3 Best MLB NRFI Bets on Tuesday 8/12/25

The MLB season is an annual marathon that gives us months of daily betting markets to consider.

While traditional player props like home runs and strikeouts remain popular options, one market that's gained steam is betting whether or not no runs will be scored in the first inning -- aka a No Run First Inning (NRFI) bet.

On FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB odds, we can find NRFI odds listed as 1st Inning Over/Under 0.5 Runs odds under each MLB game.

Where can we find value in this unique prop market today?

Please note: lines and projections are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NRFI Betting Picks for Today

Atlanta Braves at New York Mets

Under 1st Inning 0.5 Runs (-122)

It's safe to say we haven't seen the Spencer Strider (11-4 NRFI record) we're accustomed to watching, as the hard-throwing righty has experienced a decline in his fastball velocity, resulting in him ranking in the 45th percentile in xERA (4.02) and 35th percentile in hard-hit rate (42.3%). Nevertheless, I'm backing Strider to help achieve a NRFI in Tuesday's clash between the Atlanta Braves and New York Mets.

Along with Strider having a 2-0 NRFI record versus the Mets this season, he's posting a formidable 3.85 xFIP in the first inning, and we know he can still rack up Ks with his 28.0% strikeout rate and 14.5% swinging strike rate. On top of that, New York has logged the 10th-worst wOBA (.296), 10th-worst wRC+ (92), and 12th-highest strikeout rate (24.2%) in the opening inning across the last 30 days.

The Mets will have Clay Holmes (19-4 NRFI record) making his 24th start of the campaign, and the experienced hurler owns a 2-0 NRFI record against the Braves in 2025. Even though Holmes has a 4.25 xFIP and 12.5% walk rate in the opening frame this year, his 95th-percentile groundball rate (56.7%) could come in handy in the first inning against an Atlanta squad that has the 13th-worst wOBA (.320), 14th-worst wRC+ (107), 11th-worst ISO (.133), and 7th-highest strikeout rate (27.1%) in the first inning over the last 30 days of action.

Boston Red Sox at Houston Astros

Over 1st Inning 0.5 Runs (-115)

With Dustin May (12-7 NRFI record) and Spencer Arrighetti (2-1 NRFI record) on the bump for Tuesday's Boston Red Sox-Houston Astros showdown, my interest lies in the YRFI market.

Among pitchers with 15-plus starts this season, May is posting the 18th-worst xFIP (4.99) and 28th-lowest strikeout rate (19.0%) in the first inning while he is also recording a below-average 10.7% walk rate in the opening frame.

Additionally, May has reverse splits in the strikeout department, accruing a 24.7% strikeout rate against lefties (compared to just a 16.8% strikeout rate against righties), which isn't ideal versus an Astros team that can load up on right-handed hitters. Over the last 30 days, Houston has tallied the ninth-best wOBA (.380), ninth-best wRC+ (146), ninth-best ISO (.234), and eighth-lowest strikeout rate (19.2%) in the first inning.

As for the Red Sox, they've earned the seventh-best wOBA (.343), ninth-best wRC+ (115), and ninth-best ISO (.187) across the last 14 days, and Arrighetti is making just his second start from returning from injury. Although it's an extremely small sample of three starts in 2025, Arrighetti is producing a forgettable 9.7% walk rate and 45.2% hard-hit rate while he surrendered a run in the first inning of his most recent outing.

Tampa Bay Rays at Athletics

Under 1st Inning 0.5 Runs (+108)

There's certainly some risk in taking a NRFI in a game that takes place at hitter-friendly Sutter Health Park (second in park factor in 2025), but the pitching matchup is tough to ignore at these plus-money odds. Currently, we're set to see Shane Baz (20-3 NRFI record) square off against Jacob Lopez (12-2 NRFI record) in Tuesday's contest.

While Baz undoubtedly has his warts in other innings, he's excelled in the first inning with a 3.44 xFIP, 1.00 WHIP, 26.1% strikeout rate, and 6.5% walk rate in the opening frame. Aside from Baz also being one of 10 pitchers with 15-plus starts this year to not cough up a homer in the first inning, his career-best 47.5% groundball rate could be put to good use to accumulate three quick outs in this matchup.

Despite Lopez possessing a woeful 5.84 xFIP and 16.1% walk rate in the first inning of his starts, he just needs to avoid issuing free passes to come out clean in the opening frame, as he's carrying a .200 BABIP in the first inning. Luckily for Lopez, the Tampa Bay Rays are sporting the third-worst wOBA (.285), third-worst wRC+ (81), second-highest strikeout rate (26.8%), and second-lowest walk rate (5.2%) in baseball across the last 14 days.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.