option. We'll just want to be extra wary in spots where the Patriots are big underdogs, knowing he'll lose snaps should things get out of hand.
The Giants' Offense
Entering Sunday, you kinda knew things were going to get rough for the New York Giants with Tommy DeVito at quarterback. It's just the degree to which things collapsed that forces us to adjust down even more.
The Giants scored just seven points at home against a team that entered as numberFire's 29th-ranked defense. Those seven points came while trailing by 30 in the 4th quarter.
They've embraced the tank.
This is a massive bummer because Malik Nabers and Tyrone Tracy Jr. are both incredibly fun to watch. And they'll both still be startable this upcoming week in a plus matchup against the Dallas Cowboys.
We just really need to do our best to avoid the other options in this offense until further notice. And with Nabers and Tracy, consider the odds of the offense completely bottoming out when you're weighing alternatives within your lineups.
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
New to FanDuel Sportsbook? You’ll receive $150 in Bonus Bets if your first bet of $5+ wins! See here for full terms and conditions. Learn about today’s other offers at FanDuel Sportsbook Promos.
Which bets stand out to you for Week 13? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's latest NFL betting odds to see the full menu of options.
Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!
The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.