3 Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets for Friday 8/15/25

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Which home run props stand out for today's MLB action?

Utilizing our MLB home run projections as a guiding light, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and our MLB projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best Home Run Props

Fernando Tatis Jr. to Hit a Home Run (+340)

The San Diego Padres and Los Angeles Dodgers open an important three-game series tonight in LA, and I like Fernando Tatis Jr. in a matchup with Clayton Kershaw.

Kershaw is sporting a 3.14 ERA, but his expected ERA sits at 3.97 while his SIERA is up at 4.52. He's striking out just 15.2% of hitters and has been much worse at home (4.69 xFIP and 1.22 HR/9) than on the road (3.81 xFIP and 0.26 HR/9).

Tatis has been struggling to get the ball in the air this season, but that isn't as big of a concern for him versus southpaws as he boasts a 40.0% fly-ball rate in the split.

The good times should keep rolling once Kershaw exits as the Dodgers' bullpen is giving up the fifth-most homers per nine innings (1.73) over the last 14 days.

Vinnie Pasquantino to Hit a Home Run (+460)

Vinnie Pasquantino is on a heater, and he can keep it going against right-hander Aaron Civale.

Pasquantino has popped three jacks over his last four games, and he's at his best versus righties, mashing his way to a .347 wOBA and 42.8% fly-ball rate in the split. Of his 22 tanks this year, 17 have come with the platoon advantage.

Civale is the owner of a 4.64 SIERA, 19.6% K rate and 8.1% swinging-strike rate. Lefties have tagged him for a 48.5% fly-ball rate. On top of that, the Chicago White Sox's bullpen is 28th in reliever xFIP (4.52) this campaign.

Colby Thomas to Hit a Home Run (+750)

A matchup with a lefty has me interested in Colby Thomas' long home run odds.

While Thomas has mostly struggled since getting called up, there are some intriguing numbers in his minor-league profile, and he might be starting to turn the corner in the bigs.

Across 384 Triple-A plate appearances this year, Thomas smacked 18 long balls. In 2024, he recorded 31 dingers over two levels on his way to an eye-popping 80 extra-base hits. In short, he's got power, and now he gets to hit in one of MLB's best venues for offense as Sutter Health Park ranks second in park factor in 2025.

After initially having a tough time in The Show, Thomas reportedly made some adjustments to his swing recently, and it's starting to pay off as he has registered an exit velocity of at least 98 MPH on four of his last eight batted balls and launched his first MLB homer earlier this week -- off a lefty, too. Thomas has been slotted fourth or fifth in the lineup in three straight games after hitting lower in the order previously, so the A's must like what they're seeing.

Yusei Kikuchi is the opposing starter tonight. Kikuchi is a solid hurler, but righties own a 38.0% hard-hit rate and 43.9% fly-ball rate against him en route to 1.33 homers per nine. After Kikuchi, Thomas will face a Los Angeles Angels bullpen that has surrendered the most bombs per nine innings (1.49) in 2025.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.